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UK CCSC September 2007 UK CCSC September 2007 Marine Environmental Impacts Jerry Blackford, Nancy Jones, Steve Widdicombe, Dave Lowe, Carol Turley, Andy.

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Presentation on theme: "UK CCSC September 2007 UK CCSC September 2007 Marine Environmental Impacts Jerry Blackford, Nancy Jones, Steve Widdicombe, Dave Lowe, Carol Turley, Andy."— Presentation transcript:

1 UK CCSC September 2007 UK CCSC September 2007 Marine Environmental Impacts Jerry Blackford, Nancy Jones, Steve Widdicombe, Dave Lowe, Carol Turley, Andy Rees and others…

2 Modelling Regional scale impacts of distinct CO2 additions in the North Sea. J C Blackford 1,* & N Jones 1 R Proctor 2 & J Holt 2 1 Plymouth Marine Laboratory, Prospect Place, Plymouth, PL1 3DH, UK. 2 Proudman Oceanographic Laboratory, 6 Brownlow Street, Liverpool, L3 5DA, UK. Abstract A coupled hydrodynamic – ecosystem – carbonate system model applied to the North West European shelf seas is used to simulate the consequences of distinct CO2 additions such as those that could arise from a failure of geological sequestration schemes. The choice of leak scenario is guided by only a small number of available observations and requires several assumptions; hence the simulations reported on are engineered to be worse case scenarios. Only the most extreme scenarios are capable of producing perturbations that are likely to have environmental consequences beyond the immediate vicinity of a leak and these only in restricted areas. We show that, given the available evidence, the environmental impact of a sequestration leak is likely to be insignificant when compared to the expected impact from continued non-mitigated atmospheric CO2 emissions and the subsequent acidification of the marine system. We also conclude that far more research, including both leak simulations and assessment of ecological impacts is necessary to fully understand the impact of CO2 additions to the marine system. Submitted to Marine Pollution bulletin, Under Review

3 Modelling ScenarioSite Input duration days Depth m † Input concentration Daily input per metre squared Daily input to model environment Total input mmol.m -3.d -1 Carbon g.m -2.d -1 CO 2 g.m -2.d -1 Carbon tonnes. box -1.d -1 CO 2 tonnes. box -1.d -1 Carbon tonnes CO 2 tonnes Seepage - low North3657.70.5 0.0460.1682.258.238233018 South3651.62.42 Seepage - high North3657.750.0 4.616.8225.0823.082307301791 South3651.6242.0 Short term leak - low North1138.050.00 82.800303.6004057.214876.4405714876 South128.5242.00 Short term leak - high North1138.0500.00 828.0003036.00040572.0148764.040572148764 South128.52424.00 Long term leak North365138.050.00 82.800303.6004057.214876.414808785429886 South36528.5242.00 Scenarios

4 Modelling Modelling leak scenarios: okwarning danger OA

5 Modelling Modelling leak scenarios: okwarning danger OA Timing of leak relative to tidal cycle could be crucial North Site South Site

6 Modelling: Predicted sensitivities Pelagic: Functionally Fast Benthic: Functionally Slow Oxic Redox Anox ReSeeding Mixing Recovery is a big issue for the benthic system, not the pelagic

7 Sediment Biogeochemical response. 4 pH treatments: 8.0, 7.3, 6.5 and 5.6 2 sediment types: Muddy silt and fine sand Plymouth Marine Laboratory Norwegian Institute for Water Research Water pump for circulation Control box pH & temp sensor CO 2 gas Regulator LAN / internet connection Natural seawater Acidified seawater Impact of pH on a range of species: Psammechinus miliaris (Sea urchin, hard bottom) Strongylocentrotus droebachiensis (Sea urchin, hard bottom) Brissopsis lyrifera (Sea urchin, burrows in muddy sediment) Echinocardium cordatum (Sea urchin, burrows in sandy sediment) Ophiura ophiura (Brittlestar, sediment surface) Amphiura filiformis (Brittlestar, burrows in sediment) Nereis virens (Polychaete worm, burrows in sediment) Mytilus edulis (Bivalve) Callianassa subteranea (Burrowing shrimp) Upogebia deltuara (Burrowing shrimp) Impact of pH : Benthic diversity Nutrient flux Predator / prey interactions

8 SandMud NI = -101.9 + 33.99pH 5.56.07.06.57.58.0 175 225 200 150 125 100 75 50 F = 17.02; p = 0.001 NI = -149.4 + 28.86pH 5.56.07.06.57.58.0 175 225 200 150 125 100 75 F = 69.49; p = 0.000 2 weeks20 weeks S = -13.35 + 5.626pH F = 41.24; p = 0.000 25 35 30 20 15 5.56.07.06.57.58.0 n.s. F = 14.48; p = 0.001 S = -0.66 + 4.427pH 40 50 45 35 25 20 30 5.56.07.06.57.58.0 F = 5.57; p = 0.030 S = -58.95 + 12.05pH F = 61.27; p = 0.000 20 40 30 10 0 5.56.07.06.57.58.0 NI = -289.5 + 71.62pH 5.56.07.06.57.58.0 200 400 300 100 0 F = 20.50; p = 0.000 300 500 400 200 100 NI = -67.0 + 51.10pH F = 3.75; p = 0.069 5.56.07.06.57.58.0 n.s. 2 weeks20 weeks pH and macrofaunal diversity number of species number of indvs evenness Biodiversity is impacted

