1. Getting Back on Offense: What’s Gone Wrong and What Social Workers (and other sane people) Can Do About It Council on Social Work Education Annual Meeting Tampa, Fl Jared Bernstein CBPP Bernstein@cbpp.org

2. What I’d like to cover this AM… Draw a circle around “what’s wrong.” Mine is economy, poverty, inequality, jobs, living standards Present evidence of the problem Diagnosis Prescription That’s where peeps like me usually stop… But clearly, that hasn’t worked. These problems are not really getting much better (some cyclical improvement; little structural improvement)

3. The economic problem facing social workers… …is, of course, the economic problem facing their clients. Along with their clients’ communities, institutions, and systems with which they interact, most notably, the economic system. Intergeneration barriers to upward mobility Source: Reeves, Sawhill (2014)

4. What are these barriers? Educational opportunity Poverty and the lack of investment in less advantaged children Discrimination (race, gender, orientation, incarceration) The economic problem, part 1: disconnect between economic growth and the quantity and quality of jobs The economic (policy) problem, part 2: work as a pathway out of poverty; a venerable goal, but you don’t get a good job just by wanting a good job

5. 4.2X 6.7X Sources: Smeeding, 2014 (education); Duncan, Murnane, 2014 (enrichment, 2012 $’s)

6. Tim Smeeding (2014) on Incarceration Impacts 7 million adults are in the “correctional population” (incarcerated in prison or jail, or are on parole or probation) Jobless rate of ex-incarcerated is at least 50 percent and higher in many places 2/3 of ex-incarcerated who start in bottom earnings quintile in 1986 still there in 2006 51 percent of men & 61 percent of women who are in the corrections systems have kids Amongst black children, parental incarceration is 25 percent in the 1990 cohort 62 percent of black children whose parents have not completed HS have experienced parental imprisonment vs 15 percent of whites

7. The economic problem, part 1 Sources: BEA, BLS, Sentier Research

8. The economic “problem,” part 2 Me: To say “we fought the war on poverty and lost” is to reveal your contempt for facts. Lifted from (alt) poverty: EITC/CTC: 9.4m, including 5m kids SNAP: 4.8m, 2.1m kids Social Security: 17m (!) elderlies (took alt pov rate from 52.6% (!) to 14.6%)

9. Diagnosis/Prescription Diagnosis Inequality, wage stagnation Barriers to upward mobility Inadequate labor market opportunities where anti-poverty policy is predicated on such opportunities Prescription Higher minimum wages and other labor standards, work supports Direct job creation (long-term unemployment, criminal recs) Help overcoming education barriers, for pre-K to college completion Apprenticeships, OJT Other full employment imperatives: fiscal, monetary, trade

10. But you can’t stop there! Must deal with fundamental systemic breakdown Dysfunctional Congress How much slack can states pick up? I’ve talked about economic problem, but to solve that, we need to worry about political and social problems. Political Diminished faith in gov’t Increased partisanship Which side does this help? YOYOs vs. WITTs Why less interdependence and what can be done about it?

11. 20141994 Source: http://www.people-press.org/2014/06/12/section-1-growing-ideological-consistency/#interactive

12. YOYO vs. WITT: Oregon Gov. John Kitzhaber

13. Interdependent Utility Functions: an implicit assumption of social work? U_1=f(income, wealth, health, etc…) U_2=f(my income, my wealth, my health…your inc, your wealth, etc.) Especially as regards poor/disadvantaged, very hard to help if U_1>U_2 Thurow: income distribution as a public good; Reeves: opportunity as a public good. People don’t like YOYO, so some support for U_2 But want to know “just who am I in this together with?”

14. What will break the fever? Facts…no, really!! (Gov Brownback, e.g.) Well functioning gov’t (Obamacare…no, really!!) Recognition of the costs of gridlock Learning from states that made investments in their people/economies Learning from people who are on the front lines (or supporting or teaching the front lines) THAT WOULD BE YOU!