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“Consider it Advisable to Launch Attack Force Immediately”[i]: A What if? Investigation and Analysis of the Battle of Midway[i] [ i][ i] Rear Admiral Tamon.

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Presentation on theme: "“Consider it Advisable to Launch Attack Force Immediately”[i]: A What if? Investigation and Analysis of the Battle of Midway[i] [ i][ i] Rear Admiral Tamon."— Presentation transcript:

1 “Consider it Advisable to Launch Attack Force Immediately”[i]: A What if? Investigation and Analysis of the Battle of Midway[i] [ i][ i] Rear Admiral Tamon Yamaguchi, IJN, as quoted by Mitsuo Fuchida and Masatake Okumiya in Midway: The Battle that Doomed Japan (Annapolis, Maryland: Naval Institute Press, 1955), 170.

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4 Base, on average, almost precisely modeled actual outcome

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6 CV-5 SBD (1000lb) Base Model Strike 1 Strike 2 Min Max StDev Avg Min Max StDev Avg Min Max StDev Avg

7 CV-5 TBD Base Model Strike 1 Strike 2 Min Max StDev Avg Min Max StDev Avg Min Max StDev Avg

8 TF16 F4F (FP) Strike 1 Strike 2 Min Max StDev Avg Min Max StDev Avg

9 American Carriers Strike 1 Strike 2 Min Max StDev Avg Min Max StDev Avg

10 Japanese Carriers Base Model Strike 1 Strike 2 Min Max StDev Avg Min Max StDev Avg Min Max StDev Avg

11 Relation between Japanese Carrier dead and Japanese CAP/FP dead (low)

12 Relation between Japanese Carrier dead and Japanese CAP/FP dead (high)

13 Relation between American Fighter Aircraft Dead and Japanese Carrier Dead (High)

14 Relation between American Fighter Aircraft Dead and Japanese Carrier Dead (Low)

15 Endless number of WHAT IFs? -Weather -Personality Conflicts (Fletcher & Spruance) -Radio Transmission Range -Lt. Tomonaga’s death -VT-3’s tardiness -Japanese carrier decks devoid of aircraft -Willingness of American pilots to face almost certain death -Ability of VF-6’s pilots (Thatch weave) -USS Yorktown’s late launch schedule -etc., etc., etc...


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