1. CASES – Cost Assessment for Sustainable Energy Systems

2. Cost Assessment for Sustainable Energy Systems 2 Outline of the presentation  What is CASES  Context  Objectives  Expected results  Interaction with other projects  The actors  Organisation of work  Description of Work Packages  Description of dissemination activities

3. Cost Assessment for Sustainable Energy Systems 3 Outline of the presentation  What is CASES  Context  Objectives  Expected results  Interaction with other projects  The actors  Organisation of work  Description of Work Packages  Description of dissemination activities

4. Cost Assessment for Sustainable Energy Systems 4 What is CASES CASES is the acronyms of ‘Cost assessment of sustainable energy costs’, which is an European Commission funded Coordination Action. A Coordination Action: aims at promoting and supporting the coordination, cooperation or networking of a range of research and innovation projects or operators for a specific objective, normally to achieve improved integration and coordination of European research for a fixed period of time.

5. Cost Assessment for Sustainable Energy Systems 5 What is CASES Types of co-ordinated collaborative activities  studies, analyses, benchmarking exercises;  exchanges and dissemination of information and good practice  organisation of conferences, seminars, meetings;  setting up of common information systems, setting up of expert groups;  definition, organisation and management of joint or common initiatives;  joint memoranda of understanding;  pre-standardisation and standardisation activities in specific fields;  establishment of roadmaps for research in specific topics.

6. Cost Assessment for Sustainable Energy Systems 6 Outline of the presentation  What is CASES  Context  Objectives  Expected results  Interaction with other projects  The actors  Organisation of work  Description of Work Packages  Description of dissemination activities

7. Cost Assessment for Sustainable Energy Systems 7 Context  While effort has been devoted in recent years to the estimation of the external costs of energy, more attention is now being paid to the examination of both the private and external costs in one framework.  Energy policy making is concerned with both the supply side and the demand side of energy provision.  The geographical dimension is also important since environmental damage from energy production crosses national borders.  Costs are dynamic: the private costs and the external costs are changing with time, as technologies develop, knowledge about impacts of energy use on the environment increases and individual preferences for certain environmental and other values change.  The least well and least systematically covered area of external cost is the one related to energy security.

8. Cost Assessment for Sustainable Energy Systems 8 Outline of the presentation  What is CASES  Context  Objectives –General objective –Detailed objectives  Expected results  Interaction with other projects  The actors  Organisation of work  Description of Work Packages  Description of dissemination activities

9. Cost Assessment for Sustainable Energy Systems 9 Objectives General Objective CASES aims to evaluate policy options for improving the efficiency of energy use, underpinning this evaluation with a consistent and comprehensive picture of the full cost of energy, and to make this crucial knowledge available to all stakeholders.

10. Cost Assessment for Sustainable Energy Systems 10 Objectives Detailed Objectives 1.To compile estimates of full costs of the use of different energy sources in EU and selected other countries under agreed energy scenarios to 2030. 2.To use resulting datasets to undertake comparative cost assessments of introducing alternative policy options over the time period. 3.To disseminate research findings to energy producers and users and to the policy makers.

11. Cost Assessment for Sustainable Energy Systems 11 Outline of the presentation  What is CASES  Context  Objectives  Expected results –Objective one –Objective two –Objective three  Interaction with other projects  The actors  Organisation of work  Description of Work Packages  Description of dissemination activities

12. Cost Assessment for Sustainable Energy Systems 12 Expected results Objective One will produce:  Best predictions about the evolution of the private costs of major technologies for generating energy from different sources over the next 25 years.  Best estimates of the major environmental external costs of different types of energy in different countries and how will these change in the next 25 years.  Best estimates of the major energy security-related external costs of different types of energy in different countries and of their changes in the next 25 years.  Best estimates of the likely prices of major sources of energy over the next 25 years.  Determination of the greatest uncertainties and of the most relevant research directions for the future.

13. Cost Assessment for Sustainable Energy Systems 13 Expected results Objective Two will produce comparative assessments of :  the investment and operational costs of different energy options taking account of only private costs and taking account of private plus external costs. This assessment is dynamic and will provide the implications of different levels of internalisation on the investment decisions and on key social indicators.  the impacts of the use of different methods of decision-making on the selection of projects - e.g. cost-benefit analysis with ‘externality adders’ versus multi-criteria decision analysis tools.  the implications of different taxes/charges on energy and/or on emissions on (a) the degree of internalisation and (b) the comparative cost comparisons, now and over time.

14. Cost Assessment for Sustainable Energy Systems 14 Expected results Objective Three will produce:  An interactive web site for the dissemination of project related information (partnership, activities and results, reports and deliverables, useful policy documentation, etc).  An electronic mailing list to ensure prompt, updated and easy communication on project news.  Two stakeholders workshops and a final conference organised to present main results of the project.

15. Cost Assessment for Sustainable Energy Systems 15 Outline of the presentation  What is CASES  Context  Objectives  Expected results  Interaction with other projects  The actors  Organisation of work  Description of Work Packages  Description of dissemination activities

16. Cost Assessment for Sustainable Energy Systems 16 Interaction with other projects  This Coordinated Action builds on the formidable amount of research produced by several projects, focused to measure the full costs of the use of different energy sources such as fossil fuels, nuclear energy and renewable energy sources.  CASES will interact with other projects to assess: energy scenarios, external costs and private costs.

17. Cost Assessment for Sustainable Energy Systems 17 Interaction with other projects Former and current projects related to CASES:  Projects focused on External Costs of Energy: –ExternE, NewExt and ExternE-Pol, –DIEM, –ECOSIT, –INDES, –MAXIMA  Project focused on both the private and external costs: –NEEDS  Projects focused on energy scenarios: –Primes, –Poles, –NEEDS.  Projects producing national energy models for non EC countries: –Markal (India), –AIM (India), –IPAC (China).

