1. TNS Media Intelligence/CMAG Election 2006 Evan Tracey, TNS Media Intelligence 2006TVB Forecast Conference

2. ©2005 TNS - Confidential Located in Arlington, VA Providing political research since 1997 Track and analyze political public affairs and issue-advocacy advertising Experienced political researchers assemble the most reliable comprehensive research and reporting Help clients better manage their media strategy, media buys, public relations and communication efforts National trade associations, foundations, Fortune 100 companies, national media organizations, academia and hundreds of national, statewide and local political campaigns rely on CMAG data TNS Media Intelligence/CMAG www.tnsmi-cmag.comwww.tnsmi-cmag.com  1-866-559-CMAG Info@tnsmi-cmag.com

3. ©2005 TNS - Confidential Powerful Media Intelligence Innovative Technology, Experienced Professionals Data collection is powered by the most innovative technologies to ensure: Most accurate capture of activity Fastest processing of information Supported by political professionals who specialize in political classifications, coding and market factors

4. Elections 2006 The Landscape Reaching the Voters 2006 Forecast Presentation title - 00/00-00 - Page

5. ©2005 TNS - Confidential The Business of Politics 2004 Overview Impact of new laws on increase funds & spending As Fundraising increased so did the overall share of Ad Spending TV expenditures exceeded $1.7 billion in 2004 More campaigns using TV advertising The “permanent campaign” Culture of Advocacy –527s/ Issue groups –Corporate interests (telecom, energy, healthcare) –Industry associations (PhRMA, EEI, AHIP, USTA, NCTA) Presentation title - 00/00-00 - Page “The Democrats' project is being considered a new benchmark in the trend toward ‘permanent campaigns,’ which specialists said is transforming the political culture.” The Boston Globe

6. ©2005 TNS - Confidential Democratic National Committee $102,629,936 MoveOn.org $21,946,958 AFL-CIO $9,391,533 Kerry for President $165,478,678 Media Fund $48,798,388 SEIU $1,257,915 UAW $2,067,448 Stronger America Now National Air Traffic Controllers Association American Family Voices Sierra Club AFSCME Compare Decide Vote NRDC Real Economy Group Save Our Env Operation Truth CQE $5,901,350 LCV $3,175,405 NDN $2,536,897 LNC Human Rights Campaign Campaign Money Watch NEA Fund Env Acct Fund Bring Ohio Back AL Dem Party Win Back Respect Log Cabin Rep Brady Voter Ed NARAL Real Voices This Vote Counts Safer Together 2004 ACTF Mothers Opposing Bush John Yarmuth Bush for President $188,013,352 Progress For America $21,572,955 RNC $10,850,764 Swift Boat $14,207,919 CFG $1,737,041 Americans United to Preserve Marriage Let Freedom Ring NRA GOP Florida Softer Voices Save American Medicine Citizens United Move America Forward Americans For Job Security There is A Difference GNORF Americans For Peace Through Strength Breath of Life West Virginia for Life American Patriots Coalition NBHRN Holly Mosher IBEW CPE IVOA Fight Back Campaign Truth & Hope AJDW GADP George Menace CRAP NPB Stop Nader Many Moving Parts of Presidential Advertising $500K – 1 million $100K – 499K $20K – 99K < $10K Updated 11/11/2004

7. ©2005 TNS - Confidential ELECTIONS 2005 2005 Picked Up Where 2004 Ended TNSMI/CMAG Captured Over 425,000 Ad Airings Over $528 Million in Political and Issue Advocacy Television Advertising Over 2 Dozen 2006 Races On The Air In 2005 2005 was Truly a Banner Year for Off-Year Political Advertising

8. ©2005 TNS - Confidential 2006 Elections Reaching the Voters Presentation title - 00/00-00 - Page

