1. 1 Thinking About Crime: Goals for the Near Future Anthony N. Doob Centre of Criminology University of Toronto Canadian Criminal Justice Association Congress: Halifax 29 October 2009

2. 2 The Agenda (Conclusions) Address crime problems where it matters Address crime problems where it matters Don’t focus on the criminal justice system Don’t focus on the criminal justice system Keep ‘recent’ patterns in mind when considering options Keep ‘recent’ patterns in mind when considering options Serious problems with ‘deterrence’ and ‘incapacitation’ models of crime control Serious problems with ‘deterrence’ and ‘incapacitation’ models of crime control Don’t focus solely on ‘early detection’ as the solution Don’t focus solely on ‘early detection’ as the solution Punishment/imprisonment doesn’t explain ‘crime’ Punishment/imprisonment doesn’t explain ‘crime’ Controlling imprisonment Controlling imprisonment Canada’s history Canada’s history Current problems (remand) Current problems (remand) Address real problems Address real problems Sentencing (including conditional release) Sentencing (including conditional release) Think about ‘crime’ and ‘punishment’ separately Think about ‘crime’ and ‘punishment’ separately

3. 3 Start by looking at crime Jurisdictional variation within Canada Jurisdictional variation within Canada No evidence of important increases – though look carefully at variation across provinces/ territories (and cities, and locations within cities?) No evidence of important increases – though look carefully at variation across provinces/ territories (and cities, and locations within cities?) Crime ‘is’ local – neighbourhood effects Crime ‘is’ local – neighbourhood effects Provincial (and more local) variation Provincial (and more local) variation

4. 4

5. 5

6. 6

7. 7 Addressing Crime: Popular Approaches (1) Deterrence by way of harsher sentences Deterrence by way of harsher sentences Studies on changes in sentencing Studies on changes in sentencing Studies on knowledge of relative severity Studies on knowledge of relative severity Impaired driving Impaired driving The new 5 year minimum sentences The new 5 year minimum sentences The logic of the deterrent impact of harsher sentences The logic of the deterrent impact of harsher sentences Thinking about consequences of being punished Thinking about consequences of being punished Perceive reasonable likelihood of apprehension and offend rather than focus on avoiding apprehension Perceive reasonable likelihood of apprehension and offend rather than focus on avoiding apprehension Even if expect ‘normal punishment’ would offend Even if expect ‘normal punishment’ would offend Know about the increase in punishment Know about the increase in punishment Would have offended ‘for lower penalty’ – not for ‘increased’ penalty Would have offended ‘for lower penalty’ – not for ‘increased’ penalty Be careful about ‘testimonials’ from anyone on general or specific deterrence Be careful about ‘testimonials’ from anyone on general or specific deterrence

8. 8 Addressing Crime: Popular Approaches (2) Incapacitation Incapacitation Distribution of crime Distribution of crime Be wary of the assertion ‘majority of crime committed by small portion of people’ Be wary of the assertion ‘majority of crime committed by small portion of people’ Only those apprehended Only those apprehended Always retrospective assertions Always retrospective assertions Intervention in the lives of ‘at risk’ youths Intervention in the lives of ‘at risk’ youths problem of identifying problem of identifying crime is broadly distributed crime is broadly distributed focus of policy vs. work on the individual focus of policy vs. work on the individual analogy with disease: prevention vs. treatment analogy with disease: prevention vs. treatment Could these account for the patterns of crime in the past 20 years?

9. 9 The public policy debate on addressing crime “Tough or not” “Tough or not” Inherently useless debate Inherently useless debate Not driven by facts Not driven by facts Would never tolerate it in areas like health Would never tolerate it in areas like health Rarely deals with empirical realities Rarely deals with empirical realities Almost never deals with ‘opportunity costs’ Almost never deals with ‘opportunity costs’ Avoids Avoids Real problems of crime and crime prevention Real problems of crime and crime prevention Real debates/ issues (e.g., opportunity costs) Real debates/ issues (e.g., opportunity costs)