18. Cost Assessment for Sustainable Energy Systems 18 Outline of the presentation  What is CASES  Context  Objectives  Expected results  Interaction with other projects  The actors –Partners from pre-existing North European member States –Partners from pre-existing Mediterranean member States –Partners from new member States –Partners from associated candidate Countries –Partners from associated non candidate Countries –Partners from INCO DEV Countries  Organisation of work  Description of Work Packages  Description of dissemination activities

19. Cost Assessment for Sustainable Energy Systems 19 Partners  The Consortium of the CASES’ Co-ordination Action is composed by twenty-six partners established in twenty States.  Most of the institutions are established for research activities (11) and for higher education (9). The other participants are not qualified in one particular activity but they provide a scientific expertise and carry out complementary activities necessary to achieve the objectives of this Co-ordination Action.

20. Cost Assessment for Sustainable Energy Systems 20 Partner University of Bath (UBATH) University of Stuttgart (USTUTT/IER) University of Flensburg (UFLENS) Flemish Institute for Technological Research (VITO) Centre for European Policy Studies (CEPS) Risoe National Laboratory (RISOE) Stockholm Environment Institute (SEI) Energy Research Centre of the Netherlands (ECN) Vrije Universiteit Amsterdam-Institute for Environmental Studies (VU/IVM) Wageningen Universiteit (WU) Partners from pre-existing North European member States

21. Cost Assessment for Sustainable Energy Systems 21 Partner Observatoire Méditerranéen de l'Energie (OME) Partners from pre-existing Mediterranean member States Fondazione Eni Enrico Mattei (FEEM) Istituto di Studi per l’Integrazione dei Sistemi (ISIS) Centro de Investigaciones Energéticas, Medioambientales y Tecnológicas (CIEMAT) National Technical University of Athens (NTUA)

22. Cost Assessment for Sustainable Energy Systems 22 Partners Partners from new member States Lithuanian Energy Institute (LEI) University of Warsaw - Warsaw Ecological Economic Center (UWARS) Univerzita Karlova v Praze - Charles University Enviroment Center (CUEC) Partners from associated candidate Countries Energy Agency of Plovdiv (EAP) Turkiye Bilimsel ve Teknik Arastirma Kurumu Marmara Research Center, Institute of Energy (TUBITAK)

23. Cost Assessment for Sustainable Energy Systems 23 Partners Partners from associated non candidate Countries ECON Analysis AS (ECON), Norway SWECO Grøner as (SWECO), Norway Paul Scherrer Institut (PSI), Switzerland Energy Research Institute (ERI), China Fundação COPPETEC (COPPETEC), Brasil Indian Institute of Management Ahmedabad (IIMA), India Partners from Developing Countries

24. Cost Assessment for Sustainable Energy Systems 24 Outline of the presentation  What is CASES  Context  Objectives  Expected results  Interaction with other projects  The actors  Organisation of work  Description of Work Packages  Description of dissemination activities

25. Cost Assessment for Sustainable Energy Systems 25 Organisation of work

26. Cost Assessment for Sustainable Energy Systems 26 Organisation of work Main steps of the project structure:  Agree upon the storylines of three electricity scenarios [WP1] (status quo and two options developments): this will produce as output three reference scenarios;  Calculate average external costs per unit of emission, using Ecosense [WP2, WP3, WP5], and private costs [WP4] on the basis of the reference scenarios when a dynamic element is needed;  Refine scenario definition on the basis of computed external costs by considering full costs per each country/technology given by external costs plus private costs, where external costs are given by average cost calculated by Ecosense times the emission determined under energy scenarios [WP2-7]. This second run will include policy variables in order to facilitate policy assessment [WP8-11].  Analyse how the policy proposed in WP8-10 are affected by uncertainty in external costs estimates [WP12].  Draw final conclusions on the final output of the project.

27. Cost Assessment for Sustainable Energy Systems 27 Outline of the presentation  What is CASES  Context  Objectives  Expected results  Interaction with other projects  The actors  Organisation of work  Description of Work Packages  Description of dissemination activities

28. Cost Assessment for Sustainable Energy Systems 28 Description of Work Packages WP1 Electricity Scenarios

29. Cost Assessment for Sustainable Energy Systems 29 WP1 – Electricity scenarios WP1 objective  Provide electricity scenarios up to 2030 for EU-25 countries, Bulgaria, Turkey, Brazil, India and China WP1 partners  OME, France (coordinator)  ECON, Norway  FEEM, Italy  EAP, Bulgaria  TUBITAK, Turkey  COPPETEC, Brazil  IIMA, India  ERI, China

30. Cost Assessment for Sustainable Energy Systems 30 WP 1 – Electricity scenarios TASK 1 Parameters having direct influence on the evolution of electricity demand TASK 3 Electricity scenarios by country and primary fuel for 2010, 2020 and 2030 TASK 2 Energy policy and other drivers for power supply options

31. Cost Assessment for Sustainable Energy Systems 31 WP 1 – Electricity scenarios Parameters having direct influence on the evolution of electricity demand  Economic factors (growth rate, income, etc)  Prices and subsidies (for electricity and competitive final energies)  Structure of electricity demand –Peak load & seasonal variation –Energy intensity  Industry structure  Potential for energy savings and DSM

32. Cost Assessment for Sustainable Energy Systems 32 WP 1 – Electricity scenarios Pro-Gas Competitive gas for environment & security of supply. EU-level dialogue with producers. Infrastructure support Scarcity Geo-Political tensions; High fuel prices Governments intervene policies Balkanization of markets Today’s Uncertainties Volatile fuel prices; divergent environmental commitments; vacillating Governments; industry consolidation Political uncertainty; high oil prices persist Competition Infrastructure investments then global hard landing; Visionary leadership; EU leads liberalization; strong growth w/ volatility Near-term overbuild creates circumstances for re-energizing market liberalization ECON’s European Gas & Power Scenarios Beyond Kyoto Tough Post-Kyoto commitments; Governments intervene; Gas as intermediate fuel; Nuclear revival Tough Post-Kyoto settlement

