1. QPF verification of LAMI F. Grazzini, M. S. Tesini, P. Mezzasalma Forecasting Section ARPA-ServizioIdroMeteorologico Emilia-Romagna fgrazzini@arpa.emr.it

2. Outline  Box verification (Tesini)  Weather dependent verification (Mezzasalma)

3. Only grid-points surrounded by obs are considered Box verification (0.4°x0.4°) over N-Italy

4. LamiN OPE (35 lev, Nudging) vs LamiP (OPE+prognostic precipitation)

5. Scores utilizzati yesno yesab nocd observed forecast tabelle contingenza calcolate per soglie

6. Soglia 1Soglia 10 Soglia 5Soglia 20 MAX

7. Soglia 1Soglia 10 Soglia 5Soglia 20 MED Nobs ~ 700 Nobs ~ 80 Nobs ~ 200Nobs ~ 25

8. Soglia 1Soglia 10 Soglia 5Soglia 20 MAX

9. Soglia 1Soglia 10 Soglia 5Soglia 20 MED Nobs ~ 900 Nobs ~ 120 Nobs ~ 300 Nobs ~ 25

10. Soglia 1 Soglia 10 Soglia 5Soglia 20 MAX

11. Soglia 1Soglia 10 Soglia 5 MED Nobs ~ 120 Nobs ~ 12 Nobs ~ 40

12. Weather dependent verification over Emilia- Romagna warning areas  Since Autumn 2003  Average of precipitation over homogeneous areas  Direct feedbacks on the operational interpretation of model output

15. 1 8 7 6 5 4 32 M. Cimone ^ 2173 m Adriatic sea River Po Emilia Romagna’s warning areas Each area contains ~30 LAMI grid points ~3000 Km 2

16. Area average precipitation over warning areas, mm/24h, 2003-2005

23. strong events with area average precipitation over a warning area > 20 mm/24h

26. Precipitation bias with SW wind at 700 hPa > 10 m/s -62% -20%

27. 17% 33% N.B. Only one year of data Precipitation bias with NE wind at 700 hPa > 10 m/s