1. 1 1.8.1.1.3.3.6 Structural and Failure Analysis Cost & Risk Assessment Shahram Sharafat TBM Cost Estimate Meeting UCLA Dec. 12-13, 2005

2. 2 Lower Level WBS Elements for Structural & Failure Analysis US Test Blanket Work Breakdown Structure

3. 3 ACTION 1&2: Lower Level WBS Elements- Structural Analysis (2)

4. 4 TBM- Structural and Failure Analysis Earlier Cost Estimates: Oct. 2005

5. 5 ACTIVITY LIST

6. 6 TASK-E: 1.8.1.1.3.3.1 Task Force & Infrastructure E.1 Organizational E.1.1 Establish SFA Task Force E.1.2 Develop and maintain "SFA-Database" - Intranet Web-Site for Maintaining Rolling Records of SFA Activities E.1.3 Establish Guidelines and Procedures for SFA Calculations E.1.4 Establish Protocols for Interaction with Design Team Members E.1.5 Establish Protocol for Interaction with Fabrication Team Members E.1.6 Establish Guidelines and Protocols for SFA Results Reporting E.1.7 Develop Templates and Forms E.1.7.1 Request for Work Order E.1.7.2 Request for Material Property Data E.1.7.3 Request for Material Property Models E.1.7.4 Request for "Design by Experiment" E.1.8 Channeling and assignment of tasks to SFA members E.2 Material Properties Tracking E.2.1 Submit Request for tailoring and expanding US-Fusion Materials Database for SFA Needs (add Breeder Materials, SiC, Cu, Be, W: as needed) E.2.2 Augment US-Fusion Materials Database with Material Property Models E.2.3 Augment US-Fusion Materials Database with Material Property Data from Fabrication Activities Task E: WORK BREADKDOWN SCHEDULE

7. 7 TASK-B: 1.8.1.1.3.3.2 Design Evaluation B.1 Design Engineering and Analysis B.1.1 Receive, Approve, Archive SFA Work Order Request (SFA-WO) B.1.2 Record Design Feature Details (thickness, fillets, rounds, chamfers, welds, brazes, etc.) on Analysis Database B.1.3 Determine Design Tolerances B.1.4 Identify Material Choices B.1.5 Identify Loads and Load Histories B.1.6 Establish Event Category B.1.7 Complete SFA-WOR B.1.6 Archive B1.1.1 - B1.1.7 in Analysis Database B.2 Archiving Results B.2.1 Channel SFA Result Report to Design Team B.2.2 Report Key SFA Findings to Design Team B.2.3 Archive Design Team Response to SFA Results B.2.4 Establish further Need for SFA B.2.5 Archive Future Action on Analysis Database Task B: WORK BREADKDOWN SCHEDULE

8. 8 TASK-A: 1.8.1.1.3.3.3 Modeling and Computation A.1 Structural & Failure Analysis Calculations A.1.1 Establish Analysis Category A.1.1.1 Thermal A.1.1.2 Mechanical A.1.1.3 Thermo-Mechanical A.1.1.4 Multiphysics A.1.2 Establish Component-Type Analysis A.1.2.1 Global SFA (entire components) A.1.2.2 Local or Substructure Analysis A.1.2.3 TBM Structural Component A.1.2.4 Breeder A.1.2.5 Structure-Breeder Interaction A.1.2.6 TBM Support Structure A.1.2.7 Piping A.1.2.8 Solid Joints (HIP, welds, brazes, coatings) A.1.2.9 Frictional Joints (flanges, bolts, fittings) A.1.2.10 Flexible Joint A.1.2.11 Cooling Manifolds A.1.2.12 Other: Keys, Gaskets, etc. A.1.3 Establish Event Category A.1.3.1 Normal Operation A.1.3.2 Off-Normal Operation A.1.3.3 Transients A.1.3.4 Cyclic A.1.3.5 Creep A.1.3.6 Disruption A.1.3.7 Start-Up A.1.3.8 Shut-Down A.1.4 Determine Analysis Type (mechanical only) A.1.4.1 Elastic A.1.4.2 Inelastic A.1.4.2.1 Load Limit & Elastic-Perfectly Plastic A.1.4.2.2 Elastic-Plastic A.1.4.3 Buckling A.1.4.4 Modal A.1.5 Establish Service Requirements (allowable damage limits) A.1.5.1 Operational A.1.5.2 Likely A.1.5.3 Unlikely A.1.5.4 Extremely Unlikely Event A.1.6 Assess Analysis Requirements A.1.6.1 Model A.1.6.1.1 Component/design geometry details A.1.6.1.2 Interface information A.1.6.1.3 Boundary conditions A.1.6.1.4 Loads A.1.6.1.5 Loading History A.1.6.1.6 Explanatory Diagrams A.1.6.1.7 CAD model transferability A.1.6.2 Material Property Data and Models A.1.6.2.1 Property data A.1.6.2.2 Property models (constitutive eqs., damage functions) A.1.7 Justify 3-D models used for geometry and loadings A.1.8 Develop 3-D Geometry Models A.1.8.1 Import or create 3-D models A.1.8.2 Justify 3-D model simplifications (if any) A.1.8.3 Justify loading model A.1.9 Perform Structural & Failure Analysis Calculations A.1.9.1 FEM: A.1.9.1.1 Establish computational needs A.1.9.1.2 Upload and run FEM A.1.9.1.3 Archive model, loading, and results A.1.9.2 Perform analytical calculations (when possible) A.2 Analysis of Results A.2.1 Assessment of Validity of Results A.2.2 Compare with analytical or experimental results A.2.3 Compare results with acceptance criteria: A.2.2.1 Identify and classify stresses (primary, secondary, bending, membrane, etc.) A.2.2.2 Determine stress and/or strain concentration factors A.2.2.3 Compare with SDC-IC design rules (stresses, strains, deformations, damage fractions, etc.) A.2.4 Determine uncertainties A.2.5 Establish need for "design by experiment" (too complex for SFA alone): A.2.4.1 Unacceptable uncertainties A.2.4.2 Non-justifiable simplifications A.2.4.3 Insufficient material property data or models A.3 Reporting Results A.3.1 Report and Archive Results on Analysis Database A.3.2 Write and Archive Results Summary Report on Analysis Database Task A: WORK BREADKDOWN SCHEDULE

