1. Technology forecasting and planning
Draft the technology roadmap & Invest strategically

2. Scanning before forecasting & planning

3. Strategic technology planning
Forecasting technology
Analyze and diagnose the environment
Analyze and predict the market and customer trend and change of trend
Analyze the internal organization
Sketch the vision & mission
Re-design the organizational structure and activity
Execute the plan through operations

4. Output of planning A process of top-down & bottom-up dialogue
Decision alternatives—courses of action
Proposed schema—key entities & relations
Budgeting for R&D, marketing & production
Distribution criteria for appropriate proportions
Long-term: basic research for breakthrough, applied research based on a specific purpose, pioneering or experimental design & development of 1st stage R&D
Short-term: 2nd R&D on the fabrication, 3rd stage on the commercial design, module manufacturing

5. S-curved technology evolution
Future trends
Performance
time
current

6. Continuity/Discontinuity of technology
Migration possibility
& migration route
Performance S1 t1 t2 t3

7. The key attributes in technology forecasting
Performance growth
Complexity, efficiency, capacity, size, accuracy, compactness
Substitution possibility & speed, paradigm shift or trajectory evolution
Penetration share
Diffusion rate
Allergy, deviation, enforcement, self-reinforcement
Breakthrough possibility & timing
Value cluster

8. Critical technologies
Categories
Material
Advanced manufacturing
Information & communication
Biotech & living science
Aerospace & transportation
Energy & environmental ecology
User dimensions
National critical technologies—long-term basic research
Business/commercial emerging technologies
DOD’s Defense critical technology—specific purposes and outer-space exploration

9. Technology forecasting methods
Surveillance
Scan the environment and link to the source of innovation for quick adjustment & adoption
Expert opinions
Use the Delphi method to converge the common focus/foci
Trend analysis
Trace the time-series data and identify the evolutionary pattern and the driving forces
Modeling
Articulate a forecasting function composed several critical influencers
Scenario analysis
Preview possible events and evolution patterns

10. Japan technology forecasts based on the Delphi method

11. Japan technology forecasts for core technologies

12. Technology road map Time horizontal evolution
Technological relatedness
Application extension

13. e.g., Technology road map of mobile standard evolution
CDMA2000 1x
IS-95C
CDMA2000 1x EV DO
CDMA2000 1x EV DV
cdmaOne
IS-95A
IS-95B
GPRS
EDGE
GSM
HSCSD
PDC
WCDMA
PDC-P
PHS 2G
2.5G 3G
主要演化路徑
較少演化路徑

14. e.g., Technology road map of telecom services

15. Technology landscape Scanning the important technology entities Matter
Energy
Information
Mobility/Input
e.g., mega magents enhance the asorbability of tiny molecule
e.g., mega magents accelerate the friction-less transmission
e.g., mega magents trace micro magnetic particle sensitively
transformation
e.g., mega magents enhance plastic deformation
e.g., mega magents promote the efficiency of micro-motor
e.g., mega magents facilitate the change of electricity/ microwave into voice
Storage/ output
e.g., mega magents facilitate the refrigeration
e.g., mega magents possess energy durably
e.g., mega magents support MO disk for large volume of data

16. Technology audit model
Technology environment
Technology classification
Analyze the market and customer
Evaluate the innovation process
Analyze the value-added activity
Analyze the technology pool & technology acquisition

17. Technology environment
Leadership for technology championship & pioneering research
Phase with the business strategy
Organizational level
Culture of learning, communication and innovation
Staffing system for innovation incentive

18. Technology classification
Product/process technology
Internal/external source, base/core, changes
Back-office technology
Internal/external technologies of administration, supporting, and logistics
Marketing technology
Marketing systems
Integrative communication of product & service

19. Analyze the market and customer
Market requirement
Assess the market growth/capacity/segments
Evaluate the marketing performance
Competitor position
Strength/weakness comparison
Benchmarking

20. Evaluate the innovation process
Idea formation
Intrepreneurship
Entrepreneurship
Technology generation
Technology push—technology inspiration
Market pull—market insight
Idea fulfillment
Time to market, break-even point

21. Analyze the value-added activity
R&D
Team management, investment portfolio, risk management, experience effect, synergy effect
Operation
Production/marketing enhancement
Environmentalism
Investigate user’s behavior of product disposal
Green product & continuous business concept

22. Analyze the technology pool & technology acquisition
Acquisition methods and performance
Internal development
External reciprocate collaboration in research/production/marketing
Investment in the stick share
Technology transfer
Transfer procedures
Internal/external staff rotation
Explicit/implicit dimension of know-how
Profit exploitation
Sunk cost analysis
Technology archive
Technology protection
Assess the IPR regime

23. Planning according to TLC
Selective
divestment
Performance
Base
technology
Systemic
establish
Core
technology
Selective
investment
surveillance
Phase-in
technology
emerging
growing
mature
decline
time
current

24. Integration of business strategy & technology strategy
Reviewing Business environment
Impacted business
Business segment & position
Strategic alternative formation
Strategy audit
Reviewing Technology environment
Impacted technology
Technology segment & position
Strategic choice & resource deployment
Strategic control
Strategy execution
B-tech approach

25. The role of CTO Forecast technology and analyze the business goals
Develop the corporate technology capability
Maintain the sustainable profit and creativity of technology portfolio
Develop informal and formal alliance network of technology
Execute technology auditing
Technology transfer and protection
As a technology gatekeeper for anti-leakage of technology and proactive acquisition

26. ASSETS structured thinking about technology
Assess current situation
gap analysis
Specify technology strategy
Expected future
Select technology portfolio
Prioritize the candidates
Execute technology investments
Establish the task force
Transfer results for deployment
Configuration for profit
Secure long-term position
Evaluation and learning for capability

27. Extended readings
Van Wyk, Rias J. (1997), “Strategic Technology Scanning,” Technological Forecasting and Social Change, Vol. 55, pp
Van Wyk, Rias J., G. Haour, and S. G. Japp (1991), “Permanent Magnets: A Technological Analysis,” R&D Management, Vol.21, No. 4, pp
Mahajan, Vijay and Robert A. Peterson (1985), Models for Innovation Diffusion, Quantitative Applications in the Social Sciences, Sage University Press.