1. Improving the climate resilience of Tajikistan’s hydropower sector Rob Wilby Loughborough University Michael Friedhoff SKM Richenda Connel & Ben Rabb Acclimatise Nasridin Minikulov, Anvar Homidov, Muzaffar Shodmanov Tajik Hydromet Nadezhda Leonidova Loiha-Gidroenergo PPCR Workshop on Climate Resilience and the Energy Sector 6-7 March 2012, Barki Tojik, Dushanbe, Tajikistan Kairakkum power station and spillway, downstream view

2. PPCR Workshop on Climate Resilience and the Energy Sector 6-7 March 2012, Barki Tojik, Dushanbe, Tajikistan Overall objectives of PPCR Phase I (A4) Two main objectives: #1. Analyze the climate vulnerability of Tajikistan’s hydropower sector; #2. Recommend ways in which the analysis can inform investment planning, including use of Phase II PPCR resources to support specific adaptation activities leading to a more climate-resilient hydropower sector. Kairakkum reservoir 2012

3. PPCR Workshop on Climate Resilience and the Energy Sector 6-7 March 2012, Barki Tojik, Dushanbe, Tajikistan Orientation – Kairakkum

4. PPCR Workshop on Climate Resilience and the Energy Sector 6-7 March 2012, Barki Tojik, Dushanbe, Tajikistan Orientation – Nurek

5. PPCR Workshop on Climate Resilience and the Energy Sector 6-7 March 2012, Barki Tojik, Dushanbe, Tajikistan Main tasks of PPCR Phase I (A4) Six activities: #1. Assemble and analyze historic hydro-climate trends #2. Produce a synthesis of regional climate scenarios #3. Develop hydrological models to evaluate impacts #4. Review climate alongside other natural hazards #5. Evaluate potential scenarios for hydropower #6. Identify options to build resilience to climate change

6. PPCR Workshop on Climate Resilience and the Energy Sector 6-7 March 2012, Barki Tojik, Dushanbe, Tajikistan Analytical framework Climate change scenarios Hydrological models REGWBMSRM Upstream river regulation Monthly/annual flow factors Monthly/annual evaporation Hazards analysis Reservoir safety Reservoir water balance Energy production model Refurbishment and upgrade scenarios Operating rule scenario Sedimentation data

7. PPCR Workshop on Climate Resilience and the Energy Sector 6-7 March 2012, Barki Tojik, Dushanbe, Tajikistan Activity #1 – Data assembly and trend analysis

8. PPCR Workshop on Climate Resilience and the Energy Sector 6-7 March 2012, Barki Tojik, Dushanbe, Tajikistan Example data sources

9. PPCR Workshop on Climate Resilience and the Energy Sector 6-7 March 2012, Barki Tojik, Dushanbe, Tajikistan Observed trends in annual mean temperature [T], precipitation [P] and discharge [Q] for Kairakkum (top row) and Nurek (lower row) relative to the 1961-1990 mean. The red dashed line for Khujand shows a hindcast of the Tropical Rainfall Measuring Mission (TRMM) area- average precipitation for the upper Syr Darya basin. Local hydro-climatic trends

10. PPCR Workshop on Climate Resilience and the Energy Sector 6-7 March 2012, Barki Tojik, Dushanbe, Tajikistan Snow-cover duration curves (CDCs) for the upper Vakhsh basin in 2010 Snow cover

11. PPCR Workshop on Climate Resilience and the Energy Sector 6-7 March 2012, Barki Tojik, Dushanbe, Tajikistan Activity #2 – Climate change scenarios Temperature and precipitation changes over Asia from the MMD-A1B simulations. Source: Christensen et al. (2007).

12. PPCR Workshop on Climate Resilience and the Energy Sector 6-7 March 2012, Barki Tojik, Dushanbe, Tajikistan Regional climate scenarios

13. PPCR Workshop on Climate Resilience and the Energy Sector 6-7 March 2012, Barki Tojik, Dushanbe, Tajikistan Climate change marker scenarios Marker scenario 2050s2080s ΔTΔPΔTΔP Hot-dry Driest and most rapid warming member(s) +4°C -10% +6°C -15% Central Ensemble mean precipitation and temperature change +3°C +5% +4°C +5% Warm-wet Wettest and least rapid warming member(s) +1.5°C+20%+2°C+30%

14. PPCR Workshop on Climate Resilience and the Energy Sector 6-7 March 2012, Barki Tojik, Dushanbe, Tajikistan Cumulative likelihood distributions of annual PE increases (% change with respect to the 1961-1990 baseline) projected by ensembles of PE estimation method, emission scenario, and GCM output (for the closest grid-points to the Kairakkum reservoir). Evaporation scenarios

15. PPCR Workshop on Climate Resilience and the Energy Sector 6-7 March 2012, Barki Tojik, Dushanbe, Tajikistan Changes in a mean annual temperature and precipitation for Khujand under different greenhouse gas emissions scenarios for the 2080s Climate model uncertainty and downscaling

