1. Criminal Designs Sheila M. Bird (sheila.bird@mrc-bsu.cam.ac.uk) MRC Biostatistics Unit, CAMBRIDGE CB2 2SR

2. “What works” in UK criminal justice? Large RCTs essentially untried...

3. Judges prescribe sentence on lesser evidence than doctors prescribe medicines Is public aware?

4. Drug Treatment &Testing Orders (DTTOs): evaluations charade (1) England and Wales: 210 clients Scotland: 96 clients Targets for DTTO clients in E&W: 6000+ per annum DTTO clients > > 21,000 by end 2003

5. RSS Court DTTO-eligible offenders: do DTTOs work ? Off 1 DTTO Off 2 DTTO Off 3 alternative = Off 4 DTTO Off 5 alternative = Off 6 alternative = Database linkage to find out about major harms: offenders’ deaths, re-incarcerations &... Serious further offences

6. Judicial trial’s 3-way randomisation: D = 400 to DTTO, A = 400 to alternative, J = 800 to judge decides between DTTO versus alternative Is J. better than A+D?

7. Performance Monitoring in the Public Services

8. Electronic tag as worn by offenders

9. Electronic surveillance: tagging  ? diversion from prison, RLO (Restriction of Liberty Order)  early release from prison, HDC (Home Detention Curfew)  diversion from remanded to jail, EM-bail (Electronically-Monitored bail versus remand may influence trial date and/or judge’s sentence... )  ? addition to community sentence, ISSP (Intensive Supervision and Surveillance Program)

10. Linked fatalities per 10,000 offender-years Offender category Estimated number Estimated offender-years Linked fatalities Fatality rate per 10,000 offender-years HDC: early release,England 135,000 (1999-2005) 18K ~ 33K61.8 ~ 3.4 Foreign non-deported: ~ 2,500 (1999-2006) 7.75K2At least 2.6 RLOs: Scotland 2,957 (2002-2005) 1.25K or (500 jail-diverted) 1 8 or (~ 20) Curfew Os: England ~54,186 (1999-2005) ~12.8K?? HMI Probation ? (per annum: England, 2005) 200K~ 40 ~ 2

11. Cost per linked fatality? £1.5 millions pounds mostly, life-years lost and impact on families  costed, but not re-imbursed, by Criminal Justice!

12. Restriction of Liberty Orders Scotland’s CJ study... Public consultation... Private tender for electronic tagging... Post-marketing surveillance... (diverted from jail?)

13. Application of scientific method R andomisation: to compare like with like A dequate study size: for precise estimation R eporting standards: as in medical journals E fficacy and costs: rational, prior estimates P eer scientific review of S tudy/trial protocol

14. Scottish courts’ RLO-eligible offenders: ? guess Off 7 RLO [ ? ] Off 8 RLO [ ? ] Off 9 RLO [ ? ] Off10 RLO [ ? ] Off11 RLO [ ? ] Off12 RLO [ ? ] Off13 RLO [ ? ] Off14 RLO [ ? ] Breach rates & costs versus... [ ? ]

15. Evaluations-charade (2) funded guesswork: electronically monitored RLOs Scotland: 143 clients (152 RLOs; 422 assessed) 75% RLOs for 3-6m Failure in 40/143 RLOs; prison for 23/40 + 11/103. Assessed, not given RLO: 40% sent to prison !! Assume equal #s of 3m & 6m RLOs {£3,680}, annual cost in Scotland of £3.68m  1000 RLOs! Saving of  £300,000 if RLOs displace equal length prison terms, or... £1.7m if all displaced prison terms were 6m...

16. Public Consultation v. private contract public opinion re electronically monitoring for... “Cost of national RLO roll out could be in the region of £4 millions annually, compared to a long term prison saving of £1.7 millions!” “1000 RLOs - used as in pilot - could mean reduction of 400 in # custodial terms, but add back 100 for breach actions...”

17. Linked fatality: Scotland Callum Evans (born 1987, Restriction of Liberty Order, June 2005): with Peter Clark (also 18) in October 2005, murdered 23-year old John Hatfield (132 injuries ~ knife/machete & axe) outside CE’s home. CE’s being outside his residence did not trigger alarm because tag had been wrongly set by Reliance

18. Was CE’s RLO a diversion from jail ? or Tagging added to community order ? Not known !

19. DESIGN: Electronically-Monitored bail v. remanded to prison When to randomise? What to compare? Costs?

20. Post-RCT Outcomes Re index offence: Time to trial/sentence Actual sentence Within y years: Days in custody Days on community order Serious further offence Survival @ 3 years Costs

21. Randomised controlled trials to police Policy by Home Office Prisons & Criminal Justice

22. Evaluations-charade Failure to randomise Failure to find out about major harms Failure even to elicit alternative sentence  funded guesswork on relative cost-effectiveness Volunteer-bias in follow-up interviews Inadequate study size re major outcomes...

23. Five PQs for every CJ initiative PQ1: Minister, why no randomised controls? PQ2: Minister, why have judges not even been asked to document offender’s alternative sentence that this CJ initiative supplants {re CE}? PQ3: What statistical power does Ministerial pilot have re well-reasoned targets? {or just kite flying...} PQ4: Minister, cost-effectiveness is driven by longer-term health & CJ harms, how are these ascertained {  database linkage}? PQ5: Minister, any ethical/consent issues?