9. ©2005 TNS - Confidential Challenges to Political Advertisers Fragmented TV audience increasingly difficult to target  Media clutter Ratings do not always identify key political constituencies Media mix expanding in attempt to bracket consumers  More radio  Specifically “top radio”  Move away from niche radio, i.e. Christian  Move from direct mail to web/e-mail Message clutter  TV ad production costs decreasing Longer campaigns  Earlier Ads  Year-round campaigning (no more off- years) Presentation title - 00/00-00 - Page “In the wake of the 2000 election, each political party, convinced that its opponent was getting ahead, stepped up its investments in technology and information-gathering.” -NY Times

10. ©2005 TNS - Confidential Strength Of Commitment To The Registered Party % EntrenchedAverageShallowConvertible 76.0% Committed24.0% Uncommitted Read: 53.0% of all respondents are entrenched to their main political party What the segments mean Average Committed, but not as strongly, some could convert in the medium term Entrenched Strongly committed, unlikely to convert to another Shallow Uncommitted, should be considered at risk Convertible Highly uncommitted with a significant likelihood of conversion n:2478^ Commitment is high among the voters in this market that are registered to a political party 76% are committed to their party 53% are in the most committed segment (entrenched) and are hence very unlikely to switch parties in the near future Only 3% of the registered voters are at a high risk of switching (convertible) ^Weighted base

11. ©2005 TNS - Confidential Strength Of Commitment To The Different Parties EntrenchedShallowConvertibleAverage % Committed Read: For The Republican Party: 54% of its users are entrenched, 23% are average, 21% are shallow and 3% are convertible Numbers > 0.5 rounded up Commitment to the Republican Party and the Democratic Party is very similar among their registered voters Each party is strong among its users, and both have a similar proportion of committed users % Uncommitted *Caution: small base size ^Weighted base 77% 75% 23% 25%

12. ©2005 TNS - Confidential Market Overview – US Commitment Norms Presentation title - 00/00-00 - Page How does the market compare to Conversion Model™ studies worldwide? Difficult markets to enter Not price sensitive Deserving of advertising to support the brand Easier markets to enter Price sensitive Hard to justify brand-building through advertising

13. ©2005 TNS - Confidential Race to the Finish Line (2004 Election) 84% Of US House and 74% of US Senate Ad Spending in the Last 30 Days 99% Of US House and 97% of US Senate Ad Spending in the Last 60 Days $15.5 million spent by 527’s on Senate and House races $140 million Spent on the Presidential Race

14. ©2005 TNS - Confidential Current “Available Voter”/”Campaign Spending” Relationship Presentation title - 00/00-00 - Page        Available Voters Jan. Election Year Nov. Advertising Spending $$$$ $

15. ©2005 TNS - Confidential Media Habits Finding: Trending Data Cable (Households with digital cable) Democrats 31% Republicans 27% Newspaper Readership (Frequent Readers of Daily Newspapers) Democrats -- 52% (8% NYTimes, 3% WSJ, USA Today 8%) Republicans – 47% (3% NYTimes, 6% WSJ, USA Today 7%) Internet Preferences Democrats -- News, Financial, Entertainment, Shopping, Search, Travel, Music, Local Republicans – News, Financial, Shopping, Search, Travel, Medical, Local 9% visit some type of Blog 8% visit political blogs Radio Preferences Democrats – R&B, Classic Rock, Oldies, Public Radio Republicans – Classic Rock, Oldies, Talk

16. ©2005 TNS - Confidential New Media: More Questions than Answers For Political “Micro-targeting” with Political Ads In 2004 only 9% of Political and Issue Ad Spending was on Media Outside of Broadcast TV ( This is not including spot cable ) The Growing Infatuation with the Web Cable TV Network vs. Spot VOD, DVR, TIVO, On-Demand New Media is Growing and Is Becoming More Portable

17. ©2005 TNS - Confidential 2006 Elections 2006 Forecast Presentation title - 00/00-00 - Page

18. ©2005 TNS - Confidential ELECTION 2006 2006 Forecast Based on the sheer number of open and competitive federal, state, and local races in 2006, as well as increasing contribution limits, TNSMI-CMAG foresees a robust advertising market. Nearly half of the gubernatorial races, 40% of the Senate races, and up to 50-60 U.S. House races are considered “in- play.” Current CMAG projection places year-end spending well over $1 billion, possibly toping 2004 record totals.

