1. Figure 3. The percent of natural production during the doubling period (1992- 2009) in relation to the baseline period (1967-1991). Data were unavailable for the doubling period for Bear, Elder, Stoney, and Thomes creeks. Doubling goal Ramon Martin and Rick Burmester U.S. Fish and Wildlife Service, Anadromous Fish Restoration Program, 4001 N. Wilson Way, Stockton, CA, 95205 Doug Threloff U.S. Fish and Wildlife Service, Comprehensive Assessment and Monitoring Program, 2800 Cottage Way, Sacramento, CA, 95825 Oct 2003 THE ANADROMOUS FISH RESTORATION PROGRAM, A STATUS UPDATE Anadromous Fish Restoration Program CVPIA § 3406(b)(1) References CHINOOKPROD.xls. Working paper on restoration needs; Habitat restoration actions to double natural production of anadromous fish in the Central Valley of California. Volume 2, Appendix A, Volume 3, page 2-IX-5-18. U.S. Fish and Wildlife Service. May 9, 1995. Mills, T.J. and F. Fisher. 1994. Central Valley anadromous sport fish annual run-size, harvest, and population estimates, 1967 through 1991. August 1994. California Department of Fish and Game. Sacramento, CA. USFWS. 1995. Working paper on restoration needs: Habitat restoration actions to double natural production of anadromous fish in the Central Valley of California. Volumes 1,2,3. May 9, 1995. Prepared for the U.S. Fish and Wildlife Service under the direction of the Anadromous Fish Restoration Program. Stockton, CA. USFWS. 2001. Final Restoration Plan for the Anadromous Fish Restoration Program; A Plan to Increase Natural Production of Anadromous Fish in the Central Valley of California. January 9, 2001. Prepared for the U.S. Fish and Wildlife Service under the direction of the Anadromous Fish Restoration Program. Stockton, CA. USFWS. 2009. Assessment of Anadromous Fish Production in the Central Valley of California between 1992 and 2008. Report prepared by the U.S. Fish and Wildlife Service and Bureau of Reclamation, Comprehensive Assessment and Monitoring Program. Sacramento, CA. 93 pp. Correspondence: Ramon_Martin@fws.gov In addition to assessing progress by implementation of the Final Restoration Plan actions and evaluations, progress toward achieving the doubling goals can be assessed by calculating the production of naturally spawning fish. While the AFRP has production goals for six anadromous species, restoration actions and evaluations have focused on Chinook salmon. The Central Valley Chinook salmon natural production average decreased in 2009 due to low adult escapement estimates resulting from poor ocean returns (Figure 2). Butte and Clear creeks are streams without hatcheries that have shown positive production responses due to the restoration actions implemented in each watershed. Figure 3 summarizes the status of Central Valley-wide estimates of natural production of Chinook salmon in relation to the doubling goal. The doubling goal for Chinook salmon production for the period of 1992-2009 has been exceeded on Clear, Butte, and Battle creeks and has been nearly met on the Mokelumne River (Figure 3). The AFRP has observed a significant increase in the average natural production of fall run Chinook salmon between the 1967-1991 and 1992-2009 time periods in four watersheds and significant decreases in the Sacramento, Tuolumne, and Miscellaneous creeks (P < 0.05; Table 1). Late-fall run, spring run, and winter run Chinook salmon have decreased significantly in the Sacramento River (P < 0.05; Table 1). Spring and late-fall run Chinook salmon have increased significantly in Butte and Battle creeks respectively (P < 0.05; Table 1). The AFRP will continue to work with its partners and make progress towards the restoration goals in light of the many challenges it faces such as the recent drought, anomalous ocean conditions, and climate change. ABSTRACT The Central Valley Project Improvement Act (CVPIA) directs the Secretary of the Interior to develop and implement a program that makes all reasonable efforts to double natural production of anadromous fish in Central Valley streams. The program is known as the Anadromous Fish Restoration Program (AFRP). Species of anadromous fish to be restored under the AFRP include Chinook salmon, steelhead, striped bass, American shad, and white and green sturgeon. The AFRP is an opportunity for the U.S. Fish and Wildlife Service and the Bureau of Reclamation to collaborate with other agencies, organizations and the public to increase natural production of anadromous fish in Central Valley streams by augmenting and assisting restoration efforts presently conducted by local watershed workgroups, the California Department of Fish and Game (CDFG), and others. The Final Restoration Plan is a comprehensive approach to doubling anadromous fish populations in Central Valley streams. The plan documents restoration goals, objectives, project implementation strategies, describes restoration actions and evaluations, project prioritizations, monitoring, and adaptive management. The AFRP has observed significant changes in the average natural production of fall run Chinook salmon between the 1967-1991 and 1992-2009 time periods in seven watersheds (P < 0.05) and has met the doubling goal in Butte, Battle, and Clear creeks. The AFRP average natural production for late fall Chinook salmon increased in Battle Creek but decreased in the Sacramento River (P < 0.05). Spring run Chinook salmon in Butte Creek increased significantly from the 1967-1991 baseline period (P < 0.001) but decreased in the Sacramento River (P<0.001). Winter run in the Sacramento River has also seen a significant decrease from the