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Carbonaceous aerosols and climate change over Asia for the 1980-2030 time period Surabi Menon Lawrence Berkeley Laboratory, Berkeley, CA, USA

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Presentation on theme: "Carbonaceous aerosols and climate change over Asia for the 1980-2030 time period Surabi Menon Lawrence Berkeley Laboratory, Berkeley, CA, USA"— Presentation transcript:

1 Carbonaceous aerosols and climate change over Asia for the 1980-2030 time period Surabi Menon Lawrence Berkeley Laboratory, Berkeley, CA, USA smenon@lbl.gov Dorothy Koch and Nadine Unger Columbia University/NASA GISS, NY, USA University of Vermont, VE, USA David Streets Argonne National Laboratory, Argonne, IL, USA Better Air Quality Workshop Yogyakarta, Indonesia, December 13-15, 2006

2 Aerosol-Climate/Air Quality Effects: 1980, Present-day, 2030A1B A1B scenario: Balanced mix of technology and supply, no dominant single source of energy. Role of Black Carbon Aerosols Regional Signals Climate Sensitivity, Radiative forcing, Surface mass, Temperature, Precipitation Sensitivity Study Increase carbonaceous emissions from transportation and biofuel to 2x 2030A1B for Asia: 10S to 40 N and 58 to 120 E. Outline

3 Why focus on Aerosol-Climate Effects? Aerosol climate effects: +0.8 to – 2.1 Wm -2 Greenhouse gas climate effects: +2.96 Wm -2 (Menon 2004, Ann. Rev.) (Hansen et al. 2005, JGR)

4 Schematic of direct & indirect aerosol effects Aerosol indirect effect= Change in Cloud properties due to aerosol impacts on clouds Direct effect = Scattering/Absorption of radiation w/o clouds Modified from Lohmann (2005)

5 Aerosols and air quality over China and India Regional measurements of OC/BC over 4 cities in PDRC (Cao et al., 2004.) ~ 1/3 of PM 2.5/10 mass were carbonaceous. PM2.5: OC = 9.2 and BC = 4.1  g m -3 PM10 : OC =12.3 and BC = 5.2  g m -3 No strong seasonal fluctuations in OC and BC. Motor vehicle emissions === major source. Over India: Particulate matter more important than NO x or SO 2. Biofuels/fossil fuel combustion major contributor to deteriorating air quality. (Mitra and Sharma, 2002). BC source ratio (biofuel/total) ~ 44% in India compared to 15% globally (Venkataraman et al. 2005). OC=Organic Carbon BC =Black carbon

6 Black Carbon Sources and Distribution Black carbon is a product of incomplete combustion. Images: http://www.asthmacure.com, NASA GSFChttp://www.asthmacure.com Fossil/bio-fuel = 0.08 0.07 Biomass = 0.07 0.06 19952030A1BBurden(Tg) Over Asia: 10S-40N, 58-122E Fossil/bio-fuel = 0.22 0.17 Biomass = 0.04 0.05 19952030A1BBurden(Tg)

7 Forcing efficiencies: 2030A1B to 1995 Differences between 2030A1B and 1995 aerosol emissions *Forcing efficiency= Direct forcing Aerosol mass column burden (mg m -2 ) CaseSulfateOCBC Total (Total)(Fossil/biofuel/ biomass) (Fossil/bio- fuel) (Biomass ) Direct Forcing (Wm -2 ) -0.23+0.02-0.03-0.02-0.26 * Forcing efficiency (W g -1 ) -203-778821000

8 Forcing efficiencies: 2030A1B to 1995 Differences between 2030A1B and 1995 aerosol emissions *Forcing efficiency= Direct forcing Aerosol mass column burden (mg m -2 ) CaseSulfateOCBC Total (Total)(Fossil/biofuel/ biomass) (Fossil/bio- fuel) (Biomass ) Direct Forcing (Wm -2 ) -0.23 -0.24 +0.02 0.00 -0.03 +0.07 -0.02 -0.26 -0.19 * Forcing efficiency (W g -1 ) -203 -198 -77 - 882 1458 1000 Differences between 2030A1B_A and 1995 aerosol emissions

9 Climate Sensitivity: Black Carbon Calculate the ratio of surface temperature change to forcing for 2030 versus 1995 aerosol emissions. Ratio is a lower limit to climate sensitivity w/o a coupled ocean-atmosphere model. Transportation & biofuel black & organic carbon Climate sensitivity (K W -1 m 2 ) Standard-2.58 (0.67/-0.26) 2x ( 40%  ) -3.53 ( 0.67/-0.19 ) Standard w/o BC/OC ( 10%  ) -2.37 (0.64/-0.27) Standard + Qflux (5 0%  ) -3.88 (0.97/-0.25) Hadley Center climate model: 4 x fossil fuel Black Carbon: Climate sensitivity (Present day to 1850) = 0.56 K W -1 m 2 Climate sensitivity to doubled CO 2 is ~ 0.91 K W -1 m 2. (Roberts and Jones, 2004, JGR).

