1. Curso de Lagunas Costeras Alice Newton Universidad de Algarve, Portugal Universidad EAFIT, Abril 8-23, 2008

2. 22 Abril ~ Cambio global y las lagunas costeras. ~ Escenarios futuros

3. Cambio Global y las lagunas costeras

4. Coastal zones and lagoons play a key role in Earth System functioning Provide a significant contribution to the life support systems of most societies. Goods and services derived from coastal systems depend strongly on multiple trans-boundary interactions with the land, atmosphere, open ocean and sea bottom. Human habitation, food production, growing tourism and transportation accelerate the exploitation of the coastal landscape and resources. Coastal lagoons and Earth System Science

5. Global change and coastal lagoons ~ Changes in ecosystem function and biodiversity ~ Changes in biogeochemical cycles ~ Changes in sea level and morphological modifications ~ Changes in sediment supply and erosion ~ Changes in population, urbanization and tourism ~ Changes in use of lagoons: salt and fisheries, aquaculture ~ Changes in economy and ecosystem services

6. Coastal lagoons are fragile due to direct water draining form highly inhabited areas, their shallowness and low water volume to surface ratio. As a consequence there is a high probability that among marine ecosystems coastal lagoons will be the first to react to consequences of changes in climatic trends (Esenreich, 2005). Climate Change and the European Water Dimension A Report to the European Water Directors 2005 Lagoons are sentinel systems

7. Monitoring and data sets ~ Long time-series of data ~ Historical data sets ~ Rare but valuable ~ Useful in hindcast scenarios ~ Heterogeneous meta-data remains problem ~ Accessibility issues

8. 1636 Ringkøbing Fjord, North Sea, Dk 1636

9. 1768 Ringkøbing Fjord, North Sea, Dk 1768

10. Nymindegab, Dk

11. Vulnerability and risk ~ ~ sea-level change ~ ~ coastal erosion ~ ~ storms ~ ~ tsunamis Vulnerability maps

12. Vulnerable and valuable ecosystems Lagoons are valuable ecosystems, provide valuable ecosystem services and support valuable activities such as tourism, aquaculture and fisheries. Lagoons throughout the latitudes are subject to multiple pressures

13. Lagoons are very vulnerable to global, natural and societal changes In particular: ~ Erosion-deposition ~ Sea-level change ~ Changes in the water and biogeochemical cycles ~ Human settlement and exploitation of natural resources

14. Coastal lagoons are vulnerable systems High population density (>60/km 2 ) High cropland use (>10%) Global typology (polar regions cropped)

15. Potential Vulnerability Level (PVL) UnitsLow Moderat e High Very High Score 3210 Water Residence Time Days <11-77-15>15 Net Ecosystem Metabolism mol m -2 y -1 >55-00-(-5)< -5 Granulometry - SandSand-siltSilt-clayclay Sedimentary Organic Matter % dw < 11-55-10>10 Sedimentary C:N ratio - >2010-205-10<5 Sedimentary Reactive Iron µmol cm -3 >200100-20050-100<50 Sedimentary AVS µmol cm -3 <5050-100100-150>150 Sedimentary carbonates % dw >4020-405-20<5

16. Venice lagoon is the best known case study of sea level rise Flooding of Piazza San Marco

17. ~ Sea level trend at Trieste (open) and Venice (green), 1896-1996. Source: Carbognin L, CNR, Venice, Italy, and Rafael Bras, MIT

18. Annual distribution of exceptional high water events, 1923-1996. Source: Centre for tidal forecasting of the Venice Municipality and Rafael Bras, MIT

19. Flooding in St. Mark’s Piazza

20. Rising sea level has led to increased flooding of Venice Acqua Alta

21. doesn’t deter tourists

22. Brenta Canal Brenta River Venice Water diversion reduced sediment delivery to Venice Lagoon Venice circa 1500 Source: Consorzio Venezia Nuova

23. Management responses Source: Chiozzotto and Drusiani, IWA Conference 2002

24. A massive engineering project has been initiated for storm surge protection

25. Escenarios futuros

26. ~ Why are coastal lagoons an “issue” for the 21 st C? ~ What is the prognosis for coastal lagoons? ~ What have we learned about coastal lagoons? ~ What do we still need to work on?

27. Types of Scenarios ~ Global change: eg rate of sea-level rise, storm frequency, erosion/deposition rates ~ Futures: business as usual, industrial development, green “eco-scenario” ~ Modeling: increase pig farming, build sewage treatment plant, grant aquaculture concessions

28. What is the scenario? Santa Marta: ~ Industrial and port development “full speed ahead” ~ Tourist and golf resorts ~ Aquaculture and mineral extraction ~ Eco-tourism paradise, no development

29. Scenarios Cartagena? “Your” lagoon

30. Who are the actors? ~ Scientists? ~ Stakeholders? ~ Decision makers and managers?

31. Stakeholders

32. Decision makers

33. Scientists

34. 21 st C Prognosis for coastal lagoons? ~ Coastal lagoons are ephemeral, dynamic systems on a geological time-scale Consequences of climate change and sea-level rise? ~ We will loose some coastal lagoons, some very soon, e.g. Chesil fleet in the UK ~ New coastal lagoons will form in flooded coastal plains ~ Furthermore, what are the consequences of changes in the biogeochemical cycles ? ~ Increased urbanization of the coastal zone?

35. Scenarios (consider main economical activities and DPSIR scheme): Extension of clam farming areas Simulation with different initial clam densities Simulation with different seeding levels Simulation with and without macroalgae Natural variability/Climatic changes (wet/normal/dry years) Human activities in the watershed (variation of nutrient loads: lower/normal/higher ) Scenarios developed together with the regional authorities eg Sacca di Goro, Ferrara Province, Italy

36. Scenario 1 : Areas of priority - identification of sub-areas of the basin where the highest effect of management intervention is obtained in terms of N-load reduction to coastal waters. Scenario 2: A targeted 35% reduction in nitrate loads by means of implementing the national program, Environmentally Sound Agricultural Production'( MVJ) (7000 ha), catch crops (5000 ha), reduced discharge from pump drained areas, restored wetlands (4000 ha). Scenario 3: A targeted 50 % reduction in nitrate loads by means of all scenario 2 elements and an additional reduction in animal stock (29.000 animal units) in selected areas of the basin. Examples of management scenarios Ringkøbing Fjord, Dk

37. From science to management and back to science ~ Science, i.e. ecological status, biogeochemical cycles and fluxes, climate change, etc. ~ Science for management, e.g. assessing environmental flows, sustainable yields, etc. ~ Science of management, e.g. modeling human impacts and land uses, resource optimisation ~ Management based on science, e.g. wetland restoration, lagoon sustainability, ~ Managing competing demands of society – policy and politics Goal: integrating science in management

38. The sustainability challenge GEOMORPHIC SUSTAINABILTY (relative sea level rise, sediment deficit) ECOLOGICAL SUSTAINABILITY (pollution, fragmentation, global warming) SOCIOECONOMIC SUSTAINABILITY (overexploitation, land uses, policy) Goal : integrating the three levels of sustainability