33. Cost Assessment for Sustainable Energy Systems 33 WP 1 – Electricity scenarios Electricity scenarios by country and primary fuel for 2010, 2020 and 2030  Review and assessment of existing scenarios  Use of in-house models when available

34. Cost Assessment for Sustainable Energy Systems 34 Description of Work Packages WP2 Human Health Related External Costs of Different Energy Sources

35. Cost Assessment for Sustainable Energy Systems 35 WP2 – Human Health Related External Costs WP2 objectives  Collection of life cycle emissions for state-of-the-art conversion technologies  Description of methodology for external costs estimation (human health, materials, crops)  Including methodologies for other areas (eutrophication, acidification, land use change, climate change) into framework and tools  Calculation of marginal costs for state-of-the-art technologies in Germany  Organisation of a joint WP2-7 stakeholder workshop

36. Cost Assessment for Sustainable Energy Systems 36 WP2 – Human Health Related External Costs WP2 partners  USTUTT/IER, University of Stuttgart – Institute of Energy Economics and the Rational Use of Energy (Co-ordination and main work on emissions, methodology, tools)  PSI, Paul Scherrer Institut (nuclear life cycle and methodologies for assessment of exposure of population with radioactive substances)  ISIS, Istituto di Studi per l’Integrazione dei Sistemi (cooperation concerning stakeholder workshop) Involvement in estimating data on emissions of state of the art technologies outside EU25:  Fundação COPPETEC, Brasil  IIMA, Indian Institute of Management Ahmedabad  ERI, Energy Research Institute, China  EAP, Energy Agency of Plovdiv, Bulgaria  TUBITAK, Turkiye Bilinsel ve Teknik Arastirma Kurumu – Marmara Research Center, Institute of Energy

37. Cost Assessment for Sustainable Energy Systems 37 WP2 – Human Health Related External Costs WP2 description of work  Task 2.1: to identify and describe the pressures to the environment stemming from the latest state-of- the-art energy conversion technologies.  Task 2.2: to describe the current state-of-the-art methodology to estimate external costs.  Task 2.3: to incorporate the methodology to cover land use change, acidification and eutrophication, visual intrusion and climate change into the methodology to generate external cost estimates and into the ECOSENSE tool to calculate marginal external costs. Continue…

38. Cost Assessment for Sustainable Energy Systems 38 WP2 – Human Health Related External Costs …  Task 2.4: to demonstrate the application of the methodology, by estimating external costs for the different technologies at specific sites in Germany.  Task 2.5: to organise a joint WPs 2-7 workshop for stakeholders, to discuss the methodology to calculate external and private costs and the results for selected sites.

39. Cost Assessment for Sustainable Energy Systems 39 EcoSense Flowchart Emission inventory Air Quality Modelling Valuation Emissions (NOx, SO2, NH3, NMVOC, primary particles...) according to Source Location Local Model WTM SROM Concentration / Deposition fields Receptor distribution -population - crop yield -building materials Physical impacts Monetary unit values Environmental damage costs Impact Assessment Dose-effect models (e.g. increased mortality, crop losses) Ozone formation, Regional scale primary pollutants and acid species, regional scale primary pollutants, local scale

40. Cost Assessment for Sustainable Energy Systems 40 Description of Work Packages WP3 Non Human Health Related Environmental Costs of Different Energy Sources

41. Cost Assessment for Sustainable Energy Systems 41 WP3 – Non human health related environmental costs WP3 objectives  To update the estimates of non-human health related environmental costs of different energy sources based on life cycle impacts for EU and non-EU countries with specific attention to ‘new impacts’ (acidification, eutrophication and visual intrusion);  To discuss and confirm ranges of estimates of environmental costs with representatives of industry.

42. Cost Assessment for Sustainable Energy Systems 42 WP3 – Non human health related environmental costs WP3 partners  VU-IVM, Institute for Environmental Studies of the Free University, Amsterdam (WP coordinator)  Sweco Grøner, E-Co Tech Ås, Norway  UW, Wageningen University

43. Cost Assessment for Sustainable Energy Systems 43 WP3 – Non human health related environmental costs WP3 Description of work  This WP provides a critical review and updates external cost estimates of energy-related impacts on land use change, acidification, eutrophication, visual intrusion and climate change across Europe and for selected non-EU countries.  Jointly with WP2 and WPs4-7, research findings are presented and discussed in a stakeholder workshop. Results on land use change, acidification, eutrophication, visual intrusion and climate change are shared with the coordinator of WP2 to be included in the ECOSENSE model.

44. Cost Assessment for Sustainable Energy Systems 44 WP3 – Non human health related environmental costs  VU-IVM –reviews and updates monetary estimates of energy- related land use change and climate change impacts; –contributes to the review and update of monetary estimates of impacts on aquatic ecosystems; –prepares a database on studies concerning external cost estimates of land use changes, acidification, eutrophication and climate change. Continue…

45. Cost Assessment for Sustainable Energy Systems 45 WP3 – Non human health related environmental costs …  Sweco Grøner –reviews and updates monetary estimates of acidification impacts on freshwater fish, and impacts of eutrophication on use values and non-use values, and estimates of landscape aesthetic impacts of renewable energy; –provides a state-of-the art review of valuation studies on these topics and a discussion on benefit transfer methods for these values.  UW –studies the impacts of various emissions related to energy systems; –focuses on the impacts of acidifying compounds on terrestrial ecosystems, including agriculture.

