1. XV. New Classical Macroeconomics

2. XV.1 Introduction Before WWI: “classical” macroeconomics, market clearing, full employment and full employment product, vertical AS Great Depression and birth of Keynesian economics, horizontal AS After WWII: neoclassical synthesis, in the long run, the economy tends towards full employment and to vertical AS

3. Monetarist’s contribution Since 1950: continuous criticism of Keynesian propositions Alternative policy proposals Natural rate of unemployment and expectations augment Phillips curve Since the end of 1960’s: major monetarist proposition were adopted by the Keynesians –Natural rate of unemployment and expectations augmented Phillips curve fit into neoclassical synthesis –Keynesians accepted the importance of monetary policies ( along Friedman’s recommendations)

4. Reality of 1970’s Continuous high inflation and high unemployment External oil shocks (1973 and 1979) Failure of Keynesian economic policies But also monetarist recommendation seemed to be sterile when facing a new reality

5. XV.2 Basic framework

6. Robert E. Lucas Jr. 1937 – University of Chicago Leading personality of “New Classical Revolution” Economist, but originally studied history Nobel prize 1995

7. Thomas J. Sargent 1943 – Teacher at several US Universities, namely Minnesota, Chicago, Stanford and New York (currently), essential advanced macroeconomic theory textbooks Rational expectations Impact on (namely) monetary policies, statistical operationality of RE, models of Phillips curve, demand for money in hyperinflations, intertemporal coordination of monetary and fiscal policies, etc. Nobel prize in 2011 (with Christopher Sims)

8. Assumptions/features In search of macroeconomic theory, rooted in micro foundations and Walrasian general equilibrium approach All economic agents optimize continuously, i.e. subject to their constraints, firms maximize profits and households maximize utility In taking optimizing decisions, agents take into account only relative prices (do not suffer from money illusion) Agents able to exhaust all profitable opportunities, wages and prices are flexible and markets continuously clear

9. Facing the challenge of reality Both Keynesian and monetary framework insufficient Consequently - see assumptions above - return to classical model, i.e. money neutral, AS and LRPC vertical But, reality (data) not consistent with classical assumptions either, namely short-run correlations –positive: price and output (upward sloping AS) –positive: nominal money supply and real GDP (non-neutral money) –negative: inflation and unemployment (downward sloping PC) New Classical solution: existence of non-neutralities given by imperfect information, agents have –A novelty, indeed: classical, pre-WWI model, always assumed perfect information

10. Three basic building blocks Rational expectations Continuous market learning New concept of aggregate supply

11. XV.3 Rational expectations (REH)

12. The importance of expectations Economic decisions: action today to receive uncertain return in the future –Quality of expectations crucial, most famous example: expected inflation in wage negotiations Expectation: not only one predicted value, but a probability distribution of all possible outcomes Two crucial issues –How people get, process and use information to form expectations? –What type of expectations hypothesis is most suitable for application in macroeconomics?

13. Medium term adjustment P Y LRAS A B C

14. Rationale All previous models, be it neoclassical synthesis, monetarism - either explicitly or implicitly used expectations So far, PFH or AEH and - in the long run - return to potential output and other natural values Even when adjustment to past errors takes place (AEH), the errors are all the time systematically biased P e -P

15. Origins John Muth (1961): –“Economists should be more careful about their informational assumption, in particular about the ways, the expectations are formed.” –“ … expectations since they are informed predictions of future events are essentially the same as predictions of the relevant economic theory.” Econometrica (1961): Rational Expectations and the Theory of Price Movements Before, expectations either neglected, considered strictly exogenous (Keynes) or modeled in a way that allowed for a systematic errors (monetarists, AEH)

16. Definitions : information set, available to agent i at the beginning of period : subjective (personal) expectation by agent i of variable v for current period, made in previous period : true expectation for v, given

17. Weak version - basic idea (1) People, when forming subjective expectations, do make errors (no perfect foresight) BUT: they do make NO systemic errors Weak version of REH: We have –where

18. Weak version - basic idea (2) Interpretation: subjective expectation for a variable v, made by particular agent i at previous period, is equal to the true value of v plus an error term with zero mean The objective, true conditional expectation E[.] exists, i.e. the information set Ω is sufficient to allow agent to determine E[.] Agents’ expectations are always consistent with their information

19. What makes it rational? See assumptions above - all agents are optimizers  they are also using all available information in an optimal way (best use of info) Weak version: in forming the expectations, agents perform cost-benefit analysis regarding how much information to obtain Compared to AEH, agents use all available info –AEH: learning from the past mistakes in predicting only the same variable –REH: taking into account all information, about all other variables and about all other relevant facts

