2. - Unit VII - Decision-making Processes for Invasive Species – Risk Assessment Models and Systems Randy G. Westbrooks Rebecca M. Westbrooks Steven Manning Global Invasive Species Programme Cape Town, South Africa

3. Unit VII Objectives Explore the primary principles of Pest Risk Analysis. Explore the primary principles of Pest Risk Analysis. Learn about the traditional prohibited listing approach for IAS. Learn about the traditional prohibited listing approach for IAS. Learn about the permitted listing approach for IAS. Learn about the permitted listing approach for IAS. Conduct a weed risk assessment exercise with a known IAS. Conduct a weed risk assessment exercise with a known IAS.

4. Williamson* Rule of Tens for IAS 10% of Introductions Establishes Casual Populations - (10/100) 10% of Introductions Establishes Casual Populations - (10/100) 10% of Casuals become Naturalized (1/100) 10% of Casuals become Naturalized (1/100) 10% of Naturalized Species Becomes IAS 10% of Naturalized Species Becomes IAS *Dr. Mark Williams, U.K.

5. Mack* Rule of Tens for Invasive Plants 10% of Introduced Plants will establish Free Living (Naturalized) Populations (1/100) 10% of Introduced Plants will establish Free Living (Naturalized) Populations (1/100) 10% of Free Living Exotic Plants will Become Invasive (1%) 10% of Free Living Exotic Plants will Become Invasive (1%) *Dr. Richard Mack, Washington State University, Pullman, Washington, USA

6. Weed Risk Assessment question sheet Answer yes orno, or leave blank, unless otherwise indicated Options for Controlling IAS Introductions. Place no limits on introductions at all (ecologically and economically reckless). Place no limits on introductions at all (ecologically and economically reckless). Prohibit all planned introductions (socially and Politically unsustainable). Prohibit all planned introductions (socially and Politically unsustainable). Assess Risk to Determine Introductions Assess Risk to Determine Introductions

7. 7.1. Principles of Pest Risk Analysis Stage 1 – Initiate Pest Risk Analysis Stage 1 – Initiate Pest Risk Analysis Identify the Target Species Identify the Target Species Determine Distribution within Receiving Country Determine Distribution within Receiving Country Identify Pathways of Entry Identify Pathways of Entry Stage 2 – Conduct Pest Risk Assessment Stage 2 – Conduct Pest Risk Assessment Stage 3 – Develop Pest Risk Management Plan (Plan for Exclusion, EDRR, etc.) Stage 3 – Develop Pest Risk Management Plan (Plan for Exclusion, EDRR, etc.)

8. 7.1. IPPC Standards for Phytosanitary Measures. ISPM 11 – Pest Risk Analysis for Quarantine Pests (2004) ISPM 11 – Pest Risk Analysis for Quarantine Pests (2004) Parties to IPPC in Eastern/Central/Southern Africa Parties to IPPC in Eastern/Central/Southern Africa Egypt, Sudan, Eritrea, Ethiopia, Kenya, D.R. Congo, Burundi, Zambia, Malawi, Madagascar, Mauritius, Swaziland, South Africa Egypt, Sudan, Eritrea, Ethiopia, Kenya, D.R. Congo, Burundi, Zambia, Malawi, Madagascar, Mauritius, Swaziland, South Africa Countries not Parties to IPPC Countries not Parties to IPPC Djibouti, Somalia, Uganda, Rwanda, Tanzania, Seychelles, Comoros Islands, Mozambique, Reunion, Zimbabwe, Botswana, Lesotho Djibouti, Somalia, Uganda, Rwanda, Tanzania, Seychelles, Comoros Islands, Mozambique, Reunion, Zimbabwe, Botswana, Lesotho

9. 7.2. Official Listing Approaches. Traditional Prohibited Listing Approach Traditional Prohibited Listing Approach Assess and List High Profile IAS that Meeting IPPC Criteria as Quarantine Significant Pests Assess and List High Profile IAS that Meeting IPPC Criteria as Quarantine Significant Pests Permitted Listing Approach Permitted Listing Approach Assess all Species Proposed for Introduction to Determine if they should be Officially Listed Assess all Species Proposed for Introduction to Determine if they should be Officially Listed

