1. WISDOM [Weather In-Situ Deployment Optimization Method] Alexander E. MacDonald, NOAA Research DAA for LCI Justyna Nicinska, WISDOM Program Manager LT Richard E. Hester Jr., NOAA/R/ERSL Associate Director Yuanfu Xie, NOAA/R/ESRL/GSD Russell B. Chadwick, NOAA/R/ESRL/GSD 2010 COCOM SMO Conference March 25, 2010 U.S. Department of Commerce

2. 2 Office of Oceanic and Atmospheric Research - WISDOM Program - NOAA Organization, OAR, OMAO, NOAA Corps - WISDOM Concept - Operations 2008 and 2009 - Measuring Data Impact - Future Directions - Collaboration Ideas Outline 2

3. Office of Oceanic and Atmospheric Research - WISDOM Program 3 Department of Commerce National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration Oceanic and Atmospheric Research National Environmental Satellite, Data And Information Service National Ocean Service National Weather Service National Marine Fisheries Service Program Planning and Integration Office of Marine and Aviation Operations Aircraft Operations Center Marine Operations Centers Commissioned Personnel Center NOAA Dive Center ~ 321 officers ~ 1400 personnel ~ $200M/year NOAA Organization

4. Office of Marine and Aviation Operations (OMAO) 4 OMAO, NOAA Corps - History 1807 – Jefferson’s Survey of the Coast, first science agency, to chart “every mile of navigable water” First New York Harbor chart, automated tide gauges, “Red, Right, Return” buoyage system Worked with attached Army & Naval officers Civil War – non-uniformed surveyors in jeopardy of execution 1917 - U.S. Coast and Geodetic Survey World War I and World War II - intelligence gatherers, surveying battlefields and landing sites, navigating troop transports, other technical roles 1965-1970 – ESSA Corps under the Environmental Science Services Administration 1970 NOAA and NOAA Corps – new missions

5. 5 Office of Marine and Aviation Operations (OMAO) 5 Minneapolis (2) AOC Tampa, FL (10) Monterey, CA (1) TWIN OTTER (1) P-3 (3)SHRIKE COMMANDER KING AIR 350ER JET PROP COMMANDER Manassas, VA (1) SHRIKE COMMANDER MISSIONS Charting and Mapping Fisheries Research Hurricane Research Environmental Assessment MISSIONS Charting and Mapping Fisheries Research Hurricane Research Environmental Assessment OMAO, NOAA Corps - 13 Aircraft

6. 6 Office of Marine and Aviation Operations (OMAO) 6 PASCAGOULA (3) SAN DIEGO (1) MOC-ATLANTIC (1) CHARLESTON (2) DELAWARE II GORDON GUNTER DAVID STARR JORDAN NANCY FOSTER RONALD H. BROWN KODIAK, AK (1) Nautical Charting Fisheries Research Oceanographic Research Coastal Monitoring Ocean Exploration Ocean Climate Monitoring MISSIONS KA’IMIMOANA OSCAR ELTON SETTE HI’IALAKAI RAINIER McARTHUR II FAIRWEATHER HONOLULU (3) THOMAS JEFFERSON PISCES MILLER FREEMAN OMAO, NOAA Corps - 19 Ships,9 Home Ports MOC-PACIFIC (4) Temporary Homeports: OKEANOS EXPLORER HONOLULU, HI HENRY BIGELOW KETCHIKAN, AK (1) WOODS HOLE (1) DYSON

7. 7 Office of Oceanic and Atmospheric Research - WISDOM Program The Hurricane Track Problem 7 WISDOM An ensemble of NWP forecasts for the track of Hurricane Rita WISDOM vision is future 4-day forecasts as good or better than current 3-day forecasts Improving forecasts of the synoptic environment – the “steering flow” has been an important factor for increasing accuracy of track forecasts

8. 8 Office of Oceanic and Atmospheric Research - WISDOM Program Click to edit Master text styles 8 Flood the data poor region with enough balloons to improve forecasts by one day. The WISDOM solution The WISDOM program aims to improve the hurricane track prediction in the 3 to 6 day period before landfall by providing wind and atmospheric data over poorly observed areas of the Atlantic basin.