20. Strong version Weak version plus assumption that all relevant information is available to the agent, namely: –A complete, true economic model of the economy and all the rules that govern the decisions of all other agents –The values of all exogenous variables till present moment (including all probability distributions, if some of the exogenous are stochastic) –Realized values of all endogenous variables (and eventual stochastic exogenous) till the present moment … in another words: “one should know everything” However, it is this strong version that is usually assumed in the model with rational expectations

21. What does it exactly mean? People DO make errors in forecast –It is NOT perfect foresight The errors are due to the incomplete information The errors are independent on the information set Ω -1 On average, agent’s expectations are correct, i.e. equal to the true values –Expectations are NOT systematically wrong over time (are not biased)

22. XV.4 Continuous market clearing

23. Rationality  optimization  equilibrium Agents –either perform an optimal search for all available information (weak version) –or just have all information from period -1 (strong version) In both cases they are (a) rational, (b) optimizing their behavior  the resulting prices and quantities are consistent with general equilibrium outcomes Consequently: all markets clear

24. Back to Walras Market outcomes – optimal demand and supply responses of economic agents to their perception of prices Equilibrium approach The most controversial assumption of New Classical Macroeconomics

25. XV.5 Lucas’ Aggregate Supply If both firms and households have complete information, than – assuming rational expectations – the forecast is always perfect –Rational expectations with PFH, i.e. with classical model Reality –Firms: usually have complete information, including the price –Households: do not have complete information

26. Labor market Start with the classical case, i.e. full employment N * (and Y * ). In next period actual price P>P -1, known to firms, but unknown to households They can make only expectations, assume Firms: know that real wage is lower at any nominal wage → shift of N D Households: don’t know that real wage is for any nominal wage lower → do not shift N S Increase in equilibrium employment

27. N W Two comments: if price has decreased, there would be shift of N D to the left and new employment would be lower than original one if households knew the actual price, they would shift N S properly and the model is classical.

28. Aggregate supply Short run production function: Lucas’ aggregate supply: – is potential (natural) output and –Underestimation of price: –Overestimation of price: –Correct forecast: Aggregate supply of output increases with the increase of the ratio of actual and expected price level

29. Y P AS Y*Y* P=P e

30. XV.6 The model

31. Anticipated policies Equilibrium model with rational expectations –just on ADxAS level Suppose an exogenous change People form expectations of price changes as a consequence of change in M Rational expectation: if people anticipate the monetary policy and there is no other random shock, than they will make a proper forecast of price, because –They have full information –They don’t make systematic errors In this case, given the price changes, both AD and AS shift

32. Anticipated monetary change P Y LRAS A B C

33. Un-anticipated policies Suppose, that the change in monetary policy is not anticipated by the households and/or some random shocks appear Then households will not properly forecast the price level, but firms will → only AD shifts, but AS does not There is a new equilibrium level of employment and output as a consequence of change in the monetary policy

34. Un-anticipated monetary change P Y LRAS A B

35. Anticipated and un- anticipated policies Anticipated: households immediately adjust expectations (and behavior) –Market clearing –Vertical, classical AS Un-anticipated: households make mistake from the shock –Equilibrium moves along the positively sloped Lucas’ AS –New equilibrium output (and employment) However, given the rational expectation proposition, this is not the end of the story – in the next period, households learn their mistake and will adjust → return to Y * anyway

36. Do economic policies matter? New Classical Macroeconomics –Allows for short term fluctuations from natural values –Based on completely different theory than the Keynesian one –Consistent with microeconomic assumptions –Limited effects of governmental policies: If policies anticipated, than quick adjustment and no effect on output (and other variables) If un-anticipated policy (or some random, exogenous shock), than after some short term fluctuations adjustment to natural values anyway Policy impotence proposition – PIP

37. XV.7 Conclusions

38. Critical assessment New Classical Economics - a “great leap forward”, but a lot of criticism Rational expectations: –Costs to obtain information –What is the correct model of the economy? –Risk vs. uncertainty Continuous clearing: –Sluggish adjustment of prices and wages –Involuntary unemployment Empirical studies –There is an empirical support for non-neutrality of the money (anticipated nominal money change has an impact on real output)

39. A permanent legacy Rational expectations (as opposed to AEH) –Adopted by all subsequent macroeconomic schools (see next Lectures) Anticipated vs. un-anticipated policies Equilibrium approach The real business cycle school

40. Literature to Ch. XV Snowdon, Vane, A Modern Guide to Macroeconomics, Edvard Elgar, 2005, Ch.5 verbal, relatively easy and instructive explanation Heijdra, Modern Macroeconomics, Oxford, 2009, Ch.4 slightly more formal, need to study previous three chapters as well, but very good examples See the references in both textbooks above