1. www.esf.org Post-communist Capitalisms in Crisis: Scenarios for Central & Eastern Europe Forward Look 'Beyond transition' Berlin, 16 February 2011 Vello Pettai, Martin Brusis

2. www.esf.org Overview 1.why scenarios? 2.drivers 3.scope conditions 4.scenarios across fields

3. www.esf.org Why scenarios? working out future research areas in social science requires thinking about how society itself will evolve we can’t predict the future, but we can use foresight methods to construct varieties of that future scenarios help to shake up our mind, imagine a different world, analyze eventualities Forward Look Consensus Conference, Berlin 16-17 February 2011

4. www.esf.org Why scenarios? they are not about predicting, but rather contemplating they are a means to an end and a heuristic device in order to generate ideas about future research agendas the task is to improve the scenarios, but also to take them as they are in order to stimulate thinking Forward Look Consensus Conference, Berlin 16-17 February 2011

5. www.esf.org Drivers drivers = what are the broad, overarching processes or phenomena that will determine or affect other, narrower phenomena? we are focusing on CEE – a single geographic region embedded in a concrete political-economic community (the EU) so there are limits to what CEE itself will affect it is easier to identify drivers Forward Look Consensus Conference, Berlin 16-17 February 2011

6. www.esf.org Forward Look Consensus Conference, Berlin 16-17 February 20116 ?? The drivers & their permutations

7. www.esf.org Other drivers ‘European neighborhood’: RU, UKR, BLR; stability – instability energy: supply & demand, political dimensions, global struggles EU enlargement: Turkey, integration or confrontation  these could also affect CEE, but they are not included in this exercise Forward Look Consensus Conference, Berlin 16-17 February 2011

8. www.esf.org Scope conditions irrespective of the ‘drivers’ we choose for building scenarios, there are specific aspects of CEE that constitute ‘scope conditions’ or background parameters for possible future developments 8Forward Look Consensus Conference, Berlin 16-17 February 2011

9. www.esf.org Scope conditions homogeneous consolidated political institutions weak civil society & low levels of trust ‘dependent developmnt’ heterogeneous varying voter-party dealignment diverse ethnic situations varieties of capitalism Forward Look Consensus Conference, Berlin 16-17 February 2011

10. www.esf.org Drivers and effects: economy Economic development European Union EMUPolitical economy CEE capitalisms 1Economic recovery Working community institutions Control + transfers Prosperity- integration nexus B3 converge to V4 2Low growthNW-SE opposition Imposed control Segmented dvlpmnt Persisting VoC, no spillover 3StagnationBlockadeEroding standards DecouplingPersisting VoC 4RecessionDisintegration Industrial degrading V4 converge to B3 Forward Look Consensus Conference, Berlin 16-17 February 201110

11. www.esf.org Drivers and effects: politics Economic development European Union EMUParty constel- lations CEE in EU 1Economic recovery Working community institutions Control + transfers Mainstream reinforced Cooperation 2Low growthNW-SE opposition Imposed control Mainstream contested Bargaining 3StagnationBlockadeEroding standards Centrist populists emerge Opting-out 4RecessionDisintegration Centrist- radical populists interact Exiting Forward Look Consensus Conference, Berlin 16-17 February 201111

12. www.esf.org Drivers and effects: local gov. Economic dvlpmnt. EMUPolitical economy Party constel- lations Local democracy Local admini- stration Economic recovery Control + transfers Prosperity- integration nexus Main- stream reinforced Multilevel governance Expansion Low growthImposed control Segmented development Main- stream contested InertiaDiver- gence StagnationEroding standards DecouplingCentrist populists emerge InstabilityDown- sizing RecessionDisintegrat ion Industrial degrading Centrist- radical populists interact Centrali- zation Down- sizing Forward Look Consensus Conference, Berlin 16-17 February 201112

13. www.esf.org Drivers and effects: society Economic dvlpmnt EMUPolitical economy Party constel- lations Social processes Economic recovery Control + transfers Prosperity- integration nexus Main- stream reinforced Middle class consolidating, transnational identities Low growthImposed control Segmented development Main- stream contested Persisting inequalities, segmented labor market StagnationEroding standards DecouplingCentrist populists emerge Rising inequalities, middle class eroding RecessionDisintegrati on Industrial degrading Centrist- radical populists interact Deprivation, outmigration Forward Look Consensus Conference, Berlin 16-17 February 201113

14. www.esf.org COMMENTS? QUESTIONS?