10 China: Black Carbon and Summer Monsoon Trends Without black carbonWith black carbon Over the last few decades: increased floods/droughts in the south/north; increased dust storms in the spring; precipitation trends largest observed since 950 AD. We link increased emissions over China (since the late 1970’s) with observed climate. Assume a large proportion of aerosols are absorbing (black carbon). Changes in heating profile affects convective fluxes, stability and spatial redistribution of precipitation. (Menon et al. 2002, Science)

11 Industrial Pollution: Shenyang, China, and India/Nepal Image courtesy:Image Analysis Laboratory, NASA Johnson Space Center Astronaut photograph ISS010-E-13807, acquired January 18, 2005 Hun River Industrial Plumes Snow cover change between urban and rural areas Aerosol optical depth from satellite (MODIS), Dec 2002 Aerosol visible optical depths ~ 0.6 Aerosol single scattering albedo ~ 0.78 Inferred shortwave atmospheric forcing ~ 25 W m -2 (Ramana et al. 2004, GRL)

12 Future Emission Trends: A cause for concern SO 2 emissions in China and Korea for an A1B scenario for 2020 exceed targets. BC emissions in China for 2000 are very large (2.3 Tg/yr) compared to Japan (0.053 Tg/yr) Street et al. 2002, Akimoto 2003, Image source from D. Alles NOx emissions are rising in Asia Also confirmed by recent satellite estimates from Schiamachy that show high NO 2 columns over major cities. Every 1  g m -3 increase in BC causes a 3.5  g m -3 reduction in O 3 -----Surface reactions on soot. (Latha and Badarinath, 2004.) Based on Jan 2004 data over Hyderabad, India. Annual mean radiative forcing over China : Anthropogenic BC: 5.0 W m -2 Anthropogenic O 3 : 0.5 W m -2 25 ppm increase in CO 2 : 0.1 W m -2 (Chung and Seinfeld, 2005)

13 Future Climate (2030-1995) Global annual amount and change in surface amount (ppbv) 1995 Surface Ozone 26.423.43 Change in Surface Ozone

14 Future Climate (2030-1995) Average: 10S to 40N, 58 to 122E Aerosol direct forcing = -0.26 W m -2 Ozone forcing = 0.12 W m -2 198019952030A1B2030A1BA BC0.330.320.270.37 OC-0.17 -0.15-0.17 Sulfate-0.68-0.64-0.87-0.88 Total Ozone -0.52 -0.37 -0.49 -0.37 -0.75 -0.25 -0.68 Aerosol direct forcing = -0.50 W m -2 2x BC/OC = -0.48 W m -2 Ozone forcing = 0.24 W m -2 = 0.25 W m -2 Global

15 Future Climate (2030-1995) Average: 10S to 40N, 58 to 122E Aerosol direct forcing = -0.26 W m -2 Ozone forcing = 0.12 W m -2 Aerosol direct forcing = -0.50 W m -2 2x BC/OC = -0.48 W m -2 Ozone forcing = 0.23 W m -2 = 0.25 W m -2 Global Without carbonaceous aerosols, Ozone forcing = 0.15 W m -2 ===> 20% increase in ozone forcing, globally Over Asia, increase in ozone forcing is ~4% ==> no net benefit from BC/OC

16 Future climate/air quality changes Time PeriodOzone (ppbv) Aerosol Mass (  gm -3 ) Net Rad. Sfc/TOA (Wm -2 ) Ts (K) 2030A1B- 1995 8.284.19-2.5/-3.840.46 2030A1B_A - 1995 8.3513.6-3.25/-3.580.52 Average difference: 10S to 40N, 58 to 122E Health effects from increase in ozone amount and particulate matter??

17 -0.910.23 Calculate linear trend in absorbed solar radiation for 1960 to 2002: Exp A: All forcings (ozone, land-use, snow/ice albedo change, solar, GHG, water vapor, aerosols) Exp B: Similar to Exp A but no anthropogenic aerosols Anthropogenic Aerosol Effects:1960-2002 (Nazarenko and Menon 2005, GRL) Units (W m -2 ); Global means: r.h.s of graph “Global dimming: 1960-1990; Reversal after 1990” Exp A Exp B

18 Surface Temperature Trends: 1960-2002 Units in K; Global means: r.h.s. of graph With anthropogenic aerosols, temperature trends (Exp A) match observed trends. Policy Implications: Without mitigating both GHGs and aerosols, sfc. temp. reduction due to aerosols may no longer mask GHG effects in some regions if only aerosols are reduced, as in Europe & U.S. 0.500.77 0.52Obs.

19 Summary Carbonaceous aerosols from industrial/biofuel sources have important regional climate effects especially over Asia: 1.Ratio of change in surface temperature to radiative forcing increase by 40% if biofuel/transportation black carbon increases by a factor of 2. 2.Black carbon induced heating within the atmospheric column changes spatial pattern of precipitation. Future air quality change: 2000 to 2030 Ozone and aerosol effects over Asia is twice the global average and especially strong over tropical regions such as India. With addition of carbonaceous aerosols, ozone forcing  ~ 20% for 2030, but not much benefit for Asia. Health and air quality issues will becoming increasingly important for Asia! Large unknown in climate change: Emission sources, Interactions and feedbacks of the climate system.

20 Based on CO 2 and temperature response, emission pathways may change : Industrial aerosol emissions are linked to technological change and economic projections, If future emissions change, climate response is going to depend on regional changes and the impact on distant climate. Future Predictions and link to climate Global emissions (Koch et al. 2006, JGR) US CO 2 Emissions (Hansen et al. 2004)

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