1. Proactive Management of Project Schedule Shimon Zeierman Rafael Advanced Systems Ltd.

2. Background The Critical Chain Method which is based on the Theory of Constraints (TOC) offers us the Project Buffer – A powerful schedule management tool which is able to help us to complete product design or manufacture while meeting schedule and budget goals, in a risky and uncertain environment. Implementation of the method in the planning and execution phases faces some difficulties: Adding a buffer into the work plan while keeping deadlines intact creates a “non-realistic” schedule which loses team confidence, Choosing a Buffer smaller than needed as a “compromise” between the need for buffer and the available time nullifies its benefits, Consuming buffer time in early stages further reduces confidence in the tool, The Red/Yellow/Green method to manage buffer penetration is hard to implement, it is very difficult to return the buffer to a green state after it has gone red, There is no general directive on how to change the buffer with time, which is especially crucial towards the end of the project.

3. Uncertainties and Risks in Development and Production Technical: Is the design feasible at all? Will we achieve performance goals promised? Programmatic: Uncertainties in time to be allocated to each task. Uncertainties in availability of resources on time (workers, labs etc.). Budgetary: Uncertainty in the effort needed to accomplish each task and task. Uncertainty in the stability of currency exchange rates or market price. Main issue: The information related to uncertainties, risks and their consequences is of a probabilistic nature It may happen that part of the risks will materialize while others will not. Risks will materialize in various and unplanned instances during project life span.

4. Principles suggested: Incorporating a single project buffer into project schedule. The buffer represents an allocation of time to cope with the effect of all uncertainties and risks in the project. Incorporating a single buffer compensates for the lack of reliable and detailed information about the variance of each task of the project plan. The use of a single buffer enables the project planner to draw a border line between the basic logical plan of the project and the possible impact of risks and uncertainties materialization. Method suggested: Use a single buffer

5. Activity DescriptionWho JanuaryFebruaryMarch 7142128411182541118 Tasks Goal: Finish on Mar-15 - Prepare Test Specimen --Purchase material --Prepare specimen --Prepare Test Plan --Test in Field -- Analyze and Summarize - Project Buffer - Plan and Perform Tests 30% Project Buffer Team A Team B Both Logical Plan Risk Buffer

6. Allocate time for the whole project, from start (ARO) to finish. Allocate time buffer in proportion to the level of all risks and uncertainties, technical, programmatic and budgetary. Recommended value, in case of lack of further information: 20% of project time frame. But not less than 10% (in order to be able to utilize the benefits of the buffer) When risk and uncertainty level is high, consider a buffer of up to 40%-50%. Allocate time for each of the project’s tasks. Expect objections from staff! Discuss reservations made by those who carry out the task due to the short time allocated to their task. Look for resolution, new and creative solutions which enable shortening execution time (with no penalty to project quality or cost). Solutions will be mainly found by separation of variables, parallelizing activities and methodological risk analysis. The schedule should conform to project goal, even in those cases where there was no resolution to reservations – While working on the project, more opportunities and new ideas will be available to the planner. Schedule planning – The proactive way

7. Reaction to slip in schedule: Ineffective reactions: Ineffective reactions: Delay schedule “Linearly” penetrate into time buffer Shorten buffer time Proactive management of schedule

8. Activity DescriptionWho JanuaryFebruaryMarch 7142128411182541118 Tasks Goal: Finish on Mar-15 - Prepare Test Specimen --Purchase material --Prepare specimen --Prepare Test Plan --Test in Field -- Analyze and Summarize - Project Buffer - Plan and Perform Tests Team A Team B Both 30% Project Buffer Delay Schedule 30% Project Buffer Penetrate buffer 15% PB Shorten Buffer

9. Reaction to slip in schedule: Ineffective reactions: Ineffective reactions: Delay schedule “Linearly” penetrate into time buffer Shorten buffer time Effective reactions: Proactive management of schedule and buffer Effective reactions: Proactive management of schedule and buffer Reschedule project keeping planned finish date intact Reschedule project keeping planned finish date intact Keep buffer size constant in terms of percentage out of time remaining from time-now till project finish Keep buffer size constant in terms of percentage out of time remaining from time-now till project finish Shorten time allocated for activities left and resolve reservations made by those who carry our the task Shorten time allocated for activities left and resolve reservations made by those who carry our the task Shortening buffer time is permitted only if risks are lowered and uncertainty level is reduced. Shortening buffer time is permitted only if risks are lowered and uncertainty level is reduced. Proactive management of schedule

10. Activity DescriptionWho JanuaryFebruaryMarch 7142128411182541118 Tasks Goal: Finish on Mar-15 - Prepare Test Specimen --Purchase material --Prepare specimen --Prepare Test Plan --Test in Field -- Analyze and Summarize - Project Buffer - Plan and Perform Tests Team A Team B Both 30% Project Buffer 30% Proj Buffer No change in %Buffer No change in logic. Task shorten Project replanned from time- now till finish Resolve reservations

11. Case Study

12. Activity DescriptionWho JanuaryFebruaryMarch 7142128411182541118 Meetings Tasks Kick Off Goal: Finish on Mar-15 - Samples Preparation --Supply Material to Site B --Make Samples --Preliminary Test Plan --Final Test Plan --Cycle I (Lab Test) --Test Results Evaluation --Cycle II (Lab & Field Test) -Testing Team A Team B Both Team B

