1. Introduction to Probability

2. Probability Quiz Assign a probability to each event. 1. You will miss a day of school this year. 2. You will get an A in math. 3. A tossed coin will land “tails.” 4. You will gain 10 pounds this year. 5. You will live to be 100 years old. 6. The sun will rise tomorrow.

3. Probability Quiz 7. The next President of the United States will be over 21 years old. 8. A card drawn from a standard deck will be a club. 9. You will take a space trip to the moon. 10. The next baby born in this state will be a girl. 11. You will listen to your iPod today. 12. You have type “D” blood.

4. Definition of Probability The probability of an event is a number between 0 (0%) and 1 (100%) inclusive that indicates the likelihood of the event occurring. The probability of an event is a number between 0 (0%) and 1 (100%) inclusive that indicates the likelihood of the event occurring. 0% 50% 100% impossible certain

5. Probability Game with Sum of Dice Goal: To win the most rolls. Directions: Working with a partner, One player chooses odds while another player chooses evens. One player chooses odds while another player chooses evens. Roll the dice. Sum the faces. Roll the dice. Sum the faces. Record the sum on either the odd or even scorecard. Record the sum on either the odd or even scorecard. Repeat 99 more times. Repeat 99 more times.

6. Definition of Probability The probability of event A occurring is given by number of ways A can occur P(A) = total number of outcomes

7. Probability with Cards P(E) P(~E) P(S) P(vowel) P(second half of alphabet) P(second half or vowel) P(second half and vowel) P(before I and vowel) P(before I or vowel)

8. Probability Game with Sum of Dice Is this game fair? Is this game fair? How many different ways are there to roll the dice? How many different ways are there to roll the dice? How many different ways are there to roll an even number? How many different ways are there to roll an even number? How many different ways are there to roll an odd number? How many different ways are there to roll an odd number?

9. Calculation Probabilities of Sums +123456 1 2 3 4 5 6

10. Calculating Probability P(2)= P(2)= P(3)= P(3)= P(4)= P(4)= P(5)= P(5)= P(6)= P(6)= P(7)= P(7)= P(8)= P(9)= P(10)= P(11)= P(12)=

11. Is this game fair? Circle the different ways to roll even numbers in the chart. Circle the different ways to roll even numbers in the chart. Square the different ways to roll odd numbers in the chart. Square the different ways to roll odd numbers in the chart. How can you determine if this game is fair? How can you determine if this game is fair?

12. Experimental Probability Record the number of times you rolled each of the sums on the tally sheet. Record the number of times you rolled each of the sums on the tally sheet. Using your tally sheet, calculate the probabilities for rolling a sum of 2, 3, 4, 5, 6, 7, 8, 9, 10, 11, 12 Using your tally sheet, calculate the probabilities for rolling a sum of 2, 3, 4, 5, 6, 7, 8, 9, 10, 11, 12 Create a bar graph of the different sums Create a bar graph of the different sums How can you determine if this game is fair? How can you determine if this game is fair?

13. Probability Game with Product of Dice Goal: To win the most rolls. Directions: Working with a partner, One player chooses odds while another player chooses evens. One player chooses odds while another player chooses evens. Roll the dice. Calculate the product of the faces. Roll the dice. Calculate the product of the faces. Record the product on either the odd or even scorecard, depending upon the product. Record the product on either the odd or even scorecard, depending upon the product. Repeat 99 more times. Repeat 99 more times.

14. Is this game fair or unfair? If you were even and won, then raise your hand. If you were even and won, then raise your hand. Is this game fair? Is this game fair? Prove that this game is either fair or unfair. Prove that this game is either fair or unfair.

15. Create your own game Working with your partner, create your own game. Working with your partner, create your own game. Explain the strategy you would want to use to win your game using probability. Explain the strategy you would want to use to win your game using probability.