1. Energy Research- too little or too late? Professor Ralph E H Sims Massey University, Palmerston North, New Zealand R.E.Sims@massey.ac.nz Otago University Energy Research Symposium, 4 November, 2009

2. Aims in the next 20 minutes….. To review the growing importance for an energy transition – leading to energy security, sustainable development and climate change mitigation. To review the growing importance for an energy transition – leading to energy security, sustainable development and climate change mitigation. To outline the needs for increased deployment of “clean” energy technologies. To outline the needs for increased deployment of “clean” energy technologies. To consider market drivers, growth prospects, and RDD&D requirements. To consider market drivers, growth prospects, and RDD&D requirements.

3. World primary energy demand in the IEA WEO 2009 Reference Scenario 1980-2030 Current policies will lead to growth of 45% in energy demand by 2030 and a fossil fuel future. Unsustainable!

4. Gt CO 2 -eq Annual greenhouse gas emissions to 2100 Even if can stabilise at 450 ppm there is only a 50% chance of keeping global temperature rise below 2 C. o Towards the end of this century need to reach NEGATIVE emissions>

5. IEA WEO 2008 climate-policy scenarios. Reductions in annual energy-related CO 2 emissions For 450 ppm CO 2 -eq additional deployment of existing and new low-carbon technologies accounts for most savings at US$ 180 /t CO 2 20 25 30 35 40 45 2005201020152020 2025 2030 Gigatonnes Reference Scenario 550 Policy Scenario 450 Policy Scenario CCS Renewables & Biomass Nuclear Energy efficiency © OECD/IEA - 2008

6. World abatement of energy-related CO 2 emissions in IEA WEO 2009 Efficiency measures account for two-thirds of the 3.8 Gt CO2-eq abatement in 2020. Renewables contribute close to one-fifth. 26 28 30 32 34 36 38 40 42 200720152020 20252030 Gt 2010 Efficiency 6557 End-use 5952 Power plants 6 5 Renewables 18 20 Biofuels 1 3 Nuclear 1310 CCS 3 Share of abatement % 20202030 3.8 Gt 13.8 Gt Reference Scenario 450 Scenario

7. Annual power capacity additions needed for the 450 Policy Scenario – from 2012-2030. All new generating capacity built after 2012 has to be “carbon-free” and 15% of existing capacity is retired early. 0204060 Solar and other renewables Wind Biomass and waste Hydropower Nuclear Gas CCS Coal CCS GW 14 CCS coal-fired plants (800 MW each) 17 nuclear plants (1000 MW) 8 CCS gas-fired plants (500 MW) 2 Three Gorges dams 300 CHP plants (40 MW) 16000 turbines (3 MW) © OECD/IEA - 2009 2.2 Mm solar panels, 200 Geothermal 2

8. www.iea.org

9. Primary energy supply by 2050. By 2050, in a < 2 C scenario, biomass becomes the greatest source of primary energy o

10. Capacity and energy from renewables Bioenergy heat and geothermal heat around 800 TWh - not shown.

11. Renewables for Heating and Cooling – the sleeping giant! IEA/OECD 2009 Free download of the 200 page report from www.iea.org 40% of our energy use is to provide heat! Biomass, geothermal and solar provides 15-16% of it.

12. Transport biofuel options

13. World oil production by source in the Reference Scenario Six times the current oil capacity of Saudi Arabia needs to be developed between 2010 & 2030.

14. Recent trends in biofuel production Biodiesel production increased 10 fold. Germany, contributed most of the growth. Now declining after a change of policy. Ethanol production has tripled in 8 years. Bulk of the increase coming from Brazil. United States now the lead producer.

15. Biofuel production projections to 2015 Plant capacity at around 60 – 70 % Plant capacity at around 60 – 70 %

16. Potential for 2nd-generation biofuels

17. Free downloads of the full 124 page report are available on www.iea.org www.iea.org

18. Most biofuel growth after 2020 will be 2 nd -generation. Synthetic biofuels after 2030 needed mainly for aviation, heavy trucks and marine purposes. Biofuels in 2050 – IEA ETP Scenario © OECD/IEA To achieve a 2 C target - assuming electric and/or fuel cell light duty vehicles in place. 0 150 000 million ha arable land required.

19. www.renewableenergyworld.com/rea/news/reinsider/story?id=52328 Sustainable Biofuels Consensus Rockefeller Foundation Centre, Bellagio.

20. Cities, Towns and Renewable Energy YIMFY Yes In My Front Yard!

21. Growing carbon dioxide emissions from energy use in cities CO 2 emissions in cities grow by 1.8% per year between 2006 and 2030 (versus 1.6% globally). The share of CO 2 from cities rise from 71% to 76%.

22. Local governments have the power to influence the energy choices of their citizens. Local governments have the power to influence the energy choices of their citizens. Many mega-cities and small towns have already encouraged energy efficiency measures. Many mega-cities and small towns have already encouraged energy efficiency measures. Many combinations of policies have also been employed to stimulate local renewable energy development- including local governance by LEAPS: Many combinations of policies have also been employed to stimulate local renewable energy development- including local governance by LEAPS:  L eading by setting targets and actions;  E nabling of private investment, guidance, education, RD&D;  A uthority and regulations through planning, codes;  P rovision of incentives, resources and grant funding; and  S elf-governance and demonstration.