13. Activity DescriptionWho JanuaryFebruaryMarch 7142128411182541118 Meetings Tasks Kick Off Goal: Finish on Mar-15 - Samples Preparation --Supply Material to Site B --Make Samples --Preliminary Test Plan --Final Test Plan --Cycle I (Lab Test) --Test Results Evaluation --Cycle II (Lab & Field Test) --Project Buffer -Testing Status FPR Status 40% Project Buffer Team A Team B Both Team B

14. Activity DescriptionWho JanuaryFebruaryMarch 7142128411182541118 Meetings Tasks Kick Off Goal: Finish on Mar-15 - Samples Preparation --Supply Material to Site B --Make Samples --Preliminary Test Plan --Final Test Plan --Cycle I (Lab Test) --Test Results Evaluation --Cycle II (Lab & Field Test) --Project Buffer -Testing Status FPR Status Jan14Jan27 40% Project Buffer Team A Team B Both Team B

15. Activity DescriptionWho JanuaryFebruaryMarch 7142128411182541118 Meetings Tasks Kick Off Goal: Finish on Mar-15 - Samples Preparation --Supply Material to Site B --Make Samples --Preliminary Test Plan --Final Test Plan --Cycle I (Lab Test) --Test Results Evaluation --Cycle II (Lab & Field Test) --Project Buffer -Testing Status FPR Status Jan27 Team A Team B Both Team B 40% Project Buffer Buffer size kept 40% of time remained to project finish Time allocated for Team B was reduced by half Finish date doesn’t change In spite of delay in raw material supply

16. Activity DescriptionWho JanuaryFebruaryMarch 7142128411182541118 Meetings Tasks Kick Off Goal: Finish on Mar-15 - Samples Preparation --Supply Material to Site B --Make Samples --Preliminary Test Plan --Final Test Plan --Cycle I (Lab Test) --Test Results Evaluation --Cycle II (Lab & Field Test) --Project Buffer -Testing Team A Team B Both Team B Status FPR Status Jan27 40% Project Buffer Ideas raised: Adding a second lab (contact with an external lab has been initiated) Re-check and shorten test plan (third of test found not necessary)

17. Activity DescriptionWho JanuaryFebruaryMarch 7142128411182541118 Meetings Tasks Kick Off Goal: Finish on Mar-15 - Samples Preparation --Supply Material to Site B --Make Samples --Preliminary Test Plan --Final Test Plan --Cycle I (Lab Test) --Test Results Evaluation --Cycle II (Lab & Field Test) --Project Buffer -Testing Team A Team B Both Team B Status FPR Status Jan27 40% Project Buffer Feb 8 Unexpected delay while clearing from customs. Shipment arrive Feb 14 Uncertainties have their own life…

18. Activity DescriptionWho JanuaryFebruaryMarch 7142128411182541118 Meetings Tasks Kick Off Goal: Finish on Mar-15 - Samples Preparation --Supply Material to Site B --Make Samples --Preliminary Test Plan --Final Test Plan --Cycle I (Lab Test) --Test Results Evaluation --Cycle II (Lab & Field Test) --Project Buffer -Testing Team A Team B Both Team B Status FPR Status 40% Project Buffer Feb 8 150Kg 25% PB Feb 14

19. Activity DescriptionWho JanuaryFebruaryMarch 7142128411182541118 Meetings Tasks Kick Off Goal: Finish on Mar-15 - Samples Preparation --Supply Material to Site B --Make Samples --Preliminary Test Plan --Final Test Plan --Cycle I (Lab Test) --Test Results Evaluation --Cycle II (Lab & Field Test) --Project Buffer -Testing Team A Team B Both Team B Status FPR Status 150Kg 25% PB Feb 14 Finish date doesn’t change In spite of delays accumulated till now Risk level dropped, buffer size reduced to 25% of time to project finish

20. Further risks and uncertainties were not materialized, test results were obtained a few days before required date. Further risks and uncertainties were not materialized, test results were obtained a few days before required date. Managing task by Team A was done using classical methods and did not meet required schedule. Managing task by Team A was done using classical methods and did not meet required schedule. Proactive management by Team B created the atmosphere suitable for a teamwork aimed at getting solutions to the various problems as well as the delays created by the task taken care of by Team A. Proactive management by Team B created the atmosphere suitable for a teamwork aimed at getting solutions to the various problems as well as the delays created by the task taken care of by Team A. Epilogue

21. A proactive approach to the planning and controlling of projects using a single project buffer was presented. A proactive approach to the planning and controlling of projects using a single project buffer was presented. A key to this approach is keeping the buffer at the same level in terms of percentage of time that remains until project finishes, and in accordance to the remaining risk and uncertainty level. A key to this approach is keeping the buffer at the same level in terms of percentage of time that remains until project finishes, and in accordance to the remaining risk and uncertainty level. The approach relies on further important keys for success: The approach relies on further important keys for success: Building a simple and stable logic plan for the project Building a simple and stable logic plan for the project Constant search for solutions for the time constraint and lack of resources. Constant search for solutions for the time constraint and lack of resources. Team work and cooperation Team work and cooperation Summary

22. Thank You