Presentation on theme: "Arctic Climate Change Practical Implications of Changing Ice Cover John Falkingham IICWG, October 2000."— Presentation transcript:
Arctic Climate Change Practical Implications of Changing Ice Cover John Falkingham IICWG, October 2000
Source: Parkinson SMMR/SSM I Analysis Source: Rothrock, U. of Washington Is the Arctic Icescape Changing? Science and observational evidence point to decreasing ice
Source: Parkinson SMMR/SSM I Analysis Source: Rothrock, U. of Washington No Summer Ice Cover www.msc-smc.ec.gc.ca/socc/seaice/seaice_future.html Is the Arctic Icescape Changing? Science and observational evidence point to decreasing ice
Hudson Bay Median Total Ice Concentration (1971-1998) for July 15 open water Ct 1 to 3 Ct 4 to 6 Ct 7 to 8 Ct 9 to 9+ Ct 10
Inter-Annual Variability Hudson Bay ice extent can vary by more than 300 % from one year to the next
Decreasing Ice Extent