1. Confidential Turning Point Leveraging Deterrence and Desistance to Reduce Reoffending A joint research endeavor Molly Slothower University of Maryland University of Cambridge Peter Neyroud University of Cambridge

2. Confidential Overview ‣ Theory and Evidence: Why Should This Work? ‣ The Experiment ‣ Early Findings: Application to Conditional Cautions/Community Remedy

3. Confidential Deterrence: Certainty and swiftness of punishment Project HOPE Sword of Damocles Desistance Almost all offenders desist eventually Often “turning points” lead to desistance Court is often a “turning point for the worse” Building on lessons from the best available research…

4. Confidential For many low-risk offenders, a court conviction increases offending ‣ 63% of magistrate court sentences in the UK are only a fine. ‣ Court often fails to address issues that caused the offending: drugs, relationship problems ‣ With a criminal conviction offenders have difficulty getting jobs to keep them out of trouble. ‣ They may gain access to criminal networks. ‣ Once an offender has a conviction, research shows the threat of another conviction is a far less effective deterrent.

5. Confidential Systematic review of all studies on juvenile court processing finds juvenile court does not reduce reoffending overall. Most studies: backfiring effect “Almost all of the results are negative in direction, as measured by prevalence, incidence, severity, and self-report outcomes.” Petrosino et al. (2010) 35 years, 29 studies, over 7,000 juveniles

6. Confidential The Key: Separating High vs. Low Risk Offenders ‣ Evidence shows high risk offenders need to be targeted with high supervision AND high rehabilitation… ‣ …but treating low-risk offenders as if they are high risk increases their offending. ‣ Target resources to high-risk, divert low-risk into low-cost, high-impact interventions.

7. Confidential Sample of offenders whom the police have decided to prosecute. Prosecution Turning Point Comparing like with like: Measure reoffending, cost, victim satisfaction Random assignment The Turning Point Experiment

8. Confidential What ’ s Involved? ‣ Voluntary participation ‣ Agreed ‘ Turning-Point Plan ’ ‣ Compliance = no prosecution ‣ Non-compliance Failure to keep to plan Reoffending Breach Prosecution

9. Confidential ‣ Cases entered on the randomiser at the point of charge Sufficient evidence Other options discounted ‣ Admission Not required ‣ Likely sentence Not custodial ‣ Previous convictions None, or 1 historic Previous diversions are fine ‣ Sensitive case Risk management No DV, hate, sexual offences Filters/Factors

10. Confidential Ethics Unknown outcome Randomisation only after decision to prosecute is made – non-worsening principle High need No UK RCTs of diversion effectiveness in decades Yet diversion is 38% of all disposals (Joint Inspectorate data) Victims

11. Confidential

12. (n=42 cases) Adult Treatment Plans Pilot Phase

13. Confidential Randomly Assigned Court or Breached 1.Guilty £110 fine. £15 victim support. £50 costs. 2.Guilty plea. £140 fine. 3.Guilty plea. 12 month conditional discharge. 4.Guilty. Conditional discharge 12 Months. £145 Costs. 5.Guilty plea. Sentence pending. 6.Pled Guilty. £130 Fine £185 Costs. 7.Guilty. 12 Month Community Order. £100 Comp. £300 Costs. Tagged for 6 weeks. 8.Guilty. £110 fine. £85 Costs. 9.Guilty. 12 Weeks suspended sentence £50 Comp. 10.Found not guilty. 11.Not Guilty. 12.Trial pending. 13.PIC failed to attend court, warrant issued for arrest. No further updates.

14. Confidential Turning Point Offenders: ‣ “It keeps you out of trouble and gives you something to look forward to… It keeps it in your head that you’ve got people there who actually want to be there to help you change the way you are, and your future.” ‣ Offender with a curfew as part of her Turning Point Plan: “I just don’t go out with the people I used to go out with to get into that predicament again. I stay in more now. I go out with my family, my gran and my mom and stuff like that.”

15. Confidential For many first time offenders, their first conviction often increases offending “When I’m older, if I go to court, I won’t be as scared because I’ve already done it.” - A young offender (assault) recently in West Midlands, talking about how he thought being prosecuted would impact his life “When I’m older, if I go to court, I won’t be as scared because I’ve already done it.” - A young offender (assault) recently in West Midlands, talking about how he thought being prosecuted would impact his life

16. Confidential “Offenders judge some supervised diversion programs as more punitive than short incarceration terms... [especially those] that include mandatory work and drug testing requirements.” Petersilia, J. (2011). “Community Corrections: Probation, Parole, and Prisoner Reentry”. In Crime and Public Policy (eds. Wilson, J. Q., and Petersilia, J.). Oxford University Press.

17. Confidential Turning Point Pilot Period

18. Confidential Early Findings: Conditional Cautions and the Community Remedy

19. Confidential The Key: Quality of implementation Tremendous potential Reduce reoffending Satisfy victims Cut criminal justice costs Substantial risks Ineffective/backfiring conditions Upset victims Loss of public trust and confidence

20. Confidential Physicians – professional discretion Diagnosis Selection of treatment pathways Dosage NOT “how to” Some space to innovate where appropriate Key lessons Bounded discretion — Balancing professional discretion, structure — Decision support — Management technology