9 7.5 2.0 3.0 2.5 1.5 1.0 0.5 0 5.56.07.06.57.58.0 NO 2 = -2.862 + 0.5081pH -0.5 F = 15.81; p = 0.001 Seawater pH 5.56.07.06.57.58.0 60 100 80 40 20 0 SiO = -70.84 + 18.56pH F = 7.41; p = 0.014 SiO = -61.94 + 16.31pH 60 100 80 40 20 0 5.56.07.06.57.58.0 F = 8.85; p = 0.008 NH 4 = 350.9 – 39.60pH 200 300 250 150 100 50 0 5.56.07.06.57.58.0 F = 5.13; p = 0.036 NH 4 = 104.5 – 13.17pH 40 60 50 30 20 10 0 -10 -20 5.56.07.06.57.58.0 NO 3 = 108.5 + 19.00pH 5.56.07.06.57.58.0 20 60 40 0 -20 F = 35.90; p = 0.000 5.56.07.06.57.58.0 10 30 20 0 -10 -20 NO 3 = -41.73 + 7.496pH F = 18.77; p = 0.000 5.56.07.06.57.58.0 0.25 0.75 0.50 0.00 NO 2 = -1.573 + 0.278pH Nitrite Nitrate Ammonium Silicate 2 weeks20 weeks F = 11.75; p = 0.003 F = 53.83; p = 0.000 Sand NH 4 = 351.1 – 42.73pH 5.56.07.06.57.58.0 F = 30.72; p = 0.000 20 40 30 10 0 NH 4 = 85.15 – 9.453pH 5.56.0 7.06.58.0 F = 18.72; p = 0.001 0.25 0.75 0.50 0.00 NO 2 = -1.429 + 0.2496pH 5.56.07.06.57.58.0 F = 42.65; p = 0.000 ns 80 160 120 40 0 ns 2 weeks20 weeks Mud ns Seawater pH pH and nutrient flux Benthic function is affected

10 Impact on Benthic Physiology Brissopsis lyrifera Echinocardium cordatum Ophiura ophiura Amphiura filiformis Muddy Sediments Surface Dwellers Sandy Sediments Deeper Dwellers Impacts on Cellular Processes in Sediment Dwelling Echinoderms.

11 Impact on Lysosomes Lysosomal Neutral Red Retention Damaged lysosomes exhibit pathological responses including enlargement and leakage – the greater the damage the faster the response HealthyDamaged

12 Echinocardium Impact on Gut Physiology Control pH 8 Brissopsis pH 6.8 pH 7.2pH 7.6 Ophiura

13 Impact on reproductive organs Control pH 7.6 pH 6.8 pH 7.2

14 Experiments: example regrowth Arm regeneration in Amphiura filiformis at low pH Hannah Wood 35 day exposure stress response Nutritional quality of regenerated arms ? Long term, slow onset exposures

15 Policy & Communications Carol: Presentation on CCS and OA to Jonathon Shaw (Minister for Marine, Landscape and Rural Affairs and Minister for the South East);Deborah Wells (Senior Private Secretary to Jonathon Shaw); Trevor Hutchings (Deputy Director, Fishing Industry Management Division - Defra), Diana Linskey (Deputy Director Marine Environment Division - Defra); Gail Clarke (Fishing Industry Management Division - Defra); Linda Gilroy (MP, Plymouth) during visit to PML - July 07 Steve: “Predicting the impact of seawater acidification on the marine environment” 2nd Meeting of the Scientific Group Intercessional Technical Working Group on CO2 Sequestration within the framework of the Convention on the Prevention of Marine Pollution by Dumping Wastes and Other Matter, 1972, Oslo, Norway 16th-20th April 2007 Mel, Jerry, Steve: “Ocean Acidification and Carbon Capture and Storage” Defra Policy ‘Snapshot’ presentation, London 21st May 2007. Steve: “Predicting the impact of leakage on the North Sea ecosystem” Carbon Capture and Storage Association, Environmental Impact Assessment Workshop, London 23rd August 2007. Future Carol: Planned outreach activities in next 3 months: presentations at Royal Soc on CCS organised by institutes of Biology Chemistry and Physics and at a workshop in Bergen Jerry: Carbon Transportation and Storage, London, 4 th December. www.iom3.org.events/carbonwww.iom3.org.events/carbon

16 Future Plans Talking with BP re sensible leakage scenarios. Fine scale modelling, 1.8 km grid and ~50m Experiment: Impact of acidification on the uptake of metals by marine organisms In October 2007 an experiment will be conducted that addresses the following hypothesis: H0: Seawater acidification will not affect the bioaccumulation of metals in 4 different marine organisms. We will look at 2 elevated pH treatments plus controls. We will add organisms from 4 different taxa (annelid, mollusc, crustacean and echinoderm) to sediment from the Fal estuary which is naturally contaminated by metals. After a period of exposure we will analyse the organisms for metal bioaccumulation. Metals to be assessed are potentially: Ag, As, Cd, Co, Cr, Cu, Fe, Mn, Ni, Pb, Zn.

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