1. Sunday, May 17, 2015 Page 1 Investigating “Hider” Theory New Horizons in Search Theory 4 th Workshop

2. Sunday, May 17, 2015 Page 2 Investigating “Hider” Theory Presentations Group 1: Hiding Contraband (WMD) Steve Basile, Jeff Cares, Bill Glenney, Tim Mertens, Frank Tito Group 2: ASW and Other Military Examples Michelle Jarvais, David Jarvis, Rich Katz, Brian McCue, Bill Pruitt

3. Sunday, May 17, 2015 Page 3 Investigating “Hider” Theory Group 1: Hiding Contraband (WMD) Steve Basile, Jeff Cares, Bill Glenney, Tim Mertens, Frank Tito

4. Sunday, May 17, 2015 Page 4 Investigating “Hider” Theory Operational Context General Competitive Context –Hider, Searcher with active strategies –Not necessarily mirror image strategies Forces, Elements Involved (all have some signature) –Organization Policy makers, financiers, scientists, technicians, deliverers, suppliers Communications, contracts, policies, links, social networks, trust, fear, etc. –Resources Could be outwardly benign, particularly in isolation e.g., site, money, raw materials, recipe, etc. Could be virtual, distributed –Process Arrangement of resources and organization to produce contraband –Contraband End product of a process Environmental Considerations –Size of the thing and the area in which it is hidden –Background (ambient noise in the environment) –Backyard (familiarity with background) –Neutral or unrelated activity (affects positively or negatively) –Clutter, evasion, deception, decoy, camouflage GROUP 1: Hiding Contraband

5. Sunday, May 17, 2015 Page 5 Investigating “Hider” Theory Operational Problem Hide what? –Organization, resources, process or contraband –Specifically undeclared WMD Chemical, Biological, Radiological, Nuclear, Explosive Stockpile volume equivalent to a 3-car garage Hide where? –Within a country With exceptions, e.g., resources, people, money can go global Hide why? –Because it is illegal Prevent sanctions Protect sovereignty –Surprise –Obscure scale Ambiguity about intentions, capability, size of arsenal, readiness –Protect stockpile For later use, survivability, prevent theft, sale value, deterrent value –Affect world/regional/local opinion Sympathy for regime if WMD remains hidden Affect political events (e.g., 2004 US election) Support larger political strategy Hide when? –For months or years GROUP 1: Hiding Contraband

6. Sunday, May 17, 2015 Page 6 Investigating “Hider” Theory Major Process Elements What are the major factors that impact hider success? What are the relationships between these major factors? Are any of these substantially greater than the others? GROUP 1: Hiding Contraband

7. Sunday, May 17, 2015 Page 7 Investigating “Hider” Theory Process Diagram PROCESSPROCESS CONTRABAND RESOURCES ORGANIZATION GROUP 1: Hiding Contraband

8. Sunday, May 17, 2015 Page 8 Investigating “Hider” Theory Network Strategy 400 300 200 100 0 00.50.6 Ratio of Buttons to Strings Number of Buttons Connected Kauffman, At Home in the Universe, p.57

9. Sunday, May 17, 2015 Page 9 Investigating “Hider” Theory Insights and Conclusions Many of the parts are in plain sight Links are often the things that are telling –Hider needs “invisible thread” Search for contraband very like ASW –Hider relies on big area/small stockpile Hider relies on knowledge or searcher’s capabilities, location High combinatoric space to hide in –Network of org + resources GROUP 1: Hiding Contraband

10. Sunday, May 17, 2015 Page 10 Investigating “Hider” Theory Group 2: ASW and Other Military Examples Michelle Jarvais, David Jarvis, Rich Katz, Brian McCue, Bill Pruitt

11. Sunday, May 17, 2015 Page 11 Investigating “Hider” Theory GROUP 2: ASW & Military Examples Potential Operational Scenarios Orange ASUW on Blue HVU (Carrier) –Transiting –Flights Operations “Dipping Game” SOF Scenario – Minimize hiding discontinuities (hiders coming from a hider) Submarine vs. submarine example –Searcher who is also a hider –Differences in hiding between nuclear, diesel and AIP subs “The Great Scud Hide” –Any type of mobile missile launchers (TELs, Soviet nuclear trucks) Mine fields SSBN Example –Our mission is to hide

12. Sunday, May 17, 2015 Page 12 Investigating “Hider” Theory GROUP 2: ASW & Military Examples Operational Context: Submarine Attack on Carrier General competitive context –Orange trying to sink Blue Carrier in one of two scenarios, transiting to an operational area and carrier flight operations in a coastal area Forces, elements involved –Orange Subs OIA- Other Information Assets (aircraft to cue subs, etc.) –Blue Carrier (PRIMARY HIDER) - a big ship in a bigger ocean Subs Helicopters Other Information Assets (surface escorts, air, satellites, etc.) Environmental considerations –Water depth, distance from coastline, conditions of the body of water (salinity, temperature, bottom type, etc.)

13. Sunday, May 17, 2015 Page 13 Investigating “Hider” Theory Orange SubOrange OIA Blue Carrier Search & Kill HIDE Cue HIDE Blue Sub HIDE, Search & Kill Search & Kill Cue HIDE Blue Helo HIDE Search & Kill N/A Blue OIA N/A Cue Jamming, spoofing, hacking, cyberwar GROUP 2: ASW & Military Examples Operational Context: Submarine Attack on Carrier

14. Sunday, May 17, 2015 Page 14 Investigating “Hider” Theory GROUP 2: ASW & Military Examples Operational Context: Submarine Attack on Carrier Describe the specific Hider application –Hide what? The PRIMARY HIDER is the Blue Carrier SECONDARY HIDERS include the Orange Sub & Blue Sub –Hide where? Transiting to the area of operations Operating off the coast of a hostile country –Hide why? To provide air operations –Hide when? For duration of transit and of air operations—and return transit

15. Sunday, May 17, 2015 Page 15 Investigating “Hider” Theory Sub on CVSub on Sub Helo on Sub Sub on Sub R ???? V ???? T ???? A ???? P = 1 – e -2RVT/A GROUP 2: ASW & Military Examples Operational Context: Submarine Attack on Carrier – Some Pseudo-Facts

16. Sunday, May 17, 2015 Page 16 Investigating “Hider” Theory GROUP 2: ASW & Military Examples Operational Context: Submarine Attack on Carrier – Some Real Math Is his sub going to find my sub before my sub finds his carrier? Some math: given three exponential processes w/ rates γ1, γ2, and γ3, the probability that event i has happens first is: The γ’s are the various 2RVT/A’s.

17. Sunday, May 17, 2015 Page 17 Investigating “Hider” Theory Major Process Elements Hide How? –What are the major factors that impact hider success? Standoff distance from the shore, farther out you are the better you can hide Predictability of carrier movement, both during transit and during flights operations (like to turn into the wind) –What are the relationships between these major factors? –Are any of these substantially greater than the others? GROUP 2: ASW & Military Examples

18. Sunday, May 17, 2015 Page 18 Investigating “Hider” Theory GROUP 2: ASW & Military Examples Insights and Conclusions The importance of the duality of the searcher/hider –The notion of split personality –Each has its own behavior –However, there are links between the searcher/hider aspects of the personality There is a network of interactions searchers and hiders Local vs. global behavior –Change of behavior based on local interactions What would be the applicability of agent- based models to Hider theory?

19. Sunday, May 17, 2015 Page 19 Investigating “Hider” Theory Alidade Services