1. Iceland’s Economy, Financial Markets and Pension System Már Gudmundsson Chief Economist, Central Bank of Iceland* North European Pensions & Investing Summit Stockholm, May 30-31, 2002 * Views expressed are mine and do not necessarily reflect the views of the CBI

2. Plan of the presentation The economy and financial markets: A summary The pension system Pension fund assets: Developments, composition and foreign investment Current developments

3. Iceland is small but rich Iceland has a population under 300 thousand, a GDP amounting to 8½ b. USD, a foreign exchange market with a daily turnover of only 50 million USD and a stock market capitalisation around 1/10 of a moderate size US company GDP per capita (PPP) 2000: around US$ 28 thousand, or eighth among OECD-countries.

4. Economic structure Diversified economic structure and foreign trade Fishing sector: No. 6 in the world in terms of net exports. 10% of GDP and around half of foreign exchange earnings Extensive hydro and geothermal energy resources High labour participation rates (77% on average) and a flexible labour market

5. A typical industrialised service economy apart from the size of the fishing sector

6. Financial markets Internal capital market liberalisation around the middle of the 1980s and capital movements free in the middle of the 1990s Traditional markets exist but are small Forex: Daily turnover of 50 m. USD (2001) Money: Daily turnover of 20 m. USD (2001) Bond: 6.2 billion USD (end 2001) Equity: 4.1 billion USD (end 2001)

7. The bond market Major issues (>5 yrs) are linked to CPI Majority government guaranteed Most liquid issues are housing bonds (state guaranteed) 10 liquid bonds - state funded market making agreements in place to provide liquidity and transparency Duration between 2 to 13 years – most liquid issues 8 and 13 years dur. Real yields between 5 and 6%.

8. The Icelandic bond market at end of 2001 in millions of USD Total size: 6.2 b.USD. Thereof government guaranteed 3.7 b.USD

9. The equity market Fast growing during the 1990s Leading index: ICEX 15 5-10 liquid companies Greatest market value is in financial institutions

10. An organised equity market was born in the 1990s with market capitalisation going from almost zero to over 50% of GDP (from 2 to 72 companies)

11. The problem of ageing Smaller than among most developed European countries: Younger nation High labour participation rates of the elderly Mandatory membership of fully funded pension funds (at least 10% of wages)

12. The pension system The Icelandic pension system is developing according to the three pillar principle: – A tax financed and means tested public pension, – A mandatory membership in occupational pension funds – A free individual pension saving with tax incentives 43 fully operational pension funds: Thereof 13 with employer’s guarantee and 30 without, but with a high degree of risk sharing between members

13. Pension fund assets are predicted to be at least 1½ times GDP in the middle of this century

14. Iceland is fourth among EU and EFTA-countries

15. Legislation and investments Total foreign exchange risk: 50% of assets Ceiling for equity, municipality bonds, bank bonds and other bonds is 50% for each class of assets 10% ceiling for unlisted securities (with conditions) Individual credit risk: 10% of assets, 15% of the stock of a single company and 25% of shares in mutual or equity funds

16. The shares of lending for housing finance and direct lending to pension fund members have fallen but the share of investment in equity has increased very significantly ….

17. … and the share of foreign assets has taken a jump

18. Returns have become more volatile with a bigger share of equity and foreign assets

19. The pension funds are big players in domestic financial markets (2001) P.f. assets equivalent to 34% of the zise of the credit system (13% in 1980) 44% of the stock of marketable bonds Hold around half the stock of housing bonds P.fs. owned domestic equity and shares in equity funds amounting to 11% of the size of the organised equity market

20. Outlook for the pension funds Reforms in the late 1990s: – Comprehensive legislation on pension funds – Reorganisation of public sector pension funds – Tax incentives for private pension saving Not major changes ahead: – The challenge of earning satisfactory return for rapidly growing funds in a less favourable environment – Mergers and bigger funds

21. The economic boom is over and the big current account deficit is shrinking rapidly

22. The overheating is turning into a slack, leading to a reduction in inflationary pressures

23. Government finances were consolidated during the upswing but a small structural deficit is currently emerging

24. Monetary policy Interest rates were increased during the upswing and the exchange rate appreciated The current account deficit, inflationary pressures and worse growth prospects created significant pressures on the exchange rate from the spring of 2000 Iceland adopted inflation targeting and floating exchange rate on March 27th 2001

25. Inflation targeting 2½% long run target (2003) ±1½% tolerance limits Higher tolerance ceilings 2001 and 2002: 6% and 4½%

26. Iceland abandoned exchange rate targeting at the eleventh hour and went on an inflation target under very difficult conditions on March 27 th 2001

27. Exchange rate volatility increased considerably

28. But the imbalances were finally contained and inflation is currently falling rapidly

29. The CB has therefore started the process of interest rate cuts

30. Nominal bond yields have also fallen along with lower inflationary expectations and lower CB rates. The slope of the nominal yield curve reflects confidence in lower inflation.

31. But real interest rates have remained high

32. The equity market has recovered. ICEX-15 has inreased by 30% from its low in late summer 2001 and by 11% in 2002.

33. Some useful websides The economy: – Central Bank of Iceland: www.sedlabanki.iswww.sedlabanki.is – National Economic Institute: www.ths.is – Statistics Iceland: www.statice.is Financial markets: – For foreign investor: www.bond.is – Iceland Stock Exchange: www.vi.is – Financial Supervisory Authority: www.fme.is Pension funds: – National Association of Pension Funds: www.ll.is