16. PPCR Workshop on Climate Resilience and the Energy Sector 6-7 March 2012, Barki Tojik, Dushanbe, Tajikistan Observed (black) and downscaled (red) annual mean temperatures at Khujand Observed (black) and downscaled (grey) mean daily temperatures at Lyahsh in 1993 Downscaling applications

17. PPCR Workshop on Climate Resilience and the Energy Sector 6-7 March 2012, Barki Tojik, Dushanbe, Tajikistan Activity #3 – Hydrological modelling

18. PPCR Workshop on Climate Resilience and the Energy Sector 6-7 March 2012, Barki Tojik, Dushanbe, Tajikistan Data for hydrological modelling and sensitivity analysis

19. PPCR Workshop on Climate Resilience and the Energy Sector 6-7 March 2012, Barki Tojik, Dushanbe, Tajikistan Estimated PE for 1961-1990 based the Thornthwaite, Blaney-Criddle and Hamon methods and observed temperatures. PE estimates from the mass balance of the Kairakkum reservoir are also shown Evaporation modelling

20. PPCR Workshop on Climate Resilience and the Energy Sector 6-7 March 2012, Barki Tojik, Dushanbe, Tajikistan Observed (grey line) and REG modeled (black lines) annual discharge at Aqjar for 1955-2010. The plot also shows projected discharge for the 2050s under the three climate change scenarios (colored lines) 1. Regression model

21. PPCR Workshop on Climate Resilience and the Energy Sector 6-7 March 2012, Barki Tojik, Dushanbe, Tajikistan 2. Water balance model Q = (A.P.k) + (G.ΔT) – (A.E) ± S ± D Q is the discharge (km 3 ), A is the basin area (km 2 ), P is the annual precipitation (km), k is a scaling factor, G is the total snow and glacier melt per year ΔT degree temperature change (km 3 /yr/°C), E is the annual evaporation total (km), S is upstream storage change (km 3 ), D is diversions for irrigation or effluent (km 3 ). Syr Darya to Aqjar Vakhsh to Darband

22. PPCR Workshop on Climate Resilience and the Energy Sector 6-7 March 2012, Barki Tojik, Dushanbe, Tajikistan 3. Snowmelt Runoff Model (SRM) Q n+1 = [C Sn · α n (T n + ΔT n ) S n + C R · P n ] A · v (1 – k n-1 ) + [Q n · r n+1 ] Daily mean composite of observed and SRM discharges at Darband 2001-2010

23. PPCR Workshop on Climate Resilience and the Energy Sector 6-7 March 2012, Barki Tojik, Dushanbe, Tajikistan Activity #4 – Natural hazards analysis Ref Date TypeDescription 1929/2/96FLRising level of water on the river of Syr-Darya, destroyed boat bridge 3616/4/96FL Flooded 100 houses, 3 houses are completely destroyed, there are main road washed away 35km, 12 pieces bridges, internal road - 25 km, power line - 3,6 km, coast-protecting structure - 25 km, water collector network - 25 km, water-supply canal - 5km, ?????????? 23 irrigation well and transformer substation, carried away 15 watermill, damaged planted area more than 100 ha, orchard and vineyards about 100 ha, vegetables - 12 ha, foods - 12ha. 9326/2/97FL 953/3/97WI 11225/4/97PR 11911/5/97PRDestroyed 4 km of road 13026/5/97FL Washed away 200 hectares of crops, 52 apartment buildings, a breakthrough 8 km channel at 7 locations, 110 tons of haylage were flooded 13126/5/97PR 13811/6/97PR 15619/7/97LSBridge destroyed near the sanatorium Zumrad-2 15919/7/97PRDestroyed the bridge, the road 500m, the protective structures along rivers, power lines 400m 19227/2/98PRWashed away dam, flooded farmland 19628/2/98WIHas damage to households and private individual Source: Information Management and Analytical Center (IMAC) of Tajikistan. Recorded events near Kairakkum 1992-1998.

24. PPCR Workshop on Climate Resilience and the Energy Sector 6-7 March 2012, Barki Tojik, Dushanbe, Tajikistan Occurrence of natural hazards in the IMAC data base 1992-1998 (as percentages of their respective total frequencies). Natural Hazards 1992-1998

25. PPCR Workshop on Climate Resilience and the Energy Sector 6-7 March 2012, Barki Tojik, Dushanbe, Tajikistan Potential for (some) hazard forecasting Locations of mudflows and reported flooding 5 to 11 May 2011 compared with TRMM rainfall

26. PPCR Workshop on Climate Resilience and the Energy Sector 6-7 March 2012, Barki Tojik, Dushanbe, Tajikistan Activity #5 – Hydropower scenarios Kairakkum dam and power station - general arrangement

27. PPCR Workshop on Climate Resilience and the Energy Sector 6-7 March 2012, Barki Tojik, Dushanbe, Tajikistan Changing bathymetry Storage curves generated from bathymetric survey data were obtained for 1965, 1975 and 2009. Additionally the original storage curve for 1957 is available.