46. Cost Assessment for Sustainable Energy Systems 46 Description of Work Packages WP4 Private Costs of Electricity and Heat Generation

47. Cost Assessment for Sustainable Energy Systems 47 WP 4 – Private Costs WP4 objectives Determine the private costs for electricity and heat generation of different technologies for selected countries  Overview of existing heating technologies and electricity generation plants in previous studies.  Updating to the state-of-the-art technologies and extending with technologies under development.  Determination of the levelised lifetime cost of the heat and electricity generation technologies.  Accomplishment of some sensitivity analysis for different –load factors –workers’ salaries and –annual energy production.

48. Cost Assessment for Sustainable Energy Systems 48 WP 4 – Private Costs WP4 partners  USTUTT/IER, University of Stuttgart – Institute of Energy Economics and the Rational Use of Energy (WP coordinator)  VITO, Flemish Institute for Technological Research  COPPETEC, Fundação COPPETEC  IIMA, Indian Institute of Management Ahmedabad  ERI, Energy Research Institute, China  EAP, Energy Agency of Plovdiv, Bulgaria  TUBITAK, Turkiye Bilimsel ve Teknik Arastirma Kurumu - Marmara Research Center, Institute of Energy

49. Cost Assessment for Sustainable Energy Systems 49 WP 4 – Private Costs Electricity generation plants  nuclear power plants (EPR, PBMR)  fossil-fired (oil, hard coal, lignite) power plants  integrated coal gasification combined cycle (IGCC) plants  combined cycle gas-steam power plants  hydropower (run of river, dam) plants  wind mills (onshore and offshore)  solar photovoltaic systems (roof, open space)  combustible renewable power plants CHP plants  coal-, gas-fired CHP plants with a back-pressure turbines  coal-, gas-fired CHP plants with an extraction condensing turbines  internal combustion engines  biomass CHP plants (gasification)  fuel cells (high temperature fuel cells) Heat generation technologies  gas, oil and wood chips combustion boilers  heat exchangers  heat pumps WP4 description of work - overview of technologies (proposed by WP leader)

50. Cost Assessment for Sustainable Energy Systems 50 WP 4 – Private Costs Components of static social cost for electricity generation (From EUSUSTEL project)  global external costs due to –specific emissions –other external life cycle cost  costs of system integration due to –stochastic wind, solar and hydro power supply –spatial distribution, share of total generation  private generation cost –from an overall system oriented point of view  Average Lifetime Levelised Electricity Generation Cost  Solve for the price that makes costs equal to revenue over the lifetime of the project –from an investor‘s point of view additional premium due to risks in liberalised markets (e.g. electricity prices, economics, regulatory and political factors) should be considered

51. Cost Assessment for Sustainable Energy Systems 51 Description of Work Packages WP5 Externalities of Energy Security

52. Cost Assessment for Sustainable Energy Systems 52 WP5 – Externalities of Energy Security WP5 objectives  To derive estimates of externalities related to energy supply insecurities for EU and other selected countries;  To use estimates of externality costs in policy assessment of measures addressing energy security in the EU and other selected countries.

53. Cost Assessment for Sustainable Energy Systems 53 WP5 – Externalities of Energy Security WP5 partners  UBATH, University of Bath (WP coordinator)  ECN, Energy Research Centre of the Netherlands  CEPS, Centre for European Policy Studies

54. Cost Assessment for Sustainable Energy Systems 54 WP5 – Externalities of Energy Security WP5 description of work  University of Bath (WP leader) reviews and updates existing estimates of external costs of energy insecurity for primary fuels; –use published outputs of existing macro-economic and inter- sectoral models to make estimates of the costs of the use of these fuels; –make predictive estimates of aggregated costs up to 2030 for the EU and selected other countries.  Energy Research Centre of the Netherlands (ECN) critically reviews current estimates of values of loss of load (VOLLs) of electricity for EU and other selected countries; –Include costs of recent blackouts in EU and other countries (e.g. Italy, UK, Denmark etc); –Provide basis for deriving country estimates to a time horizon of 2030. Continue…

55. Cost Assessment for Sustainable Energy Systems 55 WP5 – Externalities of Energy Security  Energy Research Centre of the Netherlands (ECN) and Centre for European Policy Studies, Belgium (CEPS) assess the policy options to reduce - and insure against - the costs of energy insecurity –by comparing costs of a number of policy options with the benefits in terms of reduced energy insecurity. –policy options to include:  increased maintenance of strategic stockpiles,  feed-in tariffs and tradable certificates as methods to increase renewable energy sources’ share in the EU energy mix,  taxes on fossil fuels,  requirements of increased capacity in the electricity sector and;  other market-based instruments.  Policy recommendations

56. Cost Assessment for Sustainable Energy Systems 56 Description of Work Packages WP6 National Level Estimates of Energy Costs in EU Countries

57. Cost Assessment for Sustainable Energy Systems 57 WP 6 – National Level Estimates of Energy Costs in EU Countries WP6 objectives  To develop a consistent set of national level full costs estimates for the 25 EU countries for different energy sources.  To develop a comparative full cost assessment and a consistency analysis of the set of national level full costs estimates.

58. Cost Assessment for Sustainable Energy Systems 58 WP 6 – National Level Estimates of Energy Costs in EU Countries WP6 partners  FEEM, Fondazione Eni Enrico Mattei (WP coordinator)  VITO, Flemish Institute for Technological Research  USTUTT/IER, University of Stuttgart - Institute of Energy Economics and the Rational Use of Energy  UWARS, University of Warsaw  LEI, Lithuanian Energy Institute  CIEMAT, Centro de Investigaciones Energéticas, Medioambientales y Tecnológicas  SEI, Stockholm Environment Institute  CUEC, Univerzita Karlova v Praze  NTUA, National Technical University of Athens

59. Cost Assessment for Sustainable Energy Systems 59 WP 6 – National Level Estimates of Energy Costs in EU Countries WP6 Task 6.1: full cost estimation  Analysis and Integration of costs: A data template for private and external estimates is developed and filled for each country and for each energy source. –The marginal costs of different technologies and the total external costs are calculated for the energy sector by technology for each EU-25 country. –Estimates on costs are dynamic as result of the scenarios of energy use for the years 2010, 2020 and 2030.  Full cost calculation: The private and external cost data are harmonised and assembled in a coherent and systematic way to derive the total costs estimations. –The total cost calculation is extended to the EU 25 countries. –Full cost estimates for each EU country and for different energy sources are integrated into a dynamic framework, carefully choosing among different scenarios.