23. Regardless of a community’s size or location, enhanced deployment of renewable energy projects can result. Regardless of a community’s size or location, enhanced deployment of renewable energy projects can result. The goals of this report are to inspire city stakeholders by showing how renewable energy systems can: The goals of this report are to inspire city stakeholders by showing how renewable energy systems can:  benefit citizens and businesses;  assist national governments to better appreciate the role that local municipalities might play in meeting national and international objectives; and  help accelerate the necessary transition to a sustainable energy future.

24. Have significant power to reduce emissions:  by regulating land and buildings;  maintaining infrastructures (water, waste, roads); and  investing in public transport. Possess assets that they can use for self- governance and demonstration:  their own buildings (offices, schools);  land and reserves for biomass, wind, solar etc;  fleet vehicles and public transport;  waste treatment facilities; and  financial assets and procurement power. Potential of local authorities to reduce GHG emissions

25. Conventional power Conventional power supply system

26. Medium- and small-scale distributed generation within the city=“smart grids”

27. Tokyo, Japan (12.1 million population) Tokyo, Japan (12.1 million population) Cape Town, South Africa Cape Town, South Africa Nagpur, India Nagpur, India Adelaide, Australia Adelaide, Australia Merton, London, UK Merton, London, UK Freiburg, Germany Freiburg, Germany Växjo, Sweden Växjo, Sweden Palmerston North, NZ Palmerston North, NZ Masdar, United Arab Emirates Masdar, United Arab Emirates El Hierro, Spain El Hierro, Spain Samsǿ, Denmark Samsǿ, Denmark Güssing, Austria Güssing, Austria Greensburg, USA (1 500 population) Greensburg, USA (1 500 population) Case study city examples:

28. 1.16 million inhabitants, aiming for 20% renewable electricity by 2014 (33% by 2020) Case study: Adelaide, South Australia

29. Develop renewable energy in parallel with energy efficiency. Develop renewable energy in parallel with energy efficiency. Learn from examples but fit them to local circumstances. Learn from examples but fit them to local circumstances. First plan, then take action. First plan, then take action. Develop policies that support transition to decentralised energy systems. Develop policies that support transition to decentralised energy systems. Gain community support -essential for effectiveness of policies. Gain community support -essential for effectiveness of policies. Policy recommendations for local authorities:

32. Roadmaps – Electric and Plug-in Vehicles 4% of CO 2 reduction potential in ETP scenario

33. Roadmaps –Hydrogen Fuel Cell Vehicle 4% of CO 2 reduction potential in ETP scenario

34. Roadmaps- 2 nd -Generation Biofuels 5% of CO 2 reduction potential in ETP scenario

35. Roadmaps – Efficiency in Transport 14% of CO 2 reduction potential in ETP scenario

36. Public RD&D budgets for energy - IEA member countries 1974-2007.

37. Public RD&D budgets for Renewable energy - IEA member countries 1974-2007.

38. In summary In summary  Climate change is real and adaptation is inevitable.  All national, provincial and municipal governments need to participate in the mitigation solutions to keep global mean temperature rise below 2 C.  RD&D investment in sustainable energy is inadequate to cope with the necessary transition……………  We are running out of time… o

39. Deploying Renewables Global renewable energy markets and policies programme Download at www.iea.org/G8/index.asp www.iea.org/G8/index.asp

40. Assessment of policy experience across OECD and the BRICS countries (Brazil, Russia, India, China, S. Africa) Assessment of policy experience across OECD and the BRICS countries (Brazil, Russia, India, China, S. Africa) Effectiveness of RE support policies assessed through market deployment and RD&D investment. Effectiveness of RE support policies assessed through market deployment and RD&D investment. Distillation of the best policy practices and of main challenges encountered. Distillation of the best policy practices and of main challenges encountered. Learning experience gained from success stories - but also from failures. Learning experience gained from success stories - but also from failures. Several key principles recommended. Several key principles recommended. Deploying Renewables

41. Fostering the transition of Renewables towards mass market integration Market Deployment Time Development Niche markets Niche markets Mass market Mass market Low cost-gap technologies (e.g. wind onshore) High cost-gap technologies (e.g. PV) Mature technologies (e.g. hydro) Prototype & demonstration stage technologies (e.g. 2 nd generation biofuels)

42. Fostering the transition of Renewables towards mass market integration Market Deployment Time DevelopmentNiche marketsMass market Imposed market risk, guaranteed but declining minimum return Price-based: FIP Quantity-based: TGC with technology banding Stability, low-risk incentives Price-based: FIT, FIP Quantity-based: Tenders Continuity, RD&D, create market attractiveness Capital cost incentives: investment tax credits, rebates, loan guarantees etc. Stimulate market pull Voluntary (green) demand Low cost-gap technologies (e.g. wind onshore) High cost-gap technologies (e.g. PV) Mature technologies (e.g. hydro) Prototype & demonstration stage technologies (e.g. 2 nd generation biofuels) Technology-neutral competition TGC Carbon trading (EU ETS) Note: The positions of the various technologies and incentive schemes along the S-curve are an indicative example at a given moment. The actual optimal mix and timing of policy incentives will depend on specific national circumstances. The level of competitiveness will also change in function of the evolving prices of competing technologies.