1. Tsao Waide Saunders ∙ Rebound Effect for Lighting ∙ USAEE/IAEE NA Conference ∙ Dec 2008 The Rebound Effect: An Analysis of the Empirical Data for Lighting Sandia is a multiprogram laboratory operated by Sandia Corporation, a Lockheed Martin Company, for the United States Department of Energy’s National Security Administration under Contract DE-AC04-94AL85000. Jeff Tsao (Sandia National Laboratories) Paul Waide (International Energy Agency) Harry Saunders (Decision Processes Incorporated) 1 Consumption of 2 Affordability of 3 Relationship between White Light RYGB Light Emitting Diodes Color Mixing Optics Solid-State Lighting Decades-to-Centuries Rebound Effect

2. Tsao Waide Saunders ∙ Rebound Effect for Lighting ∙ USAEE/IAEE NA Conference ∙ Dec 2008 per capita Consumption of Light: φ (Mlmh/[per-yr]) Earth at Night (courtesy of NASA) Mills WRLD-NONGRID 1999: 0.043 IEA WRLD-GRID 2005: 32.9 Fouquet & Pearson UK 2000 Inc+Flu+HID: 46.4 1950 Inc: 5.0 1900 Gas+Ker: 0.27 1850 Gas+Can: 0.013 1800 Can+Oil: 0.0027 1750 Can: 0.0006 1700 Can: 0.00058 IEA AU+NZ 2005: 63.4 IEA FSU 2000: 38.7 IEA OECD-EU 2005: 45.9 IEA JP+KR 2005: 71.9 CN Li 2006: 16.4 IEA 2005: 13.4 Mills 1993: 2.7 Navigant US 2001: 136

3. Tsao Waide Saunders ∙ Rebound Effect for Lighting ∙ USAEE/IAEE NA Conference ∙ Dec 2008 Cost of Light: CoL ($/Mlmh) ≃ CoE/η 1 10 1 10 2 10 3 10 4 10 5 CoE ($/MWh) Luminous efficacy η (lm/W) 10 -2 100% Efficiency 10 -1 1 10 1 10 2 10 3 1 10 1 10 2 10 3 10 4 10 5 CN 1993 WRLD-NONGRID 1999 WRLD-GRID 2005 UK 1800 UK 1850 UK 1750 UK 1700 UK 1900 UK 1950 UK 2000 AU+NZ 2005 FSU 2000 OECD-EU 2005 JP+KR 2005 CN 2005 CN 2006 US 2001 10 -3 10 -2 10 -1 1 10 1 10 2 N (Bper) GDP (B$/yr) 10 1 10 2 10 3 CN 1993 WRLD-NONGRID 1999 WRLD-GRID 2005 UK 1800 UK 1850 UK 1750 UK 1700 UK 1900 UK 1950 UK 2000 AU+NZ 2005 FSU 2000 OECD-EU 2005 JP+KR 2005 CN 2006 US 2001 CN 2005 10 4 10 5 10 6 10 3 10 4 10 5 After Maddison and Univ of Groningen purchase-power- parity tabulations, in 2005 US$ 10 1.5 10 2.8 10 4.3 10 1.4 per capita gross domestic product: gdp ($/[per-yr]) = GDP/N

4. Tsao Waide Saunders ∙ Rebound Effect for Lighting ∙ USAEE/IAEE NA Conference ∙ Dec 2008 φ = β·(gdp/CoL) 10 -5 10 -2 10 1 10 4 β·gdp/CoL [Mlmh/(per-yr)] φ [Mlmh/(per-yr)] 10 4 10 1 10 -2 10 -5 CN 1993 WRLD-UNDEV 1999 WRLD-DEV 2005 UK 1800 UK 1850 UK 1750 UK 1700 UK 1900 UK 1950 UK 2000 AU+NZ 2005 FSU 2000 OECD-EU 2005 JP+KR 2005 CN 2005 CN 2006 US 2001 10 5.4 0.0072 R 2 = 0.986 Candles Gas Kerosene HID Fluorescent Incandescent SSL Consistent with φ having unit elasticity with respect to gdp and CoL Over empirical data spanning many orders of magnitude –5.4 in φ –4.3 in CoL –1.4 in gdp –3 centuries –6 continents –5 technologies