9. 9 TASK-D: 1.8.1.1.3.3.3 Modeling and Computation (2) D.1 Detailing Operational Conditions and Analysis Requirements D.1.2 Acquire Detailed Operating Conditions of Component from TBM Team D.1.3 Record Details of the Event Category D.1.4 Identify Material Property Data and Modeling Sufficiency for SFA D.1.5 Report to Materials Development and Fabrication Teams any needed Material Property Data D.1.6 Report to Materials Modeling Team any needed Property Models (constitutive eqs., damage functions) D.1.7 Identify Design Rules and Codes (SDC-IC) Sufficiency D.1.8 Archive D.12 - D.1.7 in Analysis Database D.2 Integration with SFA Calculation Team D.2.1 Channel Operational Conditions to SFA Calculation Team D.2.2 Supply SFA Team with Material Property and Model Data D.2.3 Inform SFA Team of ITER Design Rules to be used (SDC-IC) D.3 Archiving SFA Operational Damage Response D.3.1 Archive Response from SFA Team on Impact of Operational Condition on Analysis Task D: WORK BREADKDOWN SCHEDULE

10. 10 TASK-C: 1.8.1.1.3.3.4 Validation and Testing Engineering C.1 Interfacing with Fabrication Engineering Team C.1.1 Establish Component Fabrication Methods in Analysis Database C.1.1.1 Forming and Shaping Procedures C.1.1.2 Joining C.1.1.2.1 HIP C.1.1.2.2 Weld C.1.1.2.3 Braze C.1.1.2.4 Bolt C.1.1.2.5 Coating C.1.2 Submit Fabrication Team with Needed Material Property Data C.1.2.1 Physical C.1.2.2 Thermal C.1.2.3 Mechanical C.1.2.3.1 Fracture C.1.2.3.2 DBTT C.1.2.3.3 Creep C.1.2.3.4 Fatigue C.1.2.3.5 Irradiation C.1.2.4 Microstructure C.1.2.4.1 Grain Structure C.1.2.4.2 Defect, bubble, density C.2 Integration of Fabrication Engr. Response C.2.1 Acquire and Archive Fabrication Procedures C.2.2 Archive Material Data and Material Models in Analysis Database C.3 Integration with SFA Calculation Team C.3.1 Inform SFA Team of Fabrication Procedures C.3.2 Request SFA Team to analyze and comment on Fabrication Impact on analysis results (e.g., residual stresses) C.3.3 Archive Response from SFA Team on Fabrication Impact on Analysis C.4 Request for "Design by Experiment" (DBE) C.4.1 Identify Need for DBE (mission critical component; inconclusive SFA results, analysis too comples for SFA alone) C.4.2 Report Requirements/Conditions for DBE to Fabrication Team Task C: WORK BREADKDOWN SCHEDULE

11. 11 RISK ASSESSMENT (1)

12. 12 RISK ASSESSMENT (2)

13. 13 RISK ASSESSMENT (3)

14. 14 RISK ASSESSMENT (4)

15. 15

16. 16

17. 17 Summary Cost Estimate

18. 18 Backup Slides on Detailed WBS