60. Cost Assessment for Sustainable Energy Systems 60 WP 6 – National Level Estimates of Energy Costs in EU Countries WP6 Task 6.2: comparative full cost assessment  A comparative full cost assessment is developed to identify inconsistencies and structural variations in the total costs composition.  The full cost estimates are compared across countries, to pay particular attention to local geographical variations.  Private and external costs are integrated within one dynamic framework.  The most critical parameters that have an influence on the total cost estimates are identified.

61. Cost Assessment for Sustainable Energy Systems 61 WP2 Private costs of energy productionWP3 Human health related external costs WP6 WP5 Costs of energy security Existing literature WP4 Non-human health related external costs New investigations WP1 WP1 Time dimension WP12 WP12 Uncertainty dimension Compare full cost across countries. Compare full cost composition. Complete cost datasets. Fill in data gaps. Calculate full (private + external) cost for different energy sources.

62. Cost Assessment for Sustainable Energy Systems 62 Description of Work Packages WP7 National Level Estimates of Energy Costs in Non EU Countries

63. Cost Assessment for Sustainable Energy Systems 63 WP7 – National Level Estimates of Energy Costs in Non EU Countries WP7 objectives  Develop a methodological framework for the extraction of private and social costs of energy fuel cycles in a set of non EU countries;  Derive new insights into the costs of fuel cycles in EU as compared to the group of non EU countries;  The group on non EU collaboration countries: Brazil, Bulgaria, China, India and Turkey.

64. Cost Assessment for Sustainable Energy Systems 64 WP7 – National Level Estimates of Energy Costs in Non EU Countries WP7 partners  RISOE, Risoe National Laboratory (WP coordinator)  COPPETEC, Fundação COPPETEC, Brasil  IIMA, Indian Institute of Management Ahmedabad  ERI, Energy Research Institute, China  EAP, Energy Agency of Plovdiv  TUBITAK, Turkiye Bilimsel ve Teknik Arastirma Kurumu - Marmara Research Center, Institute of Energy

65. Cost Assessment for Sustainable Energy Systems 65 WP7 – National Level Estimates of Energy Costs in Non EU Countries WP7 description of work Estimates of private and social costs  Twenty–five years’ time frame  Based on available fuel cycle cost assessments for the collaboration countries.  Two fuel cycles in each country  Special focus on social costs of human health impacts from pollution Fuel cycles considered as of yet:  Brazil: Renewable energy options and ethanol for transportation (COPPETEC)  Bulgaria: Fossil fuel based power production and renewable energy (EAP).  China: Coal and bio–mass or other renewable (ERI);  India: Coal and ethanol for transportation (IIMA)  Turkey: Coal and bio–diesel (TUBITAK);

66. Cost Assessment for Sustainable Energy Systems 66 WP7 – National Level Estimates of Energy Costs in Non EU Countries Challenges in harmonizing computations to ExternE standards Differences across developed and developing countries arise in:  Issues related to incomplete markets, inefficiencies and informal sectors  The kinds of externalities that arise  The relative magnitude of impact from similar kinds of externalities  Data availability  Modelling issues  Valuation issues

67. Cost Assessment for Sustainable Energy Systems 67 WP7 – National Level Estimates of Energy Costs in Non EU Countries Challenges in monetarisation of damages in developing countries Final estimate of costs associated with e.g. the use of coal are context specific. Challenges are inherent to:  Data constraints  Modelling issues  Valuation issues

68. Cost Assessment for Sustainable Energy Systems 68 Description of Work Packages WP8 Assessment of Policy Instruments to Internalise Environment-Related External Costs in EU Member States, Excluding Renewables

69. Cost Assessment for Sustainable Energy Systems 69 WP8 – Assessment of policy instruments to internalise environment-related external costs in EU Member States, excluding renewables WP8 objectives  Comparative assessment of investment and operational costs of different energy options taking account of only private costs and taking account of private plus external costs.  Impact of the use of different methods of decision-making on the selection of projects - e.g. cost-benefit analysis with ‘externality adders’ versus multi-criteria decision analysis tools.  Implications of different taxes/charges on energy and/or on emissions on (a) the degree of internalisation and (b) the comparative cost comparisons, now and in the future. Continue…

70. Cost Assessment for Sustainable Energy Systems 70 WP8 – Assessment of policy instruments to internalise environment-related external costs in EU Member States, excluding renewables …  Implications of different policies to reduce energy insecurity on (a) the degree to which energy security concerns are internalised and (b) the comparative costs of different energy sources, now and over time.  Comparison of the effectiveness of emissions trading instruments for internalising externalities versus the use of externality based taxes.  Comparison of different instruments to promote renewable energy sources, in terms of the degree to which they internalise the positive externalities associated with renewable energy use.

71. Cost Assessment for Sustainable Energy Systems 71 WP8 – Assessment of policy instruments to internalise environment-related external costs in EU Member States, excluding renewables WP8 partners  VITO, Flemish Institute for Technological Research (WP coordinator)  FEEM, Fondazione ENI Enrico Mattei  NTUA, National Technical University of Athens  ISIS, Istituto di Studi per l’Integrazione dei Sistemi  PSI, Paul Scherrer Institut

72. Cost Assessment for Sustainable Energy Systems 72 WP8 – Assessment of policy instruments to internalise environment-related external costs in EU Member States, excluding renewables WP8 methodology  WPs 8-10 share a common investigation methodology: –First, they look at a taxonomy of policy instruments (taxes, permits, emissions trading system, feed in tariffs, tradable emissions certificates, etc.) currently available and discussed in the energy arena. –Second, they consider how successful the different instruments are in internalising the external costs of energy production and in promoting the use of renewables.  WPs 8-10 will have a dynamic outlook by comparing policies at the current time and in the future, considering the energy use scenarios identified in WP 1 and the uncertainties assessed in WP 12.

