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1/18 Long-term Scenarios for Climate Change-Implications for Energy, GHG Emissions and Air Quality Shilpa Rao, International Institute of Applied Systems Analysis Laxenburg, Austria Workshop on aspirational targets, Utrecht, Mar 5 2009
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2/18 Trends in Long-Term Scenario Development SRES scenarios (IPCC 2001) developed to examine a range of economic and demographic development outcomes- representative of uncertainty rangeSRES scenarios (IPCC 2001) developed to examine a range of economic and demographic development outcomes- representative of uncertainty range Scenarios broadly reflect policies that influence GHG emission drivers, such as demographic change, social and economic development, technological change, resource use, and pollution management. Scenarios broadly reflect policies that influence GHG emission drivers, such as demographic change, social and economic development, technological change, resource use, and pollution management. Recent long-term scenario development exercises are oriented towards examining wide range of climate change outcomes –i.e. climate first thinkingRecent long-term scenario development exercises are oriented towards examining wide range of climate change outcomes –i.e. climate first thinking
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Source: IAM Workshop, Vienna, 2008 Reference Concentration Pathway A joint community effort between Integrated Assessment Modelers (IAMs) and Earth System Modelers (ESMs)A joint community effort between Integrated Assessment Modelers (IAMs) and Earth System Modelers (ESMs) Participation of experts from air pollution and climate, for gridded level inventory data and climate model runs Models need to model all radiative forcing factors (full suite of GHGs, aerosols, chemically active gases, and land use/land cover) Scenarios extend to 2300 Produce data at higher resolution for experimental climate change and atmospheric chemistry projections
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4/18 Emissions Pathways
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5/18 Integrated Scenario Analysis at IIASA Explore uncertainty of long-term development under climate constraints through limited set of scenarios (3): A2r, B2, B1 Scenario taxonomy (H/M/L) based on: -- emissions, -- vulnerability, -- stabilization levels, Integration: energy – agriculture – forestry sectors Multi-gas analysis Assess also implications of stabilization: -- technology choice (e.g. efficiency vs. supply) -- sectorial measures (which gas, when, where) -- economics (costs and savings) -- geopolitics of energy (winners/losers)
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6/18 IIASA Integrated Assessment Framework GHG Emissions Industry, Energy, and Land-based Mitigation Deforestation & Afforestation (modeled on 0.5 x 0.5)
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7/18 Scenario Overview (World by 2100) 2000A2RB2B1 Population, 10 9 612107 GDP, 10 12 $ 27189238328 PE, EJ 402174412741045 GtC energy 727147 GtC forests 1<1 GtC-e all others 3854 GtC-e total 11351910 ppmv (CO 2 -equiv) 3701432976831 Stabil. Levels (ppm-equiv) 670-1350490-680
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8/18 Evolution of Global Primary Energy Historical Development Biomass (including Non-Commercial) Coal Oil Nuclear Renewables Gas
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9/18 Evolution of Global Primary Energy Historical Development Coal Oil Nuclear Renewables Gas Biomass (including Non-Commercial)
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10/18 Evolution of Global Primary Energy Historical Development Biomass (including Non-Commercial) Coal Oil Nuclear Renewables Gas
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11/18 Evolution of Global Primary Energy A2r GGI Scenario Biomass (including Non-Commercial) Coal Oil Nuclear Renewables Gas
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12/18 Evolution of Global Primary Energy B2 GGI Scenario Biomass (including Non-Commercial) Coal Oil Nuclear Renewables Gas
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13/18 Evolution of Global Primary Energy B1 GGI Scenario Biomass (including Non-Commercial) Coal Oil Renewables Gas Nuclear
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14/18 Global Liquids Supply A2r Scenario
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15/18 Global Liquids Supply A2r Scenario
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16/18 Global Liquids Supply A2r Scenario
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17/18 Global Liquids Supply A2r Scenario
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18/18 Global Liquids Supply B1 Scenario
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19/18 Global Liquids Supply B1 Scenario
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20/18 Global Liquids Supply B1 Scenario
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21/18 Global Liquids Supply B1 Scenario
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22/18 Climate Stabilization Scenarios Climate Sensitivity ~2.5 degrees
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23/18 Emissions & Reduction Measures Principal technology clusters – 1390 ppm target
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24/18 Emissions & Reduction Measures Principal technology clusters – 1090 ppm target
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25/18 Emissions & Reduction Measures Principal technology clusters – 970 ppm target
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26/18 Emissions & Reduction Measures Principal technology clusters – 820 ppm target
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27/18 Emissions & Reduction Measures Principal technology clusters – 670 ppm target
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28/18 Emissions & Reduction Measures Principal technology clusters – 480 ppm target
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29/18 Contribution by GHG to Mitigation
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30/18 Contribution by Sector to Mitigation
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31/18 Baseline Scenarios Primary Energy per Capita
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37/18 Baseline Scenarios Emission Intensity
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43/18 A2r Climate Policy-670 ppm CO2eq.
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44/18 Electricity Generation Western Europe, A2r_670
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45/18 Electricity Generation Centrally Planned Asia, A2r_670
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46/18 Transport Sector Centrally Planned Asia A2r_670
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47/18 Residential Sector Centrally Planned Asia, A2r_670
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48/18 NOX Emissions, A2r scenario Western Europe
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49/18 NOX Emissions, A2r scenario China
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50/18 BC Emissions, A2r In industrialized countries emissions decline in transport and industrial sectors, due to stringent regulations, technology improvement and fuel switching (synthetic fuels, hydrogen) In industrialized countries emissions decline in transport and industrial sectors, due to stringent regulations, technology improvement and fuel switching (synthetic fuels, hydrogen) In developing countries, there is a shift from traditional fuels to gas and liquid-based systems in the residential sector In developing countries, there is a shift from traditional fuels to gas and liquid-based systems in the residential sector
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51/18 Long-term development of Emissions Due to technology improvements and shifts to natural gas based fuels, intensity of fossil fuel and biomass related emissions declines over time Due to technology improvements and shifts to natural gas based fuels, intensity of fossil fuel and biomass related emissions declines over time Decoupling of pollutant emissions from CO2 Decoupling of pollutant emissions from CO2
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52/18 Co-benefits of climate mitigation, CPA A2_670 SO2, NOX
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53/18 2000 Proportional scaling Exposure driven
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54/18 2030 Proportional scaling Exposure driven
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55/18 2050 Proportional scaling Exposure driven
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56/18 2070 Proportional scaling Exposure driven
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57/18 2100 Proportional scaling Exposure driven
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58/18 Concluding Thoughts Current trends in long-term scenario development include detailed technological information for climate policy analysis Include detailed information on air pollutants developed with the AP community-albeit so far for the CMC Possibility to provide useful support to air pollution community and contribute to issues of co-benefits Possible in future to examine wide range of issues related to air quality- for example pollution related health impacts
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