19. ©2005 TNS - Confidential 2006 Governors Races Alabama Alaska Arizona Arkansas California Colorado Connecticut Florida Georgia Hawaii Idaho Illinois Iowa Kansas Maine Maryland Massachusetts Michigan Minnesota Nebraska Nevada New Hampshire New Mexico New York Ohio Oklahoma Oregon Pennsylvania Rhode Island South Carolina South Dakota Tennessee Texas Vermont Wisconsin Wyoming

20. ©2005 TNS - Confidential 2006 Governors Races Thirty-six States Will Hold Gubernatorial Elections In 2006 Many States Will Have Competitive Primaries Third-party Spending Will Rival That of The 2004 Presidential Race RGA was a Leading Fundraiser In 2005 Several Key 2008 States Have Governors Races Alabama Alaska Arizona Arkansas California Colorado Connecticut Florida Georgia Hawaii Idaho Illinois Iowa Kansas Maine Maryland Massachusetts Michigan Minnesota Nebraska Nevada New Hampshire New Mexico New York Ohio Oklahoma Oregon Pennsylvania Rhode Island South Carolina South Dakota Tennessee Texas Vermont Wisconsin Wyoming

21. ©2005 TNS - Confidential 2006 Senate Races New Jersey New Mexico New York North Dakota Ohio Pennsylvania Rhode Island Tennessee Texas Utah Vermont Virginia Washington West Virginia Wisconsin Wyoming Arizona California Connecticut Delaware Florida Hawaii Indiana Maine Maryland Massachusetts Michigan Minnesota Mississippi Missouri Montana Nebraska Nevada

22. ©2005 TNS - Confidential 2006 Senate Races 33 Senate seats are up for election in 2006 Currently 10-13 Seats “In-Play” Unsettled Political Climate May Increase the Number of Seats “In-Play” 527’s Will Be Active in Targeted Races Self Funders New Jersey New Mexico New York North Dakota Ohio Pennsylvania Rhode Island Tennessee Texas Utah Vermont Virginia Washington West Virginia Wisconsin Wyoming Arizona California Connecticut Delaware Florida Hawaii Indiana Maine Maryland Massachusetts Michigan Minnesota Mississippi Missouri Montana Nebraska Nevada

23. ©2005 TNS - Confidential Other Factors 2006-2008 Democrats Campaign to Retake Control of the US House Will Be the Most Aggressive Since 1998, Making a Greater Number of Seats “In-play” State Elected Offices Will Continue To See An Increase In Spending and Length of Advertising Campaigns More Ballot Measures State And Federal Issue Advocacy Ad Spending Will Increase 2008 Presidential Campaign Will Be Historical In Its Length And Cost

24. ©2005 TNS - Confidential Perfect Storm Markets Phoenix San Diego Denver Hartford Miami Tampa Atlanta Chicago Cedar Rapids Cincinnati Cleveland Charleston Providence Tri-Cities Philadelphia Louisville Baltimore Minneapolis Manchester (NH) Charlotte Greenville Seattle Burlington VT Oklahoma City

25. ©2005 TNS - Confidential Political and Issue ad Spending 2006 TV : Over $160 million In the 1 st Quarter ($40 Million Behind 2004 at the same point) Almost $100 million in Issue Ad Spending Dominated by State and Federal Campaigns on Telecom, Tort Reform and Healthcare Over $57 million in Ad Spending on Political Ads: Dominated by Early Primary Spending in TX, NY, CA, IL, TN, OH, VT, RI Historically 90% of US Senate Spending and 80% of US House Spending Happens the last 60 Days

26. ©2005 TNS - Confidential 2008 Can’t Wait!