73. Cost Assessment for Sustainable Energy Systems 73 WP8 – Assessment of policy instruments to internalise environment-related external costs in EU Member States, excluding renewables WP8 description of work  Task 8.1: Synopsis of all relevant policy instruments (taxes, permits, command and control, voluntary agreements, etc.) for non-renewable energy sources and systems used by EU Member States. Synergies with WP 9 and WP 10 are exploited.  Task 8.2: Analysis of the extent to which different policy instruments succeed to internalise external costs of fossil fuels and nuclear energy with reference to 2010, 2020, 2030 scenarios of energy use provided by WP1. A comparative full cost assessment is undertaken emphasising the comparison of nuclear and fossil fuels. Continue…

74. Cost Assessment for Sustainable Energy Systems 74 WP8 – Assessment of policy instruments to internalise environment-related external costs in EU Member States, excluding renewables …  Task 8.3: Analysis of policy linkages for fossil fuels use reduction and GHG emissions trading regimes.  Task 8.4: Development of suggestions to improve the instruments for reducing negative social and fiscal impacts while increasing their power to achieve an extensive internalisation of the external costs of the use of fossil fuels and nuclear energy; and of a suggestion for an integrated EU policy for the external costs of fossil fuels and nuclear energy. Finally, an analysis of the hidden costs of the implementation of different policy instruments for internalisation of external costs of fossil fuels and nuclear energy is carried out. D.8.1: WP8 Report on the assessment of policy instruments.

75. Cost Assessment for Sustainable Energy Systems 75 WP8 – Assessment of policy instruments to internalise environment-related external costs in EU Member States, excluding renewables Criteria for analysis  1. Efficiency of allocation: how far ? (MC=MB or equal total cost)  2. Cost efficiency: who does the efforts ? (MC a =MC b )  3. Dynamic efficiency: stimulate clean technologies  4. Verifiability: measurement  5. Political practicability

76. Cost Assessment for Sustainable Energy Systems 76 Description of Work Packages WP9 Policy Assessment of Instruments to Internalise Environment Related External Costs in EU Member States, via Promotion of Renewables

77. Cost Assessment for Sustainable Energy Systems 77 Policy Assessment of Instruments to Internalise Environment Related External Costs in EU Member States, via Promotion of Renewables WP9 – Policy Assessment of Instruments to Internalise Environment Related External Costs in EU Member States, via Promotion of Renewables WP9 objectives  Provide overview of instruments used to stimulate the use of renewables  Compare different instruments with respect to degree of internalisation achieved  Analyse social and fiscal implication of different instruments especially on poor and vulnerable groups  Suggest modifications to minimize negative and maximise positive impacts  Analyse hidden costs of implementation  Investigate stakeholder preferences

78. Cost Assessment for Sustainable Energy Systems 78 Policy Assessment of Instruments to Internalize Environment Related External Costs in EU Member States, via Promotion of Renewables WP9 – Policy Assessment of Instruments to Internalize Environment Related External Costs in EU Member States, via Promotion of Renewables WP9 partners  UFLENS, University of Flensburg (WP coordinator)  FEEM, Fondazione ENI Enrico Mattei  NTUA, National Technical University of Athens  RISOE, Risoe National Laboratory

79. Cost Assessment for Sustainable Energy Systems 79 Policy Assessment of Instruments to Internalise Environment Related External Costs in EU Member States, via Promotion of Renewables WP9 – Policy Assessment of Instruments to Internalise Environment Related External Costs in EU Member States, via Promotion of Renewables WP9 tasks  Synopsis of all relevant policy instruments  Analysis of extent of success of internalisation  Analysis of extent of future success 2010, 2020, 2030  Analysis of linkages between Renewable Energy policies and GHG emissions trading  Analysis of social and fiscal implications  Development of suggestions to improve policy measures  Development of a suggestion of an integrated EU policy  Analysis of the hidden costs of implementation

80. Cost Assessment for Sustainable Energy Systems 80 Description of Work Packages WP10 Assessment of Policy Instruments to Internalise Environment-Related External Costs in non-EU Member States

81. Cost Assessment for Sustainable Energy Systems 81 WP10 – Assessment of policy instruments to internalise environment-related external costs in non-EU Member States WP 10 objectives  To assess policy instruments to internalise externalities in non EU Member States, via promotion of renewables, focusing on Turkey, Bulgaria, India, China and Brazil;  To investigate stakeholders preferences for policy instruments to promote renewable energy sources through Stakeholders Workshop 2 (together with WPs 8-11).

82. Cost Assessment for Sustainable Energy Systems 82 WP10 – Assessment of policy instruments to internalise environment-related external costs in non-EU Member States WP 10 partners  UBATH, university of Bath (WP leader)  NTUA, National Technical University of Athens  COPPETEC, Fundação COPPETEC  IIMA, Indian Institute of Management Ahmedabad  ERI, Energy Research Institute  EAP, Energy Agency of Plovdiv  TUBITAK, Turkiye Bilimsel ve Teknik Arastirma Kurumu - Marmara Research Center, Institute of Energy

83. Cost Assessment for Sustainable Energy Systems 83 WP10 – Assessment of policy instruments to internalise environment-related external costs in non-EU Member States WP 10 structure of work  Task 10.1: Synopsis of policy instruments for the promotion of renewables in non-EU Countries (UBATH)  Task 10.2: Comparison of instruments used in non-EU Countries with those used in EU-Countries for the internalisation of externalities in the production of energy (UBATH)  Task 10.3: Analysis of the extent to which different policy instruments succeed in internalising the net external benefits of renewables in year 2010, 2020, 2030 (UBATH). Continue…

84. Cost Assessment for Sustainable Energy Systems 84 WP10 – Assessment of policy instruments to internalise environment-related external costs in non-EU Member States …  Task 10.4: Analysis of the social and fiscal implications of different internalisation instruments, focusing on the impacts on the most vulnerable groups in society and on the fiscal burdens created by some instruments working through positive incentive schemes on the basis of government payments (UBATH - TUBITAK).  Task 10.5: Suggestions to reduce negative social and fiscal impacts of instruments while increasing their power to achieve an extensive internalisation; suggestions for an integrated EU policy for the internalisation of the positive net external benefits of renewables; analysis of the hidden costs of the implementation of different policy instruments for the internalisation of net external benefits of renewables (UBATH).

