1. Warn-on-Forecast Parting Shots David J. Stensrud NOAA/National Severe Storms Laboratory

3. SWOT Analysis Strengths Weaknesses Opportunities Threats Just my perspective – Biased, imperfect

4. Strengths

5. Good results!

6. Strengths Good results! Largely independent of DA used, as long as it is designed for convective scale flow!

7. Strengths Good results! Great staff

8. Strengths Good results! Great staff Partnerships cimms

9. Strengths Good results! Great staff Partnerships cimms

10. Strengths Good results! Great staff Partnerships cimms

11. Strengths Good results! Great staff Partnerships Engaged with social sciences from outset

12. Weaknesses

13. Insufficient funding

14. Weaknesses Insufficient funding Computer resources

15. Weaknesses Insufficient funding Computer resources Project management

16. Weaknesses Insufficient funding Computer resources Project management Warn-on-Forecast still Research

17. Weaknesses Insufficient funding Computer resources Project management Warn-on-Forecast still Research Yet already having to address R2O

18. Weaknesses Insufficient funding Computer resources Project management Warn-on-Forecast still Research Yet already having to address R2O This makes life particularly challenging

19. Weaknesses Insufficient funding Computer resources Project management Warn-on-Forecast still Research Yet already having to address R2O This makes life particularly challenging Developing people as well as technology

20. Weaknesses Insufficient funding Computer resources Project management Partnerships

21. Weaknesses Insufficient funding Computer resources Project management Partnerships Focus on tornadic supercells

22. Weaknesses Insufficient funding Computer resources Project management Partnerships Focus on tornadic supercells Social science connection

23. Opportunities

24. Additional funding

25. Opportunities Additional funding Seek our own funding GOES-R support via SPC/NSSL

26. Opportunities Additional funding NOAA planning Radar Vision NWS Roadmap Radar Functional Requirements for 2030

27. Opportunities Additional funding NOAA planning Expanded partnerships NCEP/EMC, WPC, AWC SSD Chiefs ROC, WDTB, JCSDA Within NSSL and other partner groups cimms

28. Threats

29. NOAA bureaucracy

30. Threats NOAA bureaucracy Too much focus on trees instead of the forest

31. Threats NOAA bureaucracy Too much focus on trees instead of the forest Ourselves

32. Threats NOAA bureaucracy Too much focus on trees instead of the forest Ourselves

33. Parting Shots

34. WoF is doing very well

35. Parting Shots WoF is doing very well Weathered federal downturn

36. Parting Shots WoF is doing very well Weathered federal downturn Partnerships intact

37. Parting Shots WoF is doing very well Weathered federal downturn Partnerships intact Could use some attention.

38. Parting Shots WoF is doing very well Weathered federal downturn Partnerships intact Could use some attention. All partners need to help with this!

39. Parting Shots WoF is doing very well Weathered federal downturn Partnerships intact Could use some attention. All partners need to help with this! New funding possible if we work together

40. Parting Shots WoF is doing very well Weathered federal downturn Partnerships intact Could use some attention. All partners need to help with this! New funding possible if we work together Biggest threat is ourselves

41. The hardest challenge in creating new technology is not eliminating uncertainty in advance but adapting to it as the work uncovers it. Clay Shirky, Professor of New Media New York University In “The key to successful tech management”