10. 10 Looking at “punishment” in the context of “crime” Comparisons (on crime and punishment) Comparisons (on crime and punishment) Not ‘ideal’ sophisticated research Not ‘ideal’ sophisticated research Helps put assertions in context Helps put assertions in context

11. 11

12. 12

13. 13

14. 14

15. 15

16. 16

17. 17

18. 18

19. 19 What does “stability” mean? Types of prisoners (sentenced, remand) Types of prisoners (sentenced, remand) Distribution of prisoners across jurisdictions (provinces/ territories) Distribution of prisoners across jurisdictions (provinces/ territories) Relative number of prisoners in provincial and federal institutions Relative number of prisoners in provincial and federal institutions Trends and provincial policies Trends and provincial policies

20. 20

21. 21

22. 22

23. 23

24. 24

25. 25 2006 Platform (Federal Conservatives) “Stand up for Canada… “Stand up for Security” “A Conservative government will protect our communities from crime by insisting on tougher sentences for serious and repeat crime and by tightening parole…. “A Conservative government will protect our communities from crime by insisting on tougher sentences for serious and repeat crime and by tightening parole…. “A Conservative government will “A Conservative government will Introduce mandatory minimum prison sentences for… weapons offences…. Introduce mandatory minimum prison sentences for… weapons offences…. End conditional sentences for serious crimes… End conditional sentences for serious crimes… Work for a constitutional amendment to forbid prisoners in federal institutions from voting in elections. Work for a constitutional amendment to forbid prisoners in federal institutions from voting in elections. [and 11 other items in the area of crime] [and 11 other items in the area of crime]

26. 26 Themes in Government Press Releases Related to Specific Bills (2006-7 – 39 th Parliament, 1 st Session) “Our new government has made safe streets and communities a key priority…(C-9) “Our new government has made safe streets and communities a key priority…(C-9) “We will restore confidence… and make our streets safer…” (C- 10) “We will restore confidence… and make our streets safer…” (C- 10) “It is time to implement effective preventative measures to safeguard communities..” (C-27) “It is time to implement effective preventative measures to safeguard communities..” (C-27) “Protecting our children and youth from sexual exploitation is a key priority….” (C-22) “Protecting our children and youth from sexual exploitation is a key priority….” (C-22) “Strengthening sentencing measures… prohibiting [conditional sentences] for those convicted of impaired driving causing…(C- 23) “Strengthening sentencing measures… prohibiting [conditional sentences] for those convicted of impaired driving causing…(C- 23) “Protecting Canadians must be the first priority of our bail system… (C-35) “Protecting Canadians must be the first priority of our bail system… (C-35)

27. 27 Federal Crime Legislation, 2 nd Session, 39 th Parliament [October 2007 to September 2008] Tough on Crime Tough on Crime C-2: “Tackling Violent Crime Bill” (Mandatory Minimum sentences, age of consent, drug impaired driving, bail, dang. offenders) – Royal Assent C-2: “Tackling Violent Crime Bill” (Mandatory Minimum sentences, age of consent, drug impaired driving, bail, dang. offenders) – Royal Assent C-25: Youth Criminal Justice Act: Deterrence and Denunciation; Bail. C-25: Youth Criminal Justice Act: Deterrence and Denunciation; Bail. C-26: Drug: Mandatory Minimums C-26: Drug: Mandatory Minimums

28. 28 C-2: Mandatory Minimum Press release: “The use of a firearm in committing a serious offence will be subject to a significant sentence. If, for example, an offence is gang related, or if a restricted or prohibited firearm such as a handgun is used, the minimum penalty will be Press release: “The use of a firearm in committing a serious offence will be subject to a significant sentence. If, for example, an offence is gang related, or if a restricted or prohibited firearm such as a handgun is used, the minimum penalty will be 5 years on a first offence….” 5 years on a first offence….” No mention No mention Current 4 year minimum Current 4 year minimum Absence of change for rifles, shotguns Absence of change for rifles, shotguns