85. Cost Assessment for Sustainable Energy Systems 85 Description of Work Packages WP11 Methods of Assessment

86. Cost Assessment for Sustainable Energy Systems 86 WP11 – Methods of assessment WP11 objectives  To perform a comparative analysis of policy assessment methods and identify common grounds and linkages;  To provide guidelines for the dynamic implementation of policy assessment methods;  To provide tools and support for implementing methods in WPs 8-10 with the involvement of energy suppliers and other stakeholders;  To estimate implied monetary equivalents for non- monetised impacts.

87. Cost Assessment for Sustainable Energy Systems 87 WP11 – Methods of assessment WP11 partners  NTUA, National Technical University of Athens (WP coordinator)  UBATH, University of Bath  VITO, Flemish Institute for Technological  UFLENS, University of Flensburg

88. Cost Assessment for Sustainable Energy Systems 88 WP11 – Methods of assessment CBA  Stems from neoclassical economics  The market as guided by individual preferences secures optimal allocation  Money is the appropriate vehicle to express these preferences  If stated preferences are missing, use of hypothetical or surrogate markets.  Decision: Aggregation of costs/benefits expressed in monetary terms. MCDA  Stems from social sciences (decision- behavioral analysis)  Humans do not always value environmental goods as consumers within a market  Preferences do not a priori exist in human mind, especially for non familiar or non traded goods.  A discursive, interactive approach might help individuals construct their preferences  Decision: aggregation of weighted performances or outranking of global preferences. Overview of methods

89. Cost Assessment for Sustainable Energy Systems 89 WP11 – Methods of assessment Formulation of policy problems  Clear specification of alternative policy instruments to be assessed –Which –Where –When –How  Identification of evaluation perspectives –Cost/benefit component (CBA) –Criteria (MCDA)  Identification of people concerned.

90. Cost Assessment for Sustainable Energy Systems 90 WP11 – Methods of assessment WP11 description of work Analysis, description and operationalisation of assessment methods  Task 11.1: to review Cost-Benefit Analysis (CBA), Cost Effectiveness Analysis (CEA), Multi-Criteria Decision Analysis (MCDA) techniques/tools and successful applications in energy and environmental policy making.  Task 11.2: to set up guidelines for using CBA, CEA and MCDA in policy assessment, with emphasis on integrating dynamic aspects in multi-criteria assessment. Continue…

91. Cost Assessment for Sustainable Energy Systems 91 WP11 – Methods of assessment …  Task 11.3: to set up tools for implementing assessment methods in an interactive and dynamic way. These tools are developed in a generic form assuming a number of alternative policy instruments evaluated along a number of aspects. The CBA-CEA tool provides rankings of instruments according to external cost estimates and discount rates. The MCDA tool provides rankings of instruments according to the preferential input of stakeholders. In both cases a sensitivity analysis indicates the robustness of the obtained results.  Task 11.4: to extend and improve the methodology for deriving monetary equivalents for non-monetised impacts through individual preferences elicited in MCDA. Continue…

92. Cost Assessment for Sustainable Energy Systems 92 WP11 – Methods of assessment …  Task 11.5: to organise a seminar for WPs 8-10 partners to validate methods and user guidelines.  Task 11.6: to adapt the tools to the specific context and data of WPs 8-10, testing the tools through electronic communication and in partners meetings.  Task 11.7: to participate in stakeholders workshop 2 and to elaborate results providing policy input.

93. Cost Assessment for Sustainable Energy Systems 93 Description of Work Packages WP12 Treatment of Uncertainty in Estimates of External Costs at the National Level

94. Cost Assessment for Sustainable Energy Systems 94 WP12 – Uncertainties Objectives  To evaluate the uncertainties of the costs (both private and external) estimated in this project;  To evaluate the effect of these uncertainties on policy decisions, e.g. choice of energy technologies, choice of emission limits, and the resulting emission levels;  To evaluate the social costs if the wrong policy choices are made because of errors or uncertainties in the estimation of the costs estimated in this project;  To evaluate the benefit of reducing the uncertainties by further research (to help identify the priorities for such research).

95. Cost Assessment for Sustainable Energy Systems 95 WP12 – Uncertainties WP12 partners  ECN, Energy Research Centre of the Netherlands (WP coordinator)  FEEM, Fondazione ENI Enrico Mattei

96. Cost Assessment for Sustainable Energy Systems 96 WP12 – Uncertainties Description of work  Task 12.1: to review, update and complete the estimation of uncertainties (ECN, FEEM). This task begins by reviewing the existing uncertainty estimates and updating them as necessary. The extension of the external cost calculations to countries outside the EU entails additional uncertainties that will be evaluated, in particular with regard to monetary valuation. Uncertainties are also estimated for private costs; here both energy prices and abatement costs need to be considered.  Task 12.2: to assess the effect of the uncertainties on different levels of internalisation (ECN, FEEM). Tradable permits that are given away free make the polluters reduce their emissions to the social optimum, but without paying anything for the damage caused by the residual emissions. By contrast, pollution taxes and tradable permits that are auctioned by the government make the polluter pay not only the abatement cost to reach the optimum but also the residual damage; the difference in cost to the polluter is large. The monetary transfers and the effects on the economy are therefore much larger in the latter case than in the former, and so are the consequences of errors in the estimation of the external costs. Continue …