28. PPCR Workshop on Climate Resilience and the Energy Sector 6-7 March 2012, Barki Tojik, Dushanbe, Tajikistan Observed and SRM estimates of daily discharge under present and changed climate scenarios (hot-dry, central, and warm wet) for the 2050s. Calibration based on 7 snow cover images Runoff scenarios – Naryn upstream of Toktogul

29. PPCR Workshop on Climate Resilience and the Energy Sector 6-7 March 2012, Barki Tojik, Dushanbe, Tajikistan Observed and SRM estimates of daily discharge under present and changed climate scenarios (hot-dry, central, and warm wet) for the 2050s. Calibration based on 15 snow cover images Runoff scenarios – Naryn upstream of Toktogul

30. PPCR Workshop on Climate Resilience and the Energy Sector 6-7 March 2012, Barki Tojik, Dushanbe, Tajikistan Scenarios Kairakkum on (discharge at Aqjar) Nurek on Vakhsh cascade (discharge at Darband) 2050sΔTΔP SRM* (18%) REG (13%) WBM (23%) SRM** (16%) SRM* (16%) REG (10%) WBM (33%) Hot-dry +4°C -10%+16+20-50+25+34-8-34 Central +3°C +5%+17+21+2+19+28-30 Warm-wet +1.5°C +20%+18+19+55+12+18+4+35 2080sΔTΔPSRMREGWBMSRM*SRM**REGWBM Hot-dry +6 °C -15%+27+30-80+51+55-12-55 Central +4 °C +5%+22+27-5+29+38-4-6 Warm-wet+2 °C+30%+28 +83+20+25+6+51 Summary of runoff scenarios * Parameters in SRM advanced by 15 days per °C of warming; ** Fixed parameters used in SRM (see Annex 1 for further details).

31. PPCR Workshop on Climate Resilience and the Energy Sector 6-7 March 2012, Barki Tojik, Dushanbe, Tajikistan Syr Darya - Average monthly discharge (m 3 /s) at Akjar Regulated inflow regime

32. PPCR Workshop on Climate Resilience and the Energy Sector 6-7 March 2012, Barki Tojik, Dushanbe, Tajikistan Operating rules Average Kairakkum reservoir level (m) at the beginning of each month

33. PPCR Workshop on Climate Resilience and the Energy Sector 6-7 March 2012, Barki Tojik, Dushanbe, Tajikistan Monthly energy production - calibrated Actual and modelled monthly energy production at Kairakkum assuming 88% of rated efficiency

34. PPCR Workshop on Climate Resilience and the Energy Sector 6-7 March 2012, Barki Tojik, Dushanbe, Tajikistan Scenarios of firm energy production

35. PPCR Workshop on Climate Resilience and the Energy Sector 6-7 March 2012, Barki Tojik, Dushanbe, Tajikistan Adaptation options (Kairakkum) a) Operational changes Use 0.85 m of the flood surcharge volume as live storage (assumes flood peaks are attenuated by Toktogul and Andijan) Change operating rules to maximize head and minimize spill b) Structural/physical changes Increase power station capacity to 147 MW by uprating generators and control system c) Combined approach Increase full supply level by 0.5 m and increase power station capacity by 147 MW d) Other measures Heighten the dam Integrated management and coordination of upstream dams Install additional generating unit

36. PPCR Workshop on Climate Resilience and the Energy Sector 6-7 March 2012, Barki Tojik, Dushanbe, Tajikistan Outcome of adaptation options – wetter future Annual energy under the REG-Central (+21% flow) scenario for different strategies

37. PPCR Workshop on Climate Resilience and the Energy Sector 6-7 March 2012, Barki Tojik, Dushanbe, Tajikistan #6 Recommendations for building resilience

38. PPCR Workshop on Climate Resilience and the Energy Sector 6-7 March 2012, Barki Tojik, Dushanbe, Tajikistan 1) Further analytical work and monitoring 1.Strengthen the hydrometric network 2.Lengthen the period for snow cover measurement 3.Use measured spill and turbine discharge data to improve water balance model 4.Digitize and quality-assure remaining paper-based hydrometeorological records 5.Establish robust protocols for flood safety assessment under changing conditions 6.Examine geo-referenced hazards data for climate signals 7.Assess the feasibility of seasonal forecasting for reservoir operation

39. PPCR Workshop on Climate Resilience and the Energy Sector 6-7 March 2012, Barki Tojik, Dushanbe, Tajikistan 2) Training and collaboration 1.Strengthen national capabilities in climate risk assessment through partnership working and exchanges 2.Strengthen data management and record keeping 3.Build collaborative links with international partners in research, engineering and academia 4.Submit PPCR research to international journals for scientific peer review 5.Run technical workshops on climate diagnostics, climate risk assessment, and seasonal forecasting

40. PPCR Workshop on Climate Resilience and the Energy Sector 6-7 March 2012, Barki Tojik, Dushanbe, Tajikistan 3) Investments in hydropower facilities Kairakkum power station options (a) Use some flood surcharge volume as live storage (b) Change operating rules to maximize head and minimize spill (c) Increase power station capacity during planned rehabilitation (d) Combined approach (e) Manage sediment loads Vakhsh cascade options (no data) (a) Construction of the Rogun dam with associated operating rule changes for Nurek (b) Increase Nurek power station capacity (c) Contingency measures for credible warnings of rainfall-triggered landslides