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1 Presented by Empower IT Heidelberg, Germany August 2008 Overview of the European Market Basket.

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Presentation on theme: "1 Presented by Empower IT Heidelberg, Germany August 2008 Overview of the European Market Basket."— Presentation transcript:

1 1 Presented by Empower IT Heidelberg, Germany August 2008 Overview of the European Market Basket

2 2 “Here are the groceries Mom. Now can I go out and play?”

3 3 Let’s begin by taking a look at Europe's Performance vs ConUS

4 4 Source: American Logistics Association Site Total DeCA Sales ConUS vs Europe Five-Year Trend (FY 2002 – 2007) DeCA Sales FY07 vs FY03 Europe: +5.3% ConUS: +9.7% Despite store closures, Europe has sustained 5.3% growth in the past 5 years

5 5 Total number of stores open by year Store count includes CDCs and Nexmarts DeCA Store Count The majority of store closures during the past 6 years has occurred in Europe Source: DeCA Headquarters In the European market there are currently 47 stores.

6 6 Europe Average Dollar Sales per Store …and average sales per store in Europe have increased dramatically Source: DeCA Headquarters & ALA Site

7 7 (Millions) Sales Performance ConUS vs Europe 52-Week Trends Source: TotCat 52 weeks ending 6/07/08 (Millions) Europe+0.8%-4.3% ConUS+4.8%-0.3% $ % Chg Pkg % Chg 52 Wk Trend vs YAG 4 Wk Pd. Ending:

8 8 Sales Performance 25% (12) of the European stores are posting greater than 10% growth over yago! ConUS is showing similar trends in both dollar and package growth in their top stores.

9 9 Store Performance Europe Store Ranking Source: TotCat 52 weeks ending 6/07/08 Top six stores accounted for 40% of Europe dollar volume Europe Store Ranking based on Dollar Volume

10 10 Category Performance Power categories in Europe show dramatically different shopping patterns from U.S. military shoppers. They shop the commissary for a taste of home…something to snack on, a can of soda, American chicken, and fish. They stock up for baby needs and basic household items.

11 11 Top Commodities in Europe Dollar Volume (millions) Commodity Ranking Europe Overview Source: TotCat 52 weeks ending 6/07/08

12 12 $ Shr Index To ConUS Baby Products are twice as developed in Europe than in ConUS Tobacco indexes only 47 compared to ConUS Commodity Performance Europe Overview Source: TotCat 52 weeks ending 6/07/08 $ % Chg EuropeConUS

13 13 Top three categories are Beverages followed by Salty Snacks Category Performance Top 15 Categories by Dollars Source: TotCat 52 weeks ending 6/07/08

14 14 An astounding 9.4% of European dollar sales comes from only 50 SKUs! In the ConUS market, the top 50 best selling items account for only 4.4% of all ConUS dollar volume.

15 15 Most of the top European stores carry close to the full assortment of overall top items Source: Empower IT, 52 Weeks End Dec 2007 Most stores have more than 9% of their sales in the top 50 items. Only Lakenheath shows a considerably lower % of volume generated by the top items. Store Performance Assortment

16 16 Top 25 European Items - Dollars Source: Empower IT, 52 Weeks End Dec 2007 Of the top 50 items… 9 Soda 5 Milk 5 Bread 5 Frz Chicken 4 Water 3 Salty Snacks 3 Infant Nutritionals 3 Chill Juice 2 Cigarettes 2 Charcoal 2 Bacon 1 Toilet Paper 1 Sour Cream 1 Frz Fish 1 Energy Drink 1 Cheese 1 Butter These 25 items generate 6.4% of all Europe dollar volume The top 50 generate 9.3% Store Performance Dollar Ranking

17 17 Source: Empower IT, 52 Weeks End Dec 2007 Top 25 European Items - Packages Store Performance Package Ranking

18 18 Key Category Performance Indicators Let’s examine Key Category Performance Indicators in the European Power Categories Carbonated Beverages Water & New Age Beverages Canned Bottled Juices Salty Snacks RTE Cereal Confectionery Biscuits Infant/Nutritional Diapers

19 19 Carbonated Beverages Category Ranking Europe - #1 Category Development within Top 20 Stores

