1. Travel Behaviour in the GTA: Trends & Prospects
Eric J. Miller, Ph.D.
Bahen-Tanenbaum Professor
Interim Chair, Dept. of Civil Engineering
Director, UTRAC
University of Toronto
Presented to the
Greater Toronto Transportation Conference
November 30, 2007
Urban Transportation Research & Advancement Centre
University of Toronto

2. Urban Transportation Research & Advancement Centre
Presentation Outline
This presentation discusses the relationship between urban form, travel demand and urban
sustainability.
Focus is on:
current travel trends
policy implications
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3. Urban Transportation Research & Advancement Centre
Transportation Tomorrow Survey (TTS)
Since 1986 a major survey of travel behaviour in the GTA (and beyond) has been undertaken at the University of Toronto, funded by all planning agencies in the survey area. With a 5% sample (135,000 households in 2001), TTS is the largest travel survey program in the world. TTS provides an unparalleled database for urban transportation research.
Urban Transportation Research & Advancement Centre
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4. Urban Transportation Research & Advancement Centre
In the GTA, as in most cities, all travel trends with respect to auto usage are in the “wrong” direction, moving towards a less sustainable system.
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5. Long-Term GTA Growth Trends
GTA population, cars & daily trips all increased by about 33% from 1986 to 2001.
Daily auto trips increased by 44%, and the share of auto trips increased by 10% from 72.1 to 79.1% of all trips.
Transit ridership only increased by 5% and its market share declined by 28%, from 21.6 to 15.7 of daily trips.
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6. Urban Transportation Research & Advancement Centre
Suburban regions
Suburban regions
GTA population growth has been largely occurring in lower-density suburban regions:
38-109% in suburban regions
11% in Toronto
15% in Hamilton
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7. Urban Transportation Research & Advancement Centre
increases in:
daily trips per person
auto ownership
auto-drive mode shares
(continuation of long
term trends)
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University of Toronto

8. Urban Transportation Research & Advancement Centre
Summary:
1. More trips/person
2. More cars/household
3. More auto-driving/trip
Trips growing
faster than pop.
Auto trips growing
faster than total
travel.
Highest growth
rates generally in
suburban & fringe
areas
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9. Urban Transportation Research & Advancement Centre
Accessibility
Transportation affects land use and location choice
by providing accessibility to land and activities.
Several measures can be used to quantify the
concept of accessibility. These measures all are:
defined for a specific point in space
a function of the magnitude/attractiveness
of alternative locations
a function of the distance/time required to
reach these locations
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University of Toronto

10. Accessibility Measures
The simplest measure is the number (or fraction) of jobs
(other activities) with x km (or min.) of a point:
Ai = å Ej
jÎSx|i x i
Ai = Accessibility of zone i to employment
Ej = Employment in zone j
Sx|i = Set of employment zones within x min
of zone i
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11. Urban Transportation Research & Advancement Centre
Employment Accessibility
By Car, AM Peak Period
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12. Urban Transportation Research & Advancement Centre
Employment Accessibility
By Transit,
AM Peak Period
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13. Urban Transportation Research & Advancement Centre
Accessibility by Mode
Given the way we have built our cities & our transportation
systems, the automobile provides much higher levels of
accessibility for most people for most activities.
Auto-based trips dominate travel, except in
special circumstances
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14. Urban Transportation Research & Advancement Centre
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15. Urban Transportation Research & Advancement Centre
Transit Usage
Transit usage depends upon:
Auto ownership levels
Residential densities
Employment densities
Transit service levels
Socio-economics
“Walkability” to/from transit
Local transit coverage & connectivity to/from mainline services
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16. Urban Transportation Research & Advancement Centre
Auto Ownership
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17. Urban Transportation Research & Advancement Centre
Population Density
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18. GTA Employment Distributions
1996 Employment Density (Source: Haider, 2003)
1996 GTA Employment
(Source: Haider, 2003)
While many employment centres exist
across the GTA, from a density perspective,
the GTA is still very monocentric.
This has strong implications for transit
usage.
GTA Employment Distributions
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19. Urban Transportation Research & Advancement Centre
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20. Urban Transportation Research & Advancement Centre
Trip lengths & total auto usage
vary with urban form.
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21. Urban Transportation Research & Advancement Centre
So too does
environmental impact.
1996 Avg. Daily
CO2 Emissions
Per Household
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22. Urban Transportation Research & Advancement Centre
… and average annual
transportation costs per
household
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23. Urban Transportation Research & Advancement Centre
Macro vs. Micro Design
“Urban form” is defined at both a “macro” level (spatial
distribution of people, jobs, activities – “land use”) and
the “micro” level of detailed neighbourhood design
(street layouts, density, fine-grain mix of uses, etc.).
Both are important in the determination of travel demand
and transportation system sustainability. But, macro location
effects tend to dominate micro neighbourhood design impacts.
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24. Macro vs. Micro Design, cont’d
1. Conventional suburban
2. Medium density
3. Neo-traditional
Neighbourhood Designs
Source: Greenhouse Gas Emissions from Urban Travel: Tool for Evaluating Neighbourhood Sustainability,
Prepared by IBI Group for CMHC and Natural Resources Canada, Feb. 2000
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25. GTA Growth & Transportation Impacts
Pop. Growth Rate
In a “Business as Usual” scenario with respect to
GTA growth and transit system investment, auto
usage is projected to grow faster than population;
transit usage will grow at about half the rate of
population.
Pop. Growth Rate
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University of Toronto

