1. ASSESSMENT OF CHANGING SEA ICE CONDITIONS AND SHIPPING ACTIVITY IN CANADIAN ARCTIC WATERS 1990-2012 University of Ottawa Larissa Pizzolato Jackie Dawson Luke Copland Environment Canada: Climate Research Division Stephen Howell Chris Derksen Pizzolato L, Howell SEL, Derksen C, Dawson J, Copland L (2014) Changing sea ice conditions and marine transportation activity in Canadian Arctic waters between 1990 and 2012. Climatic Change. doi: 10.1007/s10584-013-1038-3.

2. BACKGROUND Maslanik et al., 2011 NCEP-NCAR Sep 1990 Sep 2012 NSIDC, 2013

3.  Two climate forcing scenarios: RCP 4.5 (low – medium) and RCP 8.5 (high)  Red: Fastest trans- Arctic routes for Polar Class 6 ships  Blue: Fastest trans- Arctic routes for open water ships FUTURE PROJECTIONS: MODELLED SHIPPING INCREASES Smith & Stephenson, 2013

4. 1)Is shipping in the Canadian Arctic increasing? 2)Is sea ice (total ice, MYI, FYI) declining? 3)Is there a connecting between shipping activity and changing sea ice conditions? OBJECTIVES

5. DATA DESCRIPTIONS DatasetSummary Ships 1990 to present 82 555 spatial data records Vessel name, call sign, IMO number, location Sea Ice Canadian Ice Service Weekly regional ice charts across the entire Canadian Arctic Surface Air Temperature NCEP-NCAR monthly SAT means Melt Season Length Melt Onset, Freeze Onset, Melt Season Length

6.  Rodionov Statistical Regime Shift Detector METHODOLOGY Data Acquisition Quality Control Reclassification of Vessel Type Regime Shift Detection Trend Analysis Correlation Analysis  Zhang Method, Sen`s Slope of the Trend  Monthly, Annually, Shipping Season  Kendall`s Tau Rank Correlation  Correct for inconsistencies in vessel name, type, location  36 reported vessel types reclassified using AMSA report into 10 categories

7. REGIME SHIFT DETECTION  Step increase in total shipping activity in the Canadian Arctic in 2007  Confidence that change in reporting did not affect shipping dataset

8. Annual ship counts are increasing for some vessel types:  Bulk Carriers and Passenger Ships  3 vessels decade -1  Government Vessels and Icebreakers and Pleasure Crafts  8 vessels decade -1 ANNUAL SHIPPING TRENDS

9. Total ship increases are observed in some months: June (9 vessels decade -1 ) July (22 vessels decade -1 ) and November (13 vessels decade -1 ) MONTHLY SHIPPING TRENDS Shipping Trends (Vessels Decade -1 ) Vessel TypeJunJulAugSepOctNov Bulk Carriers 00021 Fishing Vessels 6513305 General Cargo 011133 Government Vessels and Icebreakers 133241 Passenger Ships -2230- Pleasure Crafts -11840- Tanker Ships 220601

10. SHIPPING SEASON SEA ICE JUNE 25 TO OCTOBER 15 a. Total Ice b. MYIc. FYI -30 (x 10 3 ) km 2 year -1 -11 (x 10 3 ) km 2 year -1 -19 (x 10 3 ) km 2 year -1

11.  Total Ice area and MYI area is declining in all months of the year (with the exception of Total Ice area in April)  FYI area is declining during the summer months MONTHLY SEA ICE TRENDS Month Trend Ice Area (x 10 3 ) km 2 year -1 Total Ice MYIFYI January -8-143 February -7-133 March -5-135 April -134 May -9-111 June -19-10-5 July -34-14-19 August -29-17-13 September -28-22-6 October -27-23-3 November -24-21-9 December -15-18-6

12.  No significant relationships identified outside the months of July through October or for FYI  Weak relationships between shipping activity and Total Ice Area (-0.30 to -0.34)  Stronger relationships identified between MYI Area and shipping activity (-0.30 to -0.44 ) for specific months and vessel types ARE SEA ICE AND SHIPPING ACTIVITY IN THE CANADIAN ARCTIC LINKED?

13. SEA ICE AND SHIPPING ACTIVITY IN RECENT YEARS Strengthening relationship between Total Ice area and MYI area and shipping activity in more recent years.

14.  Increasing SAT at a rate of 0.7ºC to 1.8ºC decade -1  Melt Season length + 11 days decade -1  Freeze onset + 8 days decade -1 MELT SEASON LENGTH AND SURFACE AIR TEMPERATURE  Earlier melt onset linked to increasing number of Passenger Ships annually  Strong link between Total Ice area and:  Melt season length  Melt onset  Freeze onset

15.  Spatio-temporal changes in shipping activity and sea ice conditions from 1990 to 2012  Identification of regions of increased (or decreased) shipping activity  Are regions of increased ship activity also areas of sea ice decline/thinning? FUTURE WORK

16.  Step increase in shipping activity in 2007  Increasing shipping activity for some vessel types annually, and monthly between June and November  Evidence of extension of the shipping season into the shoulder seasons of June and November  Physical relationships are weak, suggesting other factors (i.e. economics, tourism) play an important role in observed increases shipping activity  Strengthening relationship between Total Ice area and shipping activity in recent years SUMMARY

17. University of Ottawa Larissa Pizzolato Jackie Dawson Luke Copland Environment Canada: Climate Research Division Stephen Howell Chris Derksen Thank-You! Pizzolato L, Howell SEL, Derksen C, Dawson J, Copland L (2014) Changing sea ice conditions and marine transportation activity in Canadian Arctic waters between 1990 and 2012. Climatic Change. doi: 10.1007/s10584-013-1038-3.