20 20 Carbonated Beverages Carb Bev $ sales in Europe -6.0% 52 wks, with ConUS trends down substantially less at -2.4%. The weak U.S. dollar has been a key driver for dollar volume losses, as U.S. bottled product average price has fallen substantially compared to Foreign bottled competitive product. With Average price down more than 11% across the category, Package sales are growing at a rapid pace, up 5.6% in 52-wk and +14.4% YTD. These trends are far outperforming the U.S. market, where package sales remain in negative growth. Diet Sodas have outperformed Regular Calorie items, up +11.7% 52-wk, compared to only +2.7% for regular calorie. YTD both Diet and Regular segments have growth of greater than 12%. Category Quick Facts:

21 21 Carbonated Beverages The top 20 selling UPCs account for more than 63% of total category sales.

22 22 Many stores were able to post Dollar and Package growth for the year, outpacing Total Europe trends Carbonated Beverages

23 23 Water & New Age Beverages Category Ranking Europe - #2 Category Development within Top 20 Stores

24 24 Category Quick Facts: Water & New Age Beverages TTL category sales for Europe are up +3.3% and for ConUS +7.6%, current 52-wk. YTD category growth in Europe is explosive at +13.3%. TTL Category growth is being driven by one key segment -- Energy Drinks, which have increased in sales by 141% YTD and share + 15 pts vs yago to 28.4% of total category sales. Currently Energy Drinks hold a 24% share of the distribution points among all New Age Beverages, yet account for 50% of all New Age Beverage sales. Juice Based NAB and RTD Teas are very heavy in distribution share ( 19.5 and 41% respectively) while accounting for only 7% and 28% of NAB sales. Is your store taking full advantage of the growth surge in Energy Drinks? Approximately 20% of total category $ volume is driven by promotion. For the PET water segment, that number jumps to almost 30%. However in the last 52-week promoted volume in PET water was down -16% dollars and -32.5% packages. Have fewer water promotions been a possible source of lost revenue opportunity for stores? PET Water remains one of the strongest growth categories in the ConUS market and is a key category for Europe. U.S. sales grew 6% last year, while Europe sales were down -9.6%. Flavored/Enhanced waters are driving growth in the U.S., but in Europe have not been as well received. Flavored Enhanced in Europe has 23% of category sales, but 71% of category distribution points and sales are down -13%. On the other hand, purified water products have 48% of category sales in Europe, but only 18% of distribution points and sales are down far less at -5%. Water products in some regions are likely to be much more “locally” driven. Strong European brands such as Vera, San Benedetto, and Culligan may not be reflected in the POS sales for DeCA, and likely explain low index for stores such as Naples.

25 25 Opportunities abound for growth in Water; Energy drinks perform well in most all stores. Few stores lack overall category growth. Water & New Age Beverages

26 26 Canned/Bottled Juice Drinks Category Ranking Europe - #3 Category Development within Top 20 Stores

27 27 Category Quick Facts: The largest segment in shelf stable juices and drinks is Juice Blends at 35%, followed by Sports Drinks at 22.3% of dollar sales. Sports Drinks are driving strong dollar and package growth in the category in the ConUS market (+12% and +46%). Again, the weak U.S. dollar has hampered dollar growth, but package sales for Europe are up 19.2% and share of sales in the category are up +3.9 pts. The launch of new Sports drinks such as Gatorade G2 and Accelerade appear to have brought new buyers into the segment. Both Juice Blends and Apple Juice show dollar increases of 3%, due a great deal to rising average product prices as production/food prices climb. Package sales fell -2.5% and -7% respectively. These trends follow closely the trends in the ConUS market. Promotion is extremely important to the success of the shelf stable juice category, accounting for more than 30% of category dollar volume and 37% of package volume. For Sports Drinks, the number is even greater, at 35% of dollar volume and 47% of package sales. Promoted dollars in Sports Drinks are up 39% YTD in 2008. Canned/Bottled Juice Drinks

28 28 Stores with heavily declining category sales are consistently showing strong declines in Sports Drinks Canned/Bottled Juice Drinks

29 29 Salty Snacks Category Ranking Europe - #4 Category Development within Top 20 Stores