26. Urban Transportation Research & Advancement Centre
Summary of Findings
Where we grow is critical to transportation sustainability.
Employment concentration along corridors and in nodes
critical to transit usage.
Mixed-use, neighbourhood design critical to walkability and
local transit use.
Transit investment critical to transportation sustainability,
but it must be:
combined with land use design (macro & micro)
deal with local distribution as well as long-distance
“line haul”
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27. Urban Transportation Research & Advancement Centre
Policy Implications
Three broad, inter-related “meta-issues” exist
in urban transportation planning:
1. Sustainability (environmental, economic, social)
2. Efficiency (cost-effectiveness)
3. Equity (distribution of benefits & costs)
Motorization/auto usage lies at
the heart of each of these issues.
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28. - + QUALITY OF LIFE Urban Transportation Research & Advancement Centre
Greenhouse Gas
Emissions
Air Pollution
Urban Sprawl
Congestion
Accidents
Lack of
Exercise
Global Climate
Change
Respiratory &
Other Diseases
Loss of Farmland, Natural
& Urban Habitat
Loss of Productivity &
Leisure Time; Stress
Injuries/Deaths
Productivity/Property Loss
Obesity, Other
Health Problems -
Accessibility to Activities / Mobility +
QUALITY
OF LIFE
Participation in Social, Recreational & Economic Activities
Economic Productivity
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29. Findings & Implications
In many respects the GTA taken as a whole is representative
of other North American cities:
increasing auto ownership
increasing person trip rates
increasing suburbanization of
population and employment
increasingly complex travel
patterns:
more non-work/school trips
more non-home-based trips
more non-peak-period
travel
declining transit mode shares
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30. Findings & Implications, cont’d
At the same time, the GTA (City of Toronto in particular)
deviates from the North American “norm”:
Transit per capita ridership,
mode share & cost/revenue
ratios still very high by
North American standards
GO-Transit (commuter rail)
very successful in competing
for long-distance commuters
Continuing strength/vitality of
the Toronto Central Area
Overall high density & transit
orientation within the
amalgamated city is highly
supportive of transit
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31. Findings & Implications, cont’d
Important to remember/learn from our own experience:
Coordinated land use - transportation planning
designed to emphasize transit does work
It is possible to maintain a strong, livable urban
core, which is the economic heart of an extensive
urban system
serviceable by an attractive, cost-effective
transit system
supportable without continuously expanding
road capacity
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32. Findings & Implications, cont’d
Lessons from the Toronto experience, cont’d:
It is possible to build at higher densities without
loss of quality of life (indeed, the opposite is true)
Regional sub-centre concept works
keeps growth within the core within manageable limits
new foci for transit network development
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33. Findings & Implications, cont’d
At the same time, there is little evidence from anywhere
that low density, auto-oriented, suburban sprawl
generates anything other than the consumption of
more land, more congestion and the “need” for even
more roads.
This never-ending, decentralizing spiral of
development is simply not sustainable in
the long run.
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34. Findings & Implications, cont’d
Elements of a sustainable transportation policy include:
transit- (and walk-) supportive urban development
promotion of non-motorized modes of travel
reinvestment in transit infrastructure & services
innovative transit services
road pricing
parking price/supply
tax reform ….
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35. Policies for Sustainability
None of the ideas listed on the previous slide are new.
What is required is:
The political will/leadership to undertake change.
A willingness to invest in our transportation infrastructure
Taking neighbourhood design seriously
Recognizing that change must occur
“Business as usual” simply will not work
in the future (it isn’t even working now)
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36. Urban Transportation Research & Advancement Centre
THANK YOU.
QUESTIONS?
Auto
Ownership
Transit
Service
Socio-
Economics
Residential
Density
Nbhd.
Design
Employment
Density
Road
Network
Demographics
Accessibility
ILUTE Simulation Model
ACTIVITY/
TRAVEL
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