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Using Historical Analogs as Medium-Range Guidance for Severe Weather Episodes Chad M. Gravelle* and Charles E. Graves Saint Louis University - Department.

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Presentation on theme: "Using Historical Analogs as Medium-Range Guidance for Severe Weather Episodes Chad M. Gravelle* and Charles E. Graves Saint Louis University - Department."— Presentation transcript:

1 Using Historical Analogs as Medium-Range Guidance for Severe Weather Episodes Chad M. Gravelle* and Charles E. Graves Saint Louis University - Department of Earth and Atmospheric Sciences * Current affiliation: CIMSS-University of Wisconsin / NWS Operations Proving Ground Jeffrey P. Craven NOAA/NWS Weather Forecast Office - Milwaukee/Sullivan, WI Alan E. Gerard NOAA/NWS Weather Forecast Office - Jackson, MS John P. Gagan NOAA/NWS Weather Forecast Office - Springfield, MO 2012 National Weather Association Annual Meeting – Madison, WI 8 October 2012

2 Began in 2008 after science meetings between SGF/LSX and SLU. Started with cold-season guidance and expanded to the warm season in 2011. Completely driven by a grassroots movement, no outside funding has ever been awarded. CIPS Analog Guidance History Since November 2009, the CIPS analog guidance has been mentioned in over 250 AFDs by 38 WFOs across the CONUS.

3 Early Analog Definition: If the current state of the atmosphere resembles a previous state then the two are termed analogs, and for a period of time the current state may evolve in a similar fashion as the past state (Lorenz 1969). Modern Analog Definition: Analogs are found using the perfect prognostic (“perfect prog”) approach. NWP forecast fields are used as a pattern-recognition tool in contrast to using analysis maps as a forecast tool (Root et al. 2007). What are Historical Analogs? GFS 30-h ForecastAnalog – 19830212/0000

4 Search the 31-yr North American Regional Reanalysis (NARR) dataset against the model forecast (NAM/GFS212-40km) for potential analogs. –3 months (±45 days from current day) –6 h temporal resolution –11,160 potential analogs (31 years, 90 days, 4 per day) Remove duplicate times by choosing the “best” analog over a 24-h period. 1984011512, 1984011518, 1984011600, 1984011606 Refine and rank (using the analog time and ±6h from analog time) the resulting analogs (prefect analog score is 21). Create “impact-based” guidance products. Fields: Field weights are in parenthesis. CIPS Analog Guidance – “How Do We Do This?” 300HGHT 300SPED 500HGHT 500SPED 850HGHT (3) 850SPED (2) PMSL (2) 850TMPC 850MIXR (3) 2mTMP (2) 2mDWP (2) AVGRELH PWTR 6 CONUS Domains

5 Impact Guidance –Precipitation and COOP Snow Mean and Exceedance Probabilities –Severe Thunderstorm Probabilities –Surface Temperature, Heat Index, and Wind Chill Exceedance Probabilities –Surface Wind Gusts Exceedance Probabilities –Surface Flight Rules Exceedance Probabilities (coming soon) Severe thunderstorm probabilities are developed from the mean of the individual analog Practically Perfect Forecasts (PPFs). Developed by SPC forecasters (Brooks et al. 1998), the approach of the PPF method is that it tries to “mimic” what a near-perfect forecast would look like. CIPS Analog Guidance – Guidance Based on Most Similar Analogs

6 Forecasters use deterministic and ensemble medium-range (days 4-7) NWP output to help formulate: Growing need for NWS partners to know the potential that a high- impact weather event may occur 4-8 days in advance. Identifying significant events is challenging. Historical analogs can be used as a “decision assistance tool”. Historical Analogs – Why in the Medium Range of the Forecast? CPC U.S. Hazards Outlook SPC Day 4-8 OutlookNWS Hazardous Weather Outlook

7 SPC Guidance – Valid on 14 April 2012 Day 4 Outlook Day 5 OutlookDay 6 Outlook SPC 24-h Storm Reports ending 20120415/1200 Day 2 Outlook

8 14 April 2012 – Severe Weather and Tornado Outbreak LL LL GFS 120-h Forecast valid 20120415/0000 PMSL, 2-m TMPF, and 2-m DWPF

9 14 April 2012 – Severe Weather and Tornado Outbreak LL LL GFS 120-h Forecast valid 20120415/0000 850-mb Winds

10 14 April 2012 – Severe Weather and Tornado Outbreak LL LL GFS 120-h Forecast valid 20120415/0000 300-mb Isotachs

11 14 April 2012 – Severe Weather and Tornado Outbreak LL LL GFS 120-h Forecast Synoptic-Scale Features valid 20120415/0000 24-h SPC Severe reports ending 20120415/1200

12 14 April 2012 – Severe Weather and Tornado Outbreak LL LL GFS 120-h Forecast Synoptic-Scale Features valid 20120415/0000 24-h SPC Severe reports ending 20120415/1200

13 14 April 2012 – Severe Weather and Tornado Outbreak Mean of Top 15 Analogs Based on GFS 120-h Forecast valid 20120415/0000 PMSL, 2-m TMPF, and 2-m DWPF LL

