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Creating Winning Conditions: Michael Holden | Canada West Foundation | May 2011 What governments can do to advance economic relations with China and India
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Presentation Overview 1.Current State of Trade and Investment 2.Recent Policy Initiatives 3.Additional Policy Considerations Creating Winning Conditions: What governments can do to advance economic relations with China and India | Michael Holden | May 2011
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Canada’s trade relationship with China and India is expanding rapidly… Creating Winning Conditions: What governments can do to advance economic relations with China and India | Michael Holden | May 2011 Source: CWF calculations using Statistics Canada data
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…as is Alberta’s. Creating Winning Conditions: What governments can do to advance economic relations with China and India | Michael Holden | May 2011 Source: CWF calculations using Statistics Canada data
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China is a far more significant trading partner, both nationally… 17.5% of western Canada’s exports in 2009. 2010 Trade To China: Exports: $13.2 b Imports: $44.5 b To India: Exports: $2.1 b Imports: $2.1 b 2010 Trade To China: Exports: $13.2 b Imports: $44.5 b To India: Exports: $2.1 b Imports: $2.1 b Source: CWF calculations using Statistics Canada data as a % of total trade worldwide Creating Winning Conditions: What governments can do to advance economic relations with China and India | Michael Holden | May 2011
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…and provincially. Source: CWF calculations using Statistics Canada data $141 million Creating Winning Conditions: What governments can do to advance economic relations with China and India | Michael Holden | May 2011
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Even in China, however, Canada is running to stand still. Source: CWF calculations using data from the National Bureau of Statistics of China and the Indian Department of Commerce Creating Winning Conditions: What governments can do to advance economic relations with China and India | Michael Holden | May 2011
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Both China and India are emerging as major sources of FDI into Canada. FDI into Canada (2010): China: Total FDI: $14.1 billion 7 th -largest source of FDI into Canada India: Total FDI: $6.6 billion 11 th -largest source of FDI into Canada FDI into Canada (2010): China: Total FDI: $14.1 billion 7 th -largest source of FDI into Canada India: Total FDI: $6.6 billion 11 th -largest source of FDI into Canada Source: Statistics Canada Creating Winning Conditions: What governments can do to advance economic relations with China and India | Michael Holden | May 2011
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Presentation Overview 1.Current State of Trade and Investment 2.Recent Policy Initiatives 3.Additional Policy Considerations Creating Winning Conditions: What governments can do to advance economic relations with China and India | Michael Holden | May 2011
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Federal Government Initiatives: 1.Global Commerce Strategy China and India identified as priority markets DFAIT: China and India “present enormous business opportunities and…are key links to global value chains.” India Engagement Strategy Creating Winning Conditions: What governments can do to advance economic relations with China and India | Michael Holden | May 2011
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Federal Government Initiatives: 2.Key initiatives/developments: Free trade negotiations with India (November 2010) Canada granted Approved Destination Status by China (2010) Canada-China Science and Technology Agreement (2007) BIT agreement with India (completed June 2007) Canada-India Science and Technology Agreement (2005) BIT negotiations with China (ongoing since 2004) Asia-Pacific Gateway and Corridor Initiative Creating Winning Conditions: What governments can do to advance economic relations with China and India | Michael Holden | May 2011
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Provincial Government Initiatives: 1.Fewer policy tools available for provincial governments Power to sign international treaties falls under federal jurisdiction 2. Key initiatives/developments: Frequent government-led trade missions Establishment of overseas offices New West Partnership: AB, BC, SK to cooperate on trade and investment development Creating Winning Conditions: What governments can do to advance economic relations with China and India | Michael Holden | May 2011
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Presentation Overview 1.Current State of Trade and Investment 2.Recent Policy Initiatives 3.Additional Policy Considerations Creating Winning Conditions: What governments can do to advance economic relations with China and India | Michael Holden | May 2011
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Federal Government: 1.Sustained policy commitment and focus are required Global Commerce Strategy: 13 “priority markets” include more than 90 countries Consistent and adequate funding Will a majority government improve policy efforts? 2. Domestic transportation issues need to be addressed Are APGCI investments sufficient? West coast pipeline issues and related energy policies Creating Winning Conditions: What governments can do to advance economic relations with China and India | Michael Holden | May 2011
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Federal Government: 3.Foreign direct investment rules need to be clarified China and India are becoming major investors in energy and other “strategic” Canadian assets Concerns over foreign (state-owned) control of Canadian resources Recent high-profile rejections call into question the transparency and predictability of the investment review process Creating Winning Conditions: What governments can do to advance economic relations with China and India | Michael Holden | May 2011
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Federal/Provincial Governments: 1.Improve government engagement and visibility overseas Commercial relations and government-to-government ties are closely connected in many Asia-Pacific markets Frequent visits by government leaders send an important signal about their commitment to building commercial ties Creating Winning Conditions: What governments can do to advance economic relations with China and India | Michael Holden | May 2011
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Provincial Government: 1.Continue cooperative efforts through the New West Partnership Helps to ensure consistency of messaging Presents a united front overseas Better use of available resources and market intelligence 2.Develop education- and tourism-specific strategies Service sector opportunities should not be overlooked Canada has lagged Australia and others in exploiting opportunities in education services ADS could be a boon to Alberta Creating Winning Conditions: What governments can do to advance economic relations with China and India | Michael Holden | May 2011
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Final Thoughts: 1.China and India hold enormous market potential for Alberta and Canada 2. Many policy options for improving economic ties with China and India 3. Most important determinant of success is a sustained and concerted policy effort Creating Winning Conditions: What governments can do to advance economic relations with China and India | Michael Holden | May 2011
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For all our research, commentary and activities, visit Canada West Foundation’s website at www.cwf.ca. For all the latest news, follow us at: twitter.com/CanadaWestFdn facebook.com/canadawestfoundation
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