9. 9 Office of Oceanic and Atmospheric Research - WISDOM Program 9 WISDOM Concept balloon deployment training October 2008, Miami FL Super pressure non-elastic “tetroon” to drift 2-3 days at constant design altitudes (5K ft and 12K ft) Essential 100 g payload components are GPS receiver and RF transmitter Wind is calculated from position data 2008 payload 2009 payload

10. 10 Office of Oceanic and Atmospheric Research - WISDOM Program 10 ETC’s GPS RF Tag: proprietary, software configurable radio technology Data transmitted real time via UHF FLEETSATCOM to ETC’s ground station Then via internet to the MADIS servers at NOAA/ESRL. Operational centers receive real time data via MADIS WISDOM Concept

11. Office of Oceanic and Atmospheric Research - WISDOM Program 11 Lots of Partners - Philosophy of cooperative observers, data sharing, mutual benefits per established practices of national and international met service and WMO Interagency Sponsors NOAA R/ESRL, R/ARL, /NWS DHS S&T Directorate DOD Air Force Weather Agency DOD JCS J63 University Partners Northern Gulf Institute MSU University of Miami Texas A&M Corpus Christi Simeon Fongang Ecole Superieure Polytechnique Universite, Senegal International Meteorological Services Partners Caribbean Institute of Meteorology and Hydrology Bermuda Weather Service Private Sector Partners Near Space Corporation Engenium Technologies Raytheon WISDOM Concept Feds, private sector folks, university employees, grad students

12. 12 Office of Oceanic and Atmospheric Research - WISDOM Program Annual Cycle - R&D, Production, Field Preps 12 FEB – APR: scope the range of efforts for this year, initiate reimbursable funding process MAR: federal government gets a budget? MAY: interagency funds transfers completed MAY: contract let for balloon & payload production, deployment site liaison activities AUG: balloon deployment training SEP-OCT: active field test window (~30 days) NOV-DEC: stand down, data impacts, report out YEAR-ROUND: Program Development, OSSE modeling development, some engineering consults Balloon deployment training August 2009, Waveland MS. Lead by university consortium partner Northern Gulf Institute

13. 13 Office of Oceanic and Atmospheric Research - WISDOM Program Active Test Season Operations 13 Daily watch routine: throughout the period: deployment teams are “on call” 1200Z: designated ESRL forecaster consults latest NWP guidance and ensemble spreads, issues daily “stand by” or “stand down” via email and web posting, automated trajectory forecasts are run 1400Z: ESRL decision team consults forecaster, balloon trajectory forecasts, issues specific balloon deployment instructions, issues courtesy NOTAMS 1600Z: deployment teams confirm receipt and execute (30 days SEP-OCT) 7 day predicted trajectories from GFS (green) & FIM (red) model runs vs actual trajectory (yellow) for balloon W000139 launched from Waveland MS.

14. 14 Office of Oceanic and Atmospheric Research - WISDOM Program Active Test Season Operations 14 Intermittent launch procedure: - assemble 2+ person team at pre-loaded rental van 2 hard suit cases 2 helium tanks Balloons Payloads voice communications w/ NOAA/ESRL - drive to pre-designated deployment site - turn on payloads for sat lock, Tx/Rx tests - inflate balloon per instructions for designated altitude, adjusted for local pressure - conduct Tx/Rx test - attach payload - release balloon - note low drift, tested in 20 mph winds (30 days SEP-OCT) Balloon deployment in MS.

15. 15 Office of Oceanic and Atmospheric Research - WISDOM Program 15 WISDOM, with funding support from the DHS S&T, conducted a successful initial feasibility test during the 2008 hurricane season 10 Prototypes launched from Hawaii in August First Field Test w/ 19 balloons in October Altitudes- 12,000 & 26,000 ft Hurricane Paloma Launch - 57 balloons in November 2008 Proof of Concept Testing First test deployment trajectories as of 10/29/08. Balloons were launched 10/18/08. Big surprise – 10 day lifetimes

16. 16 Office of Oceanic and Atmospheric Research - WISDOM Program 16 2008 Results Balloons successful maintained constant design altitudes Payloads successfully transmitted data to ESRL via DOD satellite Proved successful acquisition of in-situ wind data Determined feasible drifting balloon lifetimes WISDOM balloon trajectories deployed around Hurricane Paloma, as located on Nov 12, 2008.

17. 17 Office of Oceanic and Atmospheric Research - WISDOM Program Click to edit Master text styles 17 Geographic and Altitude Track of WISDOM Balloon W000054, Launched November 7, 2008 as part of Hurricane Paloma campaign 2008 Results A bigger surprise 20-day survivor potential national airspace concerns over Africa, Asia demonstrated need for termination devices

18. 18 Office of Oceanic and Atmospheric Research - WISDOM Program 18 Launched approximately 90 Balloons collected wind and pressure data included flight termination capability Maintained 100 g weight of payload temp and relative humidity in testing mode Courtesy NOTAMs filed 6 operational forecast centers contacted regarding ingest of WISDOM data 2009 Pilot Operational Testing WISDOM 2009 Launch Sites - 10 total With support from DHS S&T, NOAA/NWS and Air Force/AFWA, WISDOM tested a pilot operational cycle, and quantified data impact.

