1. Employment and Social Inclusion in a Green Economy: Some Measurements and Analytical Issues UNEP Green Economy Week Dr. Moustapha Kamal Gueye Policy Specialist, Green Jobs (gueye@ilo.org) International Labour Organization

2. Employment and Social Inclusion: Policy and Analytical Questions and Issues

3. Green Economy and Labour Market Dynamics Nearly 200 million unemployed (74 million youth) – 500 million more job seekers over the next decade – 397 million workers are living in extreme poverty Environmental sustainability can be a driver of economic growth, but … Understanding the labour market dynamics is critical: – Transitions will cause shifts in the volume, composition and quality of employment across sectors – Affect the level and distribution of income – Environmental jobs created in the process must be green and decent i.e. green jobs

4. Key Areas of Interventions and Measurement Three intervention areas >>> implications for assessments: 1.Creating more jobs  Providing evidence that greening will lead to net growth in employment 2.Ensuring quality employment  Ensuring that jobs created meet decent work criteria  Addressing issues specific to the informal sector 3.Advancing social inclusion  Social protection policies, occupational changes, skills building and upgrading, retraining of workers

5. Creating More Jobs: Potential Job and Productivity Gains At least half of the global workforce, the equivalent of 1.5 billion people, will be affected by the transition to a greener economy. 8 key sectors are expected to play a central role: agriculture, forestry, fishing, energy, resource-intensive manufacturing, recycling, building and transport. Whereas a greener economy and more sustainable enterprises is creating tens of millions of green jobs: 15-60 million potential additional jobs globally over the next two decades. The resource-intensive development model of the past will lead to rising costs, loss of productivity and disruption of economic activity: productivity levels would lower by 2.4% in 2030 and 7.2% by 2050 in a BAU (ILO Global Economic Linkages model). Source: ILO 2012, “Working towards sustainable development. Opportunities for decent work and social inclusion in a green economy”. http://www.ilo.org/global/publications/ilo-bookstore/order- online/books/WCMS_181836/lang--en/index.htmhttp://www.ilo.org/global/publications/ilo-bookstore/order- online/books/WCMS_181836/lang--en/index.htm

6. 6 Measuring the Quality of Jobs: The Challenge of Decent Work Indicators 4 Elements of decent work: Adequate incomes for basic needs Reasonable level of economic security Freedom, basic rights, opportunities Voice, self-esteem, self- fulfilment, dignity Basic rights at work Social protection Employment + income Social dialogue

7. Inclusiveness: Skills for Green Jobs - Status, Gaps and Opportunities At different levels: enterprise, industry, government (national, regional, local), by universities, training providers, research institutes, NGOs and international donors Inside and outside existing education and training systems and mechanisms Fostering social dialogue Main findings of 21 country study:  Underestimated growth of green sectors  General lack of scientists and engineers  National skill structure does not meet skills demand  Low reputation of sectors - failure to attract trainees  Poor coordination Source: ILO 2011 “Skills for green jobs: A global view” and other products from the EC and ILO joint management agreement “Knowledge sharing on early identification of skill needs” http://www.ilo.org/skills/projects/WCMS_140837/lang--en/index.htm. http://www.ilo.org/skills/projects/WCMS_140837/lang--en/index.htm

8. Green Economy, Structural Change and Implications for Labour Markets Additional jobs will be created. Some employment will be substituted Certain jobs may be eliminated without direct replacement Many existing jobs will be redefined New jobs created will offset those lost But those who will get green jobs are not necessarily those who will have lost their jobs Retraining matters Source: ILO 2011 “Skills for green jobs: A global view” and other products from the EC and ILO joint management agreement “Knowledge sharing on early identification of skill needs” http://www.ilo.org/skills/projects/WCMS_140837/lang--en/index.htm. http://www.ilo.org/skills/projects/WCMS_140837/lang--en/index.htm

9. Assessment Tools and Methods

10. What are green jobs? Current Policy Definition Green jobs are decent jobs in agriculture, manufacturing or services that: Reduce consumption of energy and raw materials Limit green house gas emissions Minimize waste and pollution Protect and restore ecosystems (Source: Green Jobs: Towards decent work in a sustainable, low-carbon world UNEP/ILO/IOE/ITUC, 2008) Jobs are green by products/services or processes Green jobs include all jobs – shades of green Shades of green

11. The environmental sector consists of all economic units that carry out environmental activities. – Environmental protection activities are those activities whose primary purpose is the prevention, reduction and elimination of pollution and other forms of degradation of the environment. – Resource management activities are those activities whose primary purpose is the preservation and maintenance of the stock of natural resources and hence safeguarding against depletion. Statistical Definition: Concept and Domain of the Environmental Sector Source: ICLS 2013 - Guidelines concerning a statistical definition of employment in the environmental sector

12. Employment in (A) production of environmental output (B) environmental processes Two distinct concepts that refer – to different aspects of the ‘greening’ of employment – to different targets for policy-making. Measurement requires different methods Separate statistics should be produced for each component The two components cannot be aggregated - double counting Statistical Definition: Concept and Domain of Employment in the Environmental Sector Source: ICLS 2013 - Guidelines concerning a statistical definition of employment in the environmental sector

13. B - Employment in environmental processes C- Decent Jobs A- Employment in production of environmental outputs D: Jobs in non- environmental sector created thanks to greening Total employment Employment in the Environmental Sector Employment in environmental sector= A  B Employment created thanks to greening = A  B  D Green jobs (Employment in Environmental Sector that is decent)= (A  B)  C A. Employment in production of environmental outputs is defined as employment in the production of environmental goods and services for consumption outside the producing unit. B. Employment in environmental processes is defined as employment in the production of environmental goods and services for consumption within the producing unit.

14. – The term ‘green jobs’ refers to a subset of employment in the environmental sector that meets the requirements of decent work (i.e. adequate wages, safe conditions, workers’ rights, social dialogue and social protection). – The decent work dimension of jobs in the environmental sector may be measured according to relevant indicators selected from the ILO manual on Decent Work Indicators Statistical Definition of “Green jobs” Source: ICLS 2013 - Guidelines concerning a statistical definition of employment in the environmental sector

15. The Practitioners’ Guide

16. 5 steps Identify Green sectors through : (i) Natural resource conservation approach (ii) Process-based approach (iii) Output-based approach Get Input-Output Table from Central Statistical Office (CSO) Get Employment Survey

17. Achieving Decent Jobs and Social Inclusion Assessment of Green Jobs Actual/Potential Social Dialogue Technical advice, Skills development, Entrepreneurship promotion Pilot Projects Green Jobs Strategy and Policy Support to Policy Implementation More and better jobs

18. Thank you International Labour Organisation: http://www.ilo.org/global/lang--en/index.htm http://www.ilo.org/global/lang--en/index.htm Green Jobs Programme of the ILO: www.ilo.org/green-jobs-programme www.ilo.org/green-jobs-programme International Training Centre of the ILO: http://www.itcilo.org/en http://www.itcilo.org/en