1. Economic Costs of Critical Infrastructure Failure in El Paso-Juarez Region Border to Border Transportation Conference November 20, 2014 Jeff Shelton, Sharada Vadali, Gabriel Valdez, Shailesh Chandra, Arturo Bujanda Texas A&M Transportation Institute Mike Medina El Paso Metropolitan Planning Organization

2. Contents The Context Extreme Event Modeling Framework Economic Framework Concluding Remarks 2

3. The Context: Cross Border Trade Flows 3 Trade Value (Billions $) : 2013 ($507 Billion) ($280 b imports and $226 b exports)

4. TX Land Ports of Entry Are Vital for Trade and Will Continue to be so.. 4 Name Total Trade Value (Truck) Export Value (Truck) Import Value (Truck) % Export Value %Import Value % Total Trade Value Laredo, TX1175463172119 Detroit, MI995840181316 Buffalo-Niagara, NY62372612910 El Paso, TX5122297108 Port Huron, MI4830181068 Otay Mesa, CA331122375 Champlain Rouses Pt, NY 241012344 Hidalgo, TX 21915353 Santa Teresa, NM 18710233 Pembina, ND 17125423 Top 10 Ports by Trade Value (Billions of US$) ranked by total trade for USA- NAFTA partner trade in 2011. (U.S. DOT, Research and Innovative Technology Administration, Bureau of Transportation Statistics,TransBorder Freight Data, 2012)

5. 5 Aging Infrastructure – Underinvestment or Disinvestment in Critical Links Could be Costly…

6. 6 What did we do? Developed a DTA model of the El Paso/Juarez region Ports-of-entry Traffic signals Accurate geometry Traffic flow models

7. 7 Dynamic Traffic Assignment Modeling Framework to Simulate Traffic Effects of Failures… Port of Entry (POE) and the Bridge of the Americas (BOTA) Simulation Area: LPOE connecting to I-10 interchange.

8. 8 Dynamic Traffic Assignment Modeling – Simulated Area and Infrastructure..

9. 9 Modeling Framework to Simulate Economic Implications... Teasing out Domestic, International Flows

10. 10 Modeling Framework to Simulate Economic Costs to System Users Shippers and Carriers

11. 11 Costs Imposed to Society Can be Large…

12. 12 What does this mean?

13. 13 Average Travel Time - Trucks

14. Preliminary Results and Conclusions  For the term immediate to disruption, the loss is at an accelerated rate of $2.5 million per day for the shippers and carriers. Peak periods have the highest loss.  Longer term costs on a per day basis are lower but will accumulate depending on length of replacement schedules and ability of trucks to shift to alternate POEs besides Zaragoza or Santa Teresa.  Regional spillover costs (indirect and induced) are not considered.  Possibilities include exploring mitigation strategies and looking at important supply chains and trade flows. 14

15. Concluding Remarks (contd.)  Vital for agencies to consider regional resilience as part of preparedness and,  Continuity planning for businesses along corridors. 15

16. Thank You Questions? 16