30 30 Category Quick Facts: Salty Snacks dollar volume in Europe fell -0.6% and package sales fell -2.3% for curr 52- wk. ConUS sales grew +5.6% dollars and package sales are flat. Potato Chips segment showed very positive growth, increasing in both dollars +2.3% and packages +2.2%, but the highest growth rates have come from the Multi-Grain segment ( +14.3% dollars and +19.1% packages), as patrons seek healthier snack alternatives. Processed Chips have also contributed heavily to dollar volume gains ( +11.6% ), but package sales remain down -3.5% for the segment. Salty Snacks

31 31 A majority of stores outperform Europe in dollar and package trends Salty Snacks

32 32 RTE Cereal Category Ranking Europe - #5 Category Development within Top 20 Stores

33 33 Category Quick Facts: In Europe, Total RTE Cereal is down -2.8% in packages, up +1.8% in dollars. Losses on the Kraft cereals are driving declines, with total Kraft down -17.1% in packages and -3.2% in dollars vs year ago. Also down are Ralston (-14.4% dollars, -14.7% packages) and Malt-O-Meal (-7.3% packages). Trends are similar for all players except Ralston, which is showing strong growth in ConUS. Ralston’s declines are being driven by deletions on a number of SKUs. 37% Of RTE Cereal dollars were sold on promotion during the latest 52-weeks. >% Product Sold on Promotion<% Product Sold on Promotion RAMSTEIN AB, GERMANY (E28)43.1 DEXHEIM, GERMANY (E2H)42.3 BAMBERG, GERMANY (E3E)42.0 VOGELWEH AB, GERMANY (E23)42.0 ANSBACH, GERMANY (E4C)40.8 VILSECK, GERMANY (E41)40.5 INCIRLIK, TURKEY (E5Y)39.0 MANNHEIM, GERMANY (E2T)39.0 BITBURG AB, GERMANY (E2E)38.9 SEMBACH AB, GERMANY (E2Z)38.7 KELLEY BARRACKS, GERMANY (E4Q)26.3 LAJES FIELD, AZORES (E5L)27.6 WUERZBURG, GERMANY (E33)29.3 NEUBRUECKE, GERMANY (E2U)29.5 MINEO, ITALY (E6G)29.6 RAF MENWITH HILL, ENGLAND (E1Q)29.8 RIYADH, SAUDI (E5M)30.3 CAIRO, EGYPT (E5B)30.5 LIVORNO, ITALY (E5J)31.2 NAPLES, ITALY (E5X)31.6 Source: Empower IT, 52-Week P/E July 5, 2008 RTE Cereal

34 34 Among the larger stores, more stores outpaced total Europe performance; however, several of the stores that declined posted significant declines. Source: Empower IT, 52-Week P/E July 5, 2008 RTE Cereal

35 35 Confectionery Category Ranking Europe - #6 Category Development within Top 20 Stores

36 36 Total Confectionery dollars are +6.3% on package growth of +1.3% in Europe. Growth is being driven by Chocolate (+5.9% dollars), Gum (+5.9% dollars), and Non-Chocolate (++12.5% dollars). The only segment posting decline is the very small Mints segment (-20.1% dollars). The Gondola portion of category sales accounts for 65% of total dollar sales and is posting growth of +4.9%. Seasonal sales account for 27% of dollars and are posting growth of +15.2% v. year ago. Front End Confectionery (-8.1% of dollars) is down -7.2% v. year ago. Five Highest Growth and Decline Brands (Actual Dollars): Category Quick Facts: Source: Empower IT, 52-Week P/E July 5, 2008 Confectionery

37 37 Most of the larger stores posted dollar gains – significant losses were seen in only a select few stores Source: Empower IT, 52-Week P/E July 5, 2008 Confectionery

38 38 Biscuits Category Ranking Europe - #8 Category Development within Top 20 Stores

39 39 Category Quick Facts: Pack sales movement is split exactly evenly between Cookies and Crackers in Europe. Pack losses in Cookies (-4.9%) is driving Total Biscuit declines of -2.4%. Cracker pack sales are up nominally (+0.3%). Dollar volume is off very slightly in both segments, resulting in category dollar declines. All manufacturers, except Pepperidge Farm, show pack declines in Europe vs year ago. More than 85% of total category sales are moved by Nabisco and Kellogg’s. Nabisco shows dollar increases of +0.5% while Kellogg’s is down -2.9%. Five Highest Growth and Decline Brands by Segment (Actual Dollars): Source: Empower IT, 52-Week P/E July 5, 2008 Biscuits