19. 19 Office of Oceanic and Atmospheric Research - WISDOM Program Senegal 19 Bermuda 2009 Results Demonstrated international met services cooperation NGI developed “Balloon Tracker” real-time visualization Median flight 5-7 days, terminated past lat/lon boundary Demonstrated effectiveness of programmable cut-down devices WISDOM has demonstrated capability to target remote areas for in situ observations. The WISDOM Balloon System can provide thousands of data points at low cost (estimated at less than a dollar per data point). Selected launches throughout 2009, colors based on launch location.

20. 20 Office of Oceanic and Atmospheric Research - WISDOM Program Nov 10, 2009 Tropical Storm (formerly hurricane) Ida location and numerous predicted locations; also WISDOM Balloon trajectories from releases originating in Corpus Christi TX. 20 2009 Results Demonstrated proximity to hurricane / tropical storm (Ida) Demonstrated operational forecast centers received real-time vis ESRL MADIS ECMWF UK Met Office NHC Demonstrated feasibility of field operations procedures

21. 21 Office of Oceanic and Atmospheric Research - WISDOM Program 21 Observing System Simulation Experiments (OSSE) – ECMWF 13 month free forecast is used for OSSE “nature run” – Run forecasts w/ and w/out selected observations, measure impact Offline, simulated experiments – Observing system is not yet built – “Synthetic obs” used to test impact on specific simulated hurricane cases – Data denial experiments, ensembles for robust statistics Online, hind-cast and forecast experiments – forecast impact of WISDOM data, after the fact – expected impact of WISDOM data prior to balloon releases – releases and obs targeted to times & places of highest forecast impact Measuring Data Impact

22. 22 Office of Oceanic and Atmospheric Research - WISDOM Program 300 mb U-wind analysis impact of various observing systems, July-August 2005. Per GSI assimilation system 22 Note in-situ impact at least as significant as satellite data Operational forecast centers ingest only 1-5% of satellite data “traditional” RAOB is among the highest impact Measuring Data Impact

23. Office of Oceanic and Atmospheric Research - WISDOM Program 23 Analysis increment of wind speed from real time WISDOM STMAS analysis. Remnant of TS Ida is in northern MS. Measuring Data Impact

24. 24 Office of Oceanic and Atmospheric Research - WISDOM Program 24 Expand volume to reach threshold 100-200 per storm – Number of release sites available for use – Number of balloons & payloads, inventoried and released – Support staff, administrative and int’l support and partners Technical Improvements – improve pressure, add temp and rel. humidity – additional balloon designs for altitudes 5K and 40K+ – 2 way comms with no ground station Significant OSSE results – statistically significant quantified forecast impacts – observations targeting algorithm Prototype and test Aeroclipper concept by SEP2010 – generic, disposable drop sonde type insertions from aircraft – for continuous readings in the eye over many days – pressure, air temperature, water temperature, wind speed and direction Future Directions

25. Office of Oceanic and Atmospheric Research - WISDOM Program 25 Assistance in accessing release sites, and/or releasing balloons – West Africa region releases are critical for tracking Cape Verde storms and hurricane genesis – Caribbean region releases from Central and South America would be a major benefit for late season hurricanes typical for the region (note Ida example) – European release sites lower priority – Launch Operations are set up for easy equipment transfer and field deployments – Investigate USAID support as met services development capacity building activity Prototype and test low-level balloon for dust storm forecast application – Requires new balloon design and fabrication, HI test range – Design requirements might overlap with those for 5K ft balloon and/or aeroclipper – Requires one-time dedicated funding, order of magnitude ~ $100K ~ On the Horizon – Expansion into Pacific Ocean, Indian Ocean – Expansion into routine ops for U.S. military met services worldwide – Transition to routine met service ops, WISDOM balloons as common as RAOBS Collaboration Ideas

26. Office of Oceanic and Atmospheric Research - WISDOM Program 26 WISDOM [Weather In-Situ Deployment Optimization Method] Points of Contact: http://wisdom.noaa.gov Justyna.Nicinska@noaa.gov 240-723-6895http://wisdom.noaa.gov Justyna.Nicinska@noaa.gov