1. The Socioeconomic Status of Black Males: The Increasing Importance of Incarceration Steven Raphael Goldman School of Public Policy University of California, Berkeley December, 2003

2. Incarceration Trends: 1970 to 2000 Point-in-time institutionalization trends from the U.S Census Estimating the proportion with prior prison experience

6. Estimating the Proportion with Prior Prison Experience BJS estimates In addition to the 1.3 million current prisoners, an additional 4.3 million have served a prison term in the past Current and former inmates account for 4.9 percent of the 2001 adult male population. –2.6 percent of non-Hispanic white males (1.4 percent in 1974) –16.6 percent of non-Hispanic black males (8.7 percent in 1974) –7.7 percent of Hispanic males (2.3 percent in 1974)

9. The Effects of Incarceration on Future Labor Market Prospects To what extent does prison interrupt one’s potential work career? Does having been in prison stigmatize ex-offenders?

15. Increasing incarceration rates and the decline in black employment-to-population ratios among the non- institutionalized Avenues by which the proportion institutionalized may be related to the employment rate among the non- institutionalized –Proportion institutionalized is likely to be positively correlated with the proportion non-institutionalized with criminal history records –Employers may statistically discriminate against applicants from demographic groups with high institutionalization rates

16. Testing the importance of this partial correlations Using the 1970, 1980, 1990, and 2000 one percent PUMS, I estimate the proportion of non-institutionalized men that are employed and the proportion of all men that are institutionalized by age/education/race/ and year. Regress proportion employed (among non- institutionalized) on the proportion institutionalized Assess whether inter-cell variation in the proportion institutionalized explains any of the widening in the black- white employment rate differential.