40 40 Infant/Toddler Nutritionals Category Ranking Europe - #13 Category Development within Top 20 Stores

41 41 Category Quick Facts: Total Infant/Toddler Nutritionals is down -9.1% in package sales, but down only -0.1% in dollars for the year. Trends show a distinct switch from traditional Milk and Soy Formulas to Mild Milk Based and Specialty Formulas. That said, Milk Formula remains the largest overall segment. Toddler Formula and Toddler Nutrition show strong pack and dollar gains. With space at a premium, it is not surprising that distribution levels on traditional Milk and Soy formulas were reduced; however, given that consumer purchase of Mild Milk Based and Specialty Formulas have not offset those declines, it may be that consumers are not finding their desired formula in the commissary. Source: Empower IT, 52-Week P/E July 5, 2008 Infant/Toddler Nutritionals

42 42 Diapers Category Ranking Europe - #12 Category Development within Top 20 Stores

43 43 Total Diapers/Training Pants is down -6.8% in packages and +5.8% in dollars. Diapers (-8.5% packages), which account for 82% of the dollars and 75% of packages, is driving pack declines and dollar increases (+7.2%). Training pants are down slightly in both packages (-1.3%) and dollars (-0.3%). P&G (-14.3% packagers, +3.1% dollars) is driving the category’s overall pack decline, while Kimberly Clark has posted pack (+2.1%) and dollar (+10.0%) gains. Source: Empower IT, 52-Week P/E June 7, 2008 Diapers Category Quick Facts:

44 44 Differences in Seasonality between ConUS and Europe Seasonality in some highly seasonal categories is slightly off-shifted in Europe. Traditional “summer” categories seem to begin their upward shift much earlier, peak and then fall off before ConUS. With the variance it is important to make sure that product displays are up early (or retained later) and special pricing programs are available for those early adopters.

45 45 C/C/A/S Seasonality Looks Different in Europe, with Increased Sales Lasting Longer into the Spring and Starting Later in the Winter $ SDI—ConUS v. Europe Seasonality Europe Weekly $ Sales Index Source: Empower IT, Inc. 2007 Weekly Sales Cough/Cold/Allergy/Sinus

46 46 While Suncare Presents Much More of a Balanced Bell Curve in ConUS With Peak Sales around Memorial Day, European Suncare Sales are Much More Strongly Concentrated in Mid/Late-April $ SDI—ConUS v. Europe Seasonality Europe Weekly $ Sales Index Source: Empower IT, Inc. 2007 Weekly Sales Suncare

47 47 The High Season for Pest Control Starts Earlier in Europe as Well $ SDI—ConUS v. Europe Seasonality Europe Weekly $ Sales Index Source: Empower IT, Inc. 2007 Weekly Sales Pest Control

48 48 Hot Dogs Show Upward Sales Trends Beginning in March, While ConUS Seasonality Starts in May $ SDI—ConUS v. Europe Seasonality Europe Weekly $ Sales Index Source: Empower IT, Inc. 2007 Weekly Sales Frankfurters

49 49 Great performance in this marketplace, despite store closures. Growth in the past 5 years, dollar sales are up 5.3%. Average sales per store are up to $8.3M. 25% (12) of the stores are posting more than 10% dollar growth The top 50 items in Europe are key, they represent more than 9.3% of the dollar volume. 50% of the new age category sales comes from energy drinks, but only equate to 24% of the distribution points. Water is locally driven by strong European brands such as Vera, San Benedetto, and Culligan and may not be reflected in the sales. This would explain the low index of sales for Naples and various stores in Italy. Key Market Facts

50 50 Off shelf promotions are key for growth in the canned and bottled drinks category. In the salty snack category, potato chips and multi-grain chips are leading the growth. 37% of dollars in the RTE Cereal category is sold off promotion. Confectionery is growing in all segments, with the exception of mints. The gondola represents 65% of the dollar sales of the category. Seasonal candy represents 27% of the category dollar sales and is up more than 15%. In the biscuit category there are two major players; Nabisco and Kellogg’s, which represent more than 85% of the dollar sales. In infant formula and nutritional category, customers have switched from soy based products to mild milk based products. The right SKU assortment is essential. Key Market Facts Continued

51 51 Vielen Dank!


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