1. Commentary on “Seeing is Believing” Don Hine PhD Psychology University of New England

2. Seeing is Believing! (Experiential Learning) 4 Themes Direct experience of extreme weather events. Increased concern/belief In climate change And (hopefully!) adaptive responding

3. Believing is Seeing! (Motivated Reasoning) 4 Themes Pre-existing belief in and concern about climate change Attribution of disasters and extreme weather events to Climate Change

4. Or… Believing is NOT Seeing! (Motivated Reasoning) 4 Themes Pre-existing skepticism or denial of human-induced climate change Natural disasters and extreme weather events are viewed as “nothing out of the ordinary” or attributed to other factors Newsnet5.com, 21-01-2012

5. Experiential Learning vs Motivated Reasoning Myers et al. (2012). The relationship between personal experience and belief in the reality of global warming. Nature Climate Change.  Sample  Longitudinal data (2008 and 2011)  Nationally representative US sample  Main finding: Evidence to support both models.  Motivated reasoning occurs primarily amongst individuals who are highly engaged in climate change issues.  Experiential learning occurs primarily amongst individuals who are less engaged.

6. Implications  Depending on their prior beliefs about climate change, individuals will interpret their experiences with “extreme weather” events in different ways. SegmentDominant Process Response to “Direct Experience” Moments Alarmed (engaged) Motivated Reasoning Direct experience has little impact on concern (remains high) Highly Skeptical (engaged) Motivated Reasoning Direct experience has little impact on concern (remains low) Less EngagedExperiential Learning Direct experience leads to increased concern.

7. Conceptualizing extreme weather events as a type of “fear appeal” Fear Appeal Model Motivation to take Protective Action “Seeing is Believing” Model Direct Experience Concern/Belief Threat message Fear Motivation to take Protective Action

8. Is there anything that we can learn from the FEAR APPEALS literature to:  Better understand the nature of “direct experience” effects?  Transform extreme weather events into “teachable moments” that can help individuals and communities adapt more effectively to climate change?

9. Are fear appeals effective?  Messages designed to elicit FEAR can be a very effective strategy to change behavior, BUT only under certain conditions.  Threat messages that focus exclusively on raising FEAR often elicit defensive reactions (fear control processes): 1. Message avoidance 2. Message rejection 3. Denial of threat Witte & Allen (2000). A meta-analysis of fear appeals: Implications for public health campaigns. Health Education & Behavior.

10. Factors that increase the effectiveness of FEAR messaging 1. The audience believes the threat is relevant to them. 2. The message includes specific advice about how the audience can minimize or avoid the threat. 3. The audience is convinced that recommended actions will be effective in reducing the threat (response efficacy). 4. The audience is convinced that they can successfully engage in the recommended actions (self-efficacy).

11. Implications for the “Seeing is Believing” Model Direct experience with extreme weather events may increase concern about climate change (at least in some groups), but this does not guarantee that adaptive action will necessarily follow. Motivation to take Protective Action “Seeing is Believing” Model Direct Experience Concern/Fear ?

12. A modified model? Direct Experience with Threat Fear/Concern + Hi Efficacy Protective Action Direct Experience with Threat Fear/Concern + Low Efficacy Denial Danger Control Response Fear Control Response

13. Possible Avenues for Future Research  What are the key differences between directly experiencing a climate event and indirectly experiencing the same event through the media or word of mouth? Are the effects qualitatively different?  What are the most effective strategies for building individual and collective self-efficacy to effectively adapt to climate change? And are different strategies required for different segments in the population (e.g., alarmed, skeptical, and disengaged)?  What is the impact of repeated exposures to extreme weather events (e.g, 2011 and 2013 QLD floods) on fear, concern, self-efficacy, and motivation to take protective action? What can be done to increase the resilience of individuals and communities facing ongoing threats?