97. Cost Assessment for Sustainable Energy Systems 97 WP12 – Uncertainties …  Task 12.3: to evaluate effect of uncertainties on energy choices (ECN, FEEM). Errors in the estimation of the external costs could lead to inappropriate energy choices, for example too low a level of renewable energy sources. Since the evaluation of energy choices is a difficult and complex undertaking, we will attempt to provide at least some initial estimates.  Task 12.4: to evaluate benefit of reducing the uncertainties by further research (ECN, FEEM). Previous research has evaluated how much the social cost of air pollution abatement is increased beyond the optimum if an error is made in the estimation of the damage cost or the abatement cost curve. This social cost penalty can be reduced by further research aimed at reducing the uncertainties of the respective cost estimates. By examining the relation between a measure of the uncertainty (e.g. geometric standard deviation) and the social cost penalty, the value of such research will be quantified. To help identify the priorities the various sources of uncertainties are ranked in terms of their contribution to the total.

98. Cost Assessment for Sustainable Energy Systems 98 Description of Work Packages WP13 Management and Coordination

99. Cost Assessment for Sustainable Energy Systems 99 WP13 – Management and Coordination Objectives  To ensure the efficient co-ordination and management of the project, both in terms of scientific co-ordination and administrative management;  To review and assess project results and progress towards the objectives;  To carry out full communication and dissemination on the project activities and findings.

100. Cost Assessment for Sustainable Energy Systems 100 WP13 – Management and Coordination WP13 partners  FEEM, Fondazione ENI Enrico Mattei (project coordinator)  UBATH, University of Bath (deputy coordinator)

101. Cost Assessment for Sustainable Energy Systems 101 WP13 – Management and Coordination Description of work Task 13.1: Project management and coordination activities  overall legal, contractual and administrative management; maintenance of the Consortium Agreement; management of the financial flows between the Commission and the consortium; co-ordination of knowledge management issues; overall co-ordination of the technical activities of the project (FEEM and UBATH);  project reporting: –12months and 30months Activity and Management Reports –24months Summary Activity Report (ALL PARTNERS). Continue…

102. Cost Assessment for Sustainable Energy Systems 102 WP13 – Management and Coordination … Task 13.2: Project review and assessment  monitoring of project implementation, review and assessment of project results and progress towards the objectives (ALL PARTNERS).  organisation of project meetings: –Kick-off Meeting (month 2, FEEM); –Mid-term Project Meeting (month 14, FEEM); –3 Project Steering Committee Meetings (month 18, IER, month 25, VITO and month 29, ISIS) Continue…

103. Cost Assessment for Sustainable Energy Systems 103 WP13 – Management and Coordination … Task 13.2: Project communication and dissemination activities  development and update of a Plan for using and disseminating knowledge (month 6, ALL);  development and update of a Project’s communication action plan (month 6, ALL);  establishment and maintenance of a dedicated web site, production of scientific contents, publication of project findings and reports, linking with partner web sites, etc (FEEM and ALL).  establishment of links with other EU and international initiatives (in particular, with the NEEDS consortium through active participation to the NEEDS Fora) (ISIS and ALL).  publication of working papers, a book (FEEM), articles in peer- reviewed scientific journals, and project presentations at international conferences (ALL).

104. Cost Assessment for Sustainable Energy Systems 104 Outline of the presentation  What is CASES  Context  Objectives  Expected results  Interaction with other projects  The actors  Organisation of work  Description of Work Packages  Description of dissemination activities

105. Cost Assessment for Sustainable Energy Systems 105 Description of dissemination activities  Dissemination of research outputs is a key objective to maximize the impact of the project activities.  The dissemination strategy will be implemented through a range of means to reach the highest number of end-users.  Target: EU/international research community, policy sphere, business, public at large.

106. Cost Assessment for Sustainable Energy Systems 106 Description of dissemination activities Dissemination means  Interactive web site  Electronic Mailing List  Electronic Newsletter  Project events: 2 Stakeholders Workshops and the Final Conference  Other conferences and workshops, seminars  Publications

107. Cost Assessment for Sustainable Energy Systems 107 Description of dissemination activities Interactive website Intranet service  To ensure intra-partnership communication on project related issues External dissemination  Project-related information (partners details, project activities and results, deliverables, workshops,…)  Useful links, policy docs, list of stakeholders  Forum  Subscribe Electronic Newsletter and Mailing list

108. Cost Assessment for Sustainable Energy Systems 108 Description of dissemination activities Electronic mailing list  Prompt, up-to-date and simple communication on project news  Target: project partners, organization outside the consortium expressing interest in the initiative (business, policy, public…) Electronic news letter  6-month update on the progress of the project, with direct links to project outputs posted on the web  Target: academy, policy-makers, business, public at large

109. Cost Assessment for Sustainable Energy Systems 109 Description of dissemination activities Project events  Stakeholders Workshops At least 2 Workshops are organised in order to confront preliminary results of the network with academic excellence and key stakeholders and end-users outside the network.  Final Conference At the end of the project a Final Conference (month 29, ISIS) is organised to present the results of the network to the academic, policy and business communities and civil society organisations.

110. Cost Assessment for Sustainable Energy Systems 110 Description of dissemination activities Other events  Conferences and workshops The partners will participate to other scientific and policy meetings (national and international workshops and conferences) in order to present the project and its preliminary and final results, both during and after the end of the project.

111. Cost Assessment for Sustainable Energy Systems 111 Description of dissemination activities Publications  FEEM Working Paper series (Economic Research Institutes Paper Series of SSRN, RePEc, Econlit)  Peer-reviewed scientific journals  Book

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