29. 29 Conservative Platform, October 2008 “Protecting the safety & security of Canadians” Prevent gangs Prevent gangs Responsibility & Rehabilitation for YOs – deterrence based sentencing Responsibility & Rehabilitation for YOs – deterrence based sentencing Replace automatic release with earned parole Replace automatic release with earned parole Ending House Arrest for Serious Crimes Ending House Arrest for Serious Crimes Eliminating the ‘Faint hope’ clause Eliminating the ‘Faint hope’ clause Getting tough with gangs and org. crime Getting tough with gangs and org. crime Allowing Canadian victims to sue terrorists Allowing Canadian victims to sue terrorists Mandatory minimums on drug offences Mandatory minimums on drug offences Protecting pregnant women against violence Protecting pregnant women against violence Tougher penalties for Impaired – death Tougher penalties for Impaired – death End ineffective long-gun registry End ineffective long-gun registry All sex offenders in national registry, DNA sampling, All sex offenders in national registry, DNA sampling,

30. 30 Will these make us safe? Empirical evidence: “Deterrence based sentencing” “Deterrence based sentencing” Controlled re-entry of prisoners Controlled re-entry of prisoners Harsher sentences Harsher sentences Mandatory minimums Mandatory minimums Registration (DNA, Sex offender registries) Registration (DNA, Sex offender registries)

31. 31 Final Example: C-25 “Truth in Sentencing Act” (2009) Government position: 1 day credit off sentence for each day in presentence custody Government position: 1 day credit off sentence for each day in presentence custody Justice Minister on the need to pass this bill: “I’m just telling them to fight crime in this country.” Justice Minister on the need to pass this bill: “I’m just telling them to fight crime in this country.” Issue Issue Fighting crime Fighting crime Increasing punitiveness Increasing punitiveness Reflecting conditions of imprisonment Reflecting conditions of imprisonment Equity (Equivalence of pre- and post-sentence time Equity (Equivalence of pre- and post-sentence time

32. 32 Making ‘time’ equivalent Typical 90 day sentence Typical 90 day sentence 30 days of remission 30 days of remission Serve 60 days of a 90 day sentence Serve 60 days of a 90 day sentence Credit for time served in sentenced custody: 1.5 days for each day served Credit for time served in sentenced custody: 1.5 days for each day served 60 days in prison x 1.5 = 90 days sentence Imagine a prisoner ‘deserving’ a 90 day sentence who has spent 60 days in pretrial detention. Imagine a prisoner ‘deserving’ a 90 day sentence who has spent 60 days in pretrial detention. 60 days in pretrial detention x 1.5 = 90 days 60 days in pretrial detention x 1.5 = 90 days “Conditions” muddy the issue “Conditions” muddy the issue

33. 33 Ultimate problem raised by C-25 Meaning of a sentence of imprisonment Meaning of a sentence of imprisonment Time served (in reality) - approximately 1/3 to 2/3 (or in rare cases 100%) Time served (in reality) - approximately 1/3 to 2/3 (or in rare cases 100%) Gradual release/ re-entry Gradual release/ re-entry Most to those least in need Most to those least in need Discretionary release almost ‘requires’ risk averse decisions Discretionary release almost ‘requires’ risk averse decisions Contrast with YCJA Contrast with YCJA

34. 34 Conclusion Crime – serious problem not amenable to ‘one-off’ solutions Crime – serious problem not amenable to ‘one-off’ solutions General social (e.g., schools) policies General social (e.g., schools) policies Don’t focus on ‘crime prevention’ programs alone Don’t focus on ‘crime prevention’ programs alone Don’t focus on criminal justice system Don’t focus on criminal justice system Punishment and Imprisonment Punishment and Imprisonment Incoherent set of principles (e.g., sentencing and conditional release Incoherent set of principles (e.g., sentencing and conditional release Parliament appears not to care about fair, predictable, coherent punishment system Parliament appears not to care about fair, predictable, coherent punishment system Punishment (e.g., imprisonment rate) is under policy control Punishment (e.g., imprisonment rate) is under policy control Not simply a case of harsh or lenient, tough or soft on crime. Not simply a case of harsh or lenient, tough or soft on crime. Issue: Coherent policy Issue: Coherent policy Left off the political agenda: Doing something about crime Left off the political agenda: Doing something about crime

35. 35 End