14 14 April 2012 – Severe Weather and Tornado Outbreak LL Mean of Top 15 Analogs Based on GFS 120-h Forecast valid 20120415/0000 850-mb Winds

15 14 April 2012 – Severe Weather and Tornado Outbreak LL Mean of Top 15 Analogs Based on GFS 120-h Forecast valid 20120415/0000 300-mb Isotachs

16 14 April 2012 – Severe Weather and Tornado Outbreak Mean of Top 15 Analog Features Based on GFS 120-h Forecast valid 20120415/0000 Probability of Severe Weather Within 40km Grid Point (8 most severe analogs) LL

17 14 April 2012 – Severe Weather and Tornado Outbreak Mean of Top 15 Analog Features Based on GFS 120-h Forecast valid 20120415/0000 Probability of Severe Weather Within 40km Grid Point (8 most severe analogs) LL Synoptic-Scale Features Based on GFS 120-h Forecast 24-h SPC Severe Reports ending 20120415/1200

18 Analog Guidance (F144-F072) – 14 April 2012 Based on 3-day ForecastBased on 4-day Forecast Based on 5-day ForecastBased on 6-day Forecast

19 SPC Guidance – Valid on 29 June 2012 Day 4 Outlook Day 5 OutlookDay 6 Outlook SPC 24-h Storm Reports ending 20120630/1200

20 GFS 108-h Forecast valid 20120629/1200 PMSL, 2-m TMPF, and 2-m DWPF 29-30 June 2012 – Great Lakes/Ohio Valley Derecho LL LL

21 GFS 108-h Forecast valid 20120629/1200 PMSL, 2-m TMPF, and 2-m DWPF 29-30 June 2012 – Great Lakes/Ohio Valley Derecho LL LL

22 LL LL GFS 108-h Forecast valid 20120629/1200 850-mb Winds

23 29-30 June 2012 – Great Lakes/Ohio Valley Derecho LL LL GFS 108-h Forecast valid 20120629/1200 500-mb Winds

24 29-30 June 2012 – Great Lakes/Ohio Valley Derecho LL LL GFS 108-h Forecast valid 20120629/1200 300-mb Isotachs

25 29-30 June 2012 – Great Lakes/Ohio Valley Derecho GFS 108-h Forecast Synoptic-Scale Features valid 20120629/1200 GFS 48-h QPF ending 20120701/0000V144 LL LL

26 29-30 June 2012 – Great Lakes/Ohio Valley Derecho GFS 108-h Forecast Synoptic-Scale Features valid 20120629/1200 24-h SPC Severe Reports ending 20120630/1200 LL LL

27 29-30 June 2012 – Great Lakes/Ohio Valley Derecho GFS 108-h Forecast Synoptic-Scale Features valid 20120629/1200 24-h SPC Severe Reports ending 20120630/1200 LL LL

28 29-30 June 2012 – Great Lakes/Ohio Valley Derecho LL LL Mean of Top 15 Analogs Based on GFS 108-h Forecast valid 20120629/1200 PMSL, 2-m TMPF, and 2-m DWPF

29 29-30 June 2012 – Great Lakes/Ohio Valley Derecho LL LL Mean of Top 15 Analogs Based on GFS 108-h Forecast valid 20120629/1200 850-mb Winds

30 29-30 June 2012 – Great Lakes/Ohio Valley Derecho LL LL Mean of Top 15 Analogs Based on GFS 108-h Forecast valid 20120629/1200 500-mb Winds

31 29-30 June 2012 – Great Lakes/Ohio Valley Derecho LL LL Mean of Top 15 Analogs Based on GFS 108-h Forecast valid 20120629/1200 300-mb Isotachs

32 29-30 June 2012 – Great Lakes/Ohio Valley Derecho Mean of Top 15 Analog Features Based on GFS 108-h Forecast valid 20120629/1200 Probability of Severe Weather Within 40km Grid Point (8 most severe analogs) LL LL

33 29-30 June 2012 – Great Lakes/Ohio Valley Derecho Mean of Top 15 Analog Features Based on GFS 108-h Forecast valid 20120629/1200 Probability of Severe Weather Within 40km Grid Point (8 most severe analogs) LL LL Surface Features Based on GFS 108-h Forecast 24-h SPC Severe Reports ending 20120630/1200

34 Analog Guidance (F144-F072) – 29 June 2012 Based on 3-day ForecastBased on 4-day Forecast Based on 5-day ForecastBased on 6-day Forecast

35 Analog Guidance Individual Events (F144-F072) – 29 June 2012 20 July 1998 22 July 199809 August 2000 08 July 1991 08 July 200005 July 1980

36 F096 – The Day Before Analog Guidance 20120625/0000 F096 and F144 F144 – The Day After

37 Analog guidance has qualitative skill to provide situational awareness in the medium range of the forecast. Meteorological patterns are not created equal…some are more “predictable” and easier to identify than others. In the medium range, the analog guidance should be used with deterministic and ensemble model output to assist in identifying patterns that are historically associated with a weather impact. A “perfect” analog does not exist. Only a few, good quality analogs may exist for anomalous and record breaking events. Conclusions and Takeaways

38 Questions or comments? chad.gravelle@noaa.gov Questions

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