1. PERSPECTIVES ON MEXICAN IMMIGRATION TO THE UNITED STATES Carlos Flores Vizcarra Consul General of Mexico Phoenix, Arizona February 2008 Arizona State University Media Fellowship

2. 1.Introduction 2.Facts 3.Anti-immigrant environment in Arizona 4.The Human Dimension of Immigration 5.Migratory Policy in Mexico 6.Our future as partners Contents

3. Mexico is a sending, transit and receiving country of migrants and their families. Mexican immigration to the United States is a very complex phenomenon that touches many aspects: social, economic, cultural, and historical that interact in an intricate and difficult environment. Introduction

4. The Mexico- U.S. Binational Study on Migration concluded that four major factors determine and sustain the pattern of immigration of Mexicans to the United States: 1.A growing labor demand in the US. determined by; The aging of U.S. population, The transition to highly skilled or technical jobs Shortages resulting from constant economic growth. (4-5% in the past decade)

5. 2.The economic asymmetries between the U.S. and Mexico. 3.The magnet role of intricate social and family networks. 4.The lack of realistic “immigration policies” to solve the dynamics of “real immigration”, partly driven by NAFTA.

6. One in every four foreign-born workers in the U.S. is from Mexico. Of the 18 million foreign-born workers in the labor force, including both employed and unemployed workers, 4.9 million (27%) were born in Mexico. (U.S. Census Bureau, 2000) By 2010, some 24.7 million jobs will be created for people with low levels of education. These jobs will represent nearly 43% of all projected openings. Given the rising educational levels among native- born workers, immigrant workers are needed to fill the gaps in the labor force. (U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics, 2002) Facts

7. Mexican workers have a profound presence in the US labor market, particularly in both the services sector (Mexicans are 65% of Hispanics working in this area) and the agricultural sector (Mexicans are 92% of Hispanic working in this area). (Bureau of Labor Statistics, 2005) Immigration has little effect on native wages. This is due, in part, to the fact that immigrant workers cannot substitute natives and do not directly compete with most U.S. workers. (Economic Report of the President, 2005)

8. Over the next 50 years, new legal immigrants entering the United States will provide a net benefit of US$407 billion in present value to America’s Social Security system (National Foundation for American Policy, 2005). The average net present value of immigrants’ estimated future tax payments during their stay in the U.S. exceed the cost of the services they are expected to use in the same period by US$80,000 (Economic Report of the President, 2005)

9. The fertility rate in the US will fall below “replacement” level by 2015-2020. The number of workers age 55 and over will increase 49.3%, compared to 5.1 % increase of those among 25-54. This will create a gap between economic active population and those in retirement age (World Population Prospects, United Nations, 2005). The majority of Mexican workers in the US are in their economically active years (average age of 34). While 87% of Mexican immigrants are between the ages of 15 and 64, only 65% of US native population is part of this age group. (U.S. Current Population Survey (CPS), 2003)

10. Mexican Demography Source: INEGI 2020 2005 1940 2050 From 18 to 110 million

11. U.S. Demography Source: US Census Bureau 1940 2050 1900 2020

12. In Arizona, the total tax revenue attributable to immigrant workers was an estimated $2.4 billion. Balanced against estimated fiscal costs of $1.4 billion, the net 2004 fiscal impact of immigrants in Arizona was positive by about $940 million. (Immigrants in Arizona. Judith Gans. Udall Center for Studies in Public Policy, The University of Arizona. 2007) The 2004 total economic output attributable to immigrant workers was about $44 billion. This output included $20 billion in labor and other income and resulted in approximately 400,000 full-time-equivalent jobs. (Immigrants in Arizona. Judith Gans. Udall Center for Studies in Public Policy, The University of Arizona. 2007)

13. To this date, Arizona is the hot bed of harshest responses to undocumented immigration. The root causes of this situation are explained by several facts: a)Post 9/11 state of mind. Concerns about Homeland Security b)The tensions that derived from the figures: it is considered that 53% of the total of undocumented entries in the US takes place in Arizona. Anti-immigrant environment in Arizona

14. c)The proclivity of some public officials to capitalize on the angst that undocumented immigration generates: violence between traffickers excessive number of drop houses elevated number of hospitalized migrants environmental issues in crossing paths d)Anti-immigrant groups have sprouted; vigilantism, “minute men”, civil homeland defense, ranch rescue, and others.

15. e)Arizona has become a testing place for anti- inmigrant state, county and municipal legislation ordinances. Prop. 200 (2004) Demands that applicants of certain public benefits be verified for their migratory status. Anti- smuggling Law (2005) Ruled that illegal immigrants who conspire with human smugglers to be transported into Arizona can be prosecuted for the criminal offense of conspiracy. Prop. 300 (2006) Only U.S. citizens or legal residents are eligible to participate in adult education classes offered by the Arizona Department of Education Employer Sanctions Law (2007) Seeks to revoke state licenses held by businesses found to have “knowingly” or “intentionally” employed an undocumented worker. Also mandates the use of E-Verify to screen hires for employment eligibility

16. Immigration has become a humanitarian issue. Border Patrol operatives such as: Gatekeeper: San Diego-Tijuana (1994-1998) Hold the line: El Paso-Cd. Juárez (1993-1996) Río Grande: Mc Allen-Reynosa (1997-1999) Safeguard: Arizona (1999-) influenced the direction of immigration flows to the Sonora-Arizona border. The desertic treacherous terrains have accounted for over 2,ooo deaths. The human dimension of immigration

17. 2000 – 2006 Federal Administration:  The migration policy focused first on a migratory agreement  Sept. 11, 2001 changed the priorities for the U.S government, directing the migratory policy to the “back of list”.  The next step for the Mexican Government was to promote a “temporary worker program”, but it was ceased by the U.S. Congress for security concerns. The view of Mexican Government

18. 2006-2012 Federal Administration:  Innovate border controls making them practical, secure and efficient.  Promote economic competitiveness through a policy of economic openness to investments, principally to develop infrastructure.  With investment, increase the creation of new jobs to prevent exodus of Mexican workers.

19.  Is the U.S.-Mex bilateral relationship a strategic one? Definitions and commitments are needed.  USA FORTRESS? Physical wall, virtual wall, thousand of BP agents, National Guard, Surveillance aircrafts, motion sensors..., or do we opt for a robust REGIONAL SECURITY PERIMETER. What needs to be done?

20.  Demand and supply: the hot button issues. Do we jointly fight drug trafficking or do we simply distribute the blames?  Promote economic competitiveness in the region.  Recognize that long-term development requires: investment, renew infrastructure, human capital and enhanced productivity. What needs to be done?

21. PERSPECTIVES ON MEXICAN IMMIGRATION TO THE UNITED STATES Carlos Flores Vizcarra Consul General of Mexico Phoenix, Arizona February 2008 Arizona State University Media Fellowship

22. http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=NQBXA2XShQk&feature=related