baseline period (P = 0.007). The AFRP is currently 14%, 83%, and 1% below the baseline average (1967-1991) for all races of Chinook salmon, steelhead, and white sturgeon respectively. The AFRP Chinook salmon natural production average has been decreasing in the last couple of years due to low adult escapement estimates resulting from poor ocean returns. INTRODUCTION Since settlement of the Central Valley in the mid-1800s, populations of native anadromous fishes have declined dramatically. At present, winter-run Chinook salmon is listed as endangered under the Endangered Species Act, spring-run Chinook salmon, Central Valley steelhead, and green sturgeon are federally listed as threatened, and fall- and late-fall run Chinook salmon are species of special concern. Habitat degradation is likely the primary cause of these declines. Hydraulic mining for gold was the first anthropogenic activity that resulted in large-scale habitat degradation. Later, dams and Delta pumping plants hastened declines of most anadromous species. The decline of anadromous fish populations in the Central Valley has continued through cycles of beneficial and adverse natural conditions, suggesting a need to improve habitat conditions. The objective of this poster is to provide an update on AFRP activities and progress towards meeting program goals. THE GOAL OF THE AFRP Section 3406(b)(1) of the CVPIA, states that the AFRP is to "develop within three years of enactment and implement a program which makes all reasonable efforts to ensure that, by the year 2002, natural production of anadromous fish in Central Valley rivers and streams (Figure 1) will be sustainable, on a long-term basis, at Table 1. Overall assessment of changes in natural production of adult Chinook salmon from the Central Valley, 1967 – 2009. Figure 1. Central Valley rivers and streams RESULTS AND DISCUSSION Since implementation of the program in 1995, AFRP projects have included improving fish passage, spawning, rearing,and riparian habitat; developing educational programs; investigating salmonid natural history; and acquiring easements of floodplains and riparian corridors. These projects are designed to address the limiting factors and actions identified in the Final Restoration Plan (USFWS 2001). Figure 2. Estimated yearly natural production of all races of adult Chinook Salmon in the Central Valley rivers and streams. 1952 - 1966 and 1992 - 2009 numbers are calculated in CHINOOKPROD using CDFG Grand Tab in-river and hatchery escapement data (February 18, 2009). Baseline escapement numbers (1967 - 1991) are from Mills and Fisher (1994). 1992-2009 Average = 427,749 1967-1991 Average = 497,069 Estimated number of all races of adult Chinook Goal = 990,000 (Final Restoration Plan) Watershed and Chinook salmon run * Indicates a fish hatchery is present in the watershed Baseline period (1967 – 1991) natural production averages Doubling period (1992 – 2009) natural production averages P values associated with changes in the average production between the 1967- 1991 and 1992-2009 time periods American River fall-run *80,874114,6780.115 Antelope Creek fall-run36100.099 Battle Creek fall-run *5,01318,8090.000 Battle Creek late-fall-run *2736810.001 Bear River fall-run6390N/A Big Chico Creek fall-run4020N/A Butte Creek fall-run7652,6250.018 Butte Creek spring-run1,01810,5020.000 Calaveras River winter-run77000.028 Clear Creek fall-run3,57611,1490.000 Cosumnes River fall-run1,6607920.196 Cottonwood Creek fall-run2,9641,6910.687 Cow Creek fall-run2,3302,1450.716 Deer Creek fall-run7668850.969 Deer Creek spring-run3,2762,2000.800 Feather River fall-run *86,02896,1850.431 Merced River fall-run *9,0057,1760.844 Mill Creek fall-run2,1182,0380.525 Mill Creek spring-run2,2021,2690.184 Miscellaneous creeks fall- run 54900.022 Mokelumne River fall-run *4,6808,1750.021 Paynes Creek fall-run170naN/A Sacramento River fall-run115,36979,0350.010 Sacramento River late-fall- run 33,94121,8750.035 Sacramento River spring- run 29,4128150.000 Sacramento River winter- run * 54,3166,8650.007 Stanislaus River fall-run10,8685,5550.402 Tuolumne River fall-run18,9497,5580.024 Yuba River fall-run33,26733,6580.730 levels not less than twice the average levels attained during the period of 1967-1991.” To achieve program goals, AFRP works in partnership with stakeholders and other agencies to improve habitat, survival, and passage of anadromous fish, evaluate success of restoration actions, and integrate restoration efforts with harvest and hatchery management. METHODS The AFRP approach to making all reasonable efforts to at least double natural production of anadromous fish includes partnerships, local involvement, public support, adaptive management, and flexibility. Restoration actions are selected and prioritized based on the magnitude of expected contribution to increasing natural production, the status of target species and races, and other considerations. 1.2 Chinook salmon natural production estimates are developed using a spreadsheet that incorporates estimates of in-river and hatchery escapement, ocean and in-stream harvest, and the proportion of hatchery returns that spawn in-river (USFWS 1995). A Mann Whitney U test was used to determine if there is a statistically significant (α = 0.05) difference in the average natural production of adult Chinook salmon from each watershed between the 1967-1991 and 1992-2009 time periods (Table 1). This analysis was consequently used to evaluate If the program has had any significant gains in achieving the anadromous fish doubling goals since the CVPIA was enacted (USFWS 2009).