10. 7.3. Prohibited Listing Approach. Proposed Exotic Species that Meet Criteria as Quarantine Significant Pests Proposed Exotic Species that Meet Criteria as Quarantine Significant Pests Officially List and Prohibit Entry Officially List and Prohibit Entry Imported Exotic Species that Have not been Assessed Imported Exotic Species that Have not been Assessed Species that Harbor Prohibited Pests (Regulate Entry under Appropriate Regulation; Inspect and Treat) Species that Harbor Prohibited Pests (Regulate Entry under Appropriate Regulation; Inspect and Treat) Species that do not Harbor Regulated Pests (Inspect and Release) Species that do not Harbor Regulated Pests (Inspect and Release) Imported Cargo Imported Cargo Harbors Prohibited Pests (Inspect and Treat) Harbors Prohibited Pests (Inspect and Treat) Does not Harbor Prohibited Pests (Inspect and Release) Does not Harbor Prohibited Pests (Inspect and Release) Mediterranean Fruitfly Wheat Infected with Karnal Bunt Purple Loosestrife Cargo Infested with Prohibited Pest

11. The listing process is typically long and tedious The listing process is typically long and tedious Species that are not on the list may enter freely unless they are prohibited under other plant quarantine regulations. Species that are not on the list may enter freely unless they are prohibited under other plant quarantine regulations. Most prohibited lists have traditionally focused on excluding plant pests of agriculture and rangelands. However, many plant pests of forests and other natural areas are not pests of agriculture. Most prohibited lists have traditionally focused on excluding plant pests of agriculture and rangelands. However, many plant pests of forests and other natural areas are not pests of agriculture. It presumes that most major pests likely to be imported have been identified and listed. It presumes that most major pests likely to be imported have been identified and listed. 7.3. Prohibited Listing Approach.

12. 7.3. Case Study – Prohibited List System. U.S. Federal Noxious Weed List. A. Identity, Description, General Morphology, Preferred Habitat, Native and World Distribution B. Quarantine Pest Status C. Establishment Potential in Areas of Concern in USA High – Medium – Low – Negligible D. Spread Potential After Establishment High – Medium – Low – Negligible E. Potential Economic Impacts High – Medium – Low – Negligible F. Potential Environmental Impacts High – Medium – Low – Negligible G. Cumulative Risk Score C+D+E+F High – Medium – Low – Negligible H. Likelihood of Introduction High – Medium – Low – Negligible I. Estimated Pest Risk Potential (G+H) G+H

13. 7.4. Permitted Listing Approach. Assesses all Species Proposed for Importation to Determine if they should be Officially Listed. Assesses all Species Proposed for Importation to Determine if they should be Officially Listed. Permitted List – Species that are Assessed and Determined to be non-quarantine Significant Permitted List – Species that are Assessed and Determined to be non-quarantine Significant Prohibited List – Species that are Assessed and are Determined to be Quarantine Significant Prohibited List – Species that are Assessed and are Determined to be Quarantine Significant

14. 7.4.1. Case Study – Permitted Listing System. The Australian Quarantine Inspection Service Weed Risk Assessment System. Scoring System with 49 Questions to Rank Various Characters of a Plant for Invasiveness. Scoring System with 49 Questions to Rank Various Characters of a Plant for Invasiveness. Section A – History and Biogeography Section A – History and Biogeography Domestication and Cultivation Domestication and Cultivation Climate and Distribution Climate and Distribution Weed Elsewhere? Weed Elsewhere? Section B – Biology/Ecology - Weediness Traits Section B – Biology/Ecology - Weediness Traits Section C – Biology/Ecology – Plant Type, Reproduction, Dispersal, Persistence Section C – Biology/Ecology – Plant Type, Reproduction, Dispersal, Persistence Scoring System Scoring System >1 = Accept for Importation >1 = Accept for Importation 1 – 6 = Evaluate Further 1 – 6 = Evaluate Further > 6 = Reject Entry > 6 = Reject Entry Developer - Dr. Paul Pheloung - AQIS Developer - Dr. Paul Pheloung - AQIS

15. Unit 7. Lab Exercise. Weed Risk Assessment – Beach Vitex (P. 206). Beach Vitex – (Vitex rotundifolia) Beach Vitex – (Vitex rotundifolia) Woody Vine, Native to Asian Mainland (Korea) Woody Vine, Native to Asian Mainland (Korea) History in USA History in USA 1985 – Introduced to Southeast Coast by NC State University, Coastal Dune Erosion Control, Ornamental 1985 – Introduced to Southeast Coast by NC State University, Coastal Dune Erosion Control, Ornamental 1995 – Spreading from Plantings on Carolina Coast 1995 – Spreading from Plantings on Carolina Coast 2002 – Threat to Dune Plants and Animals, Sea Turtle Nesting 2002 – Threat to Dune Plants and Animals, Sea Turtle Nesting 2003 – Carolinas Beach Vitex Task Force Established 2003 – Carolinas Beach Vitex Task Force Established 2005 – Weed Risk Assessment Conducted; Recommended for Listing as U.S. Federal Noxious Weed 2005 – Weed Risk Assessment Conducted; Recommended for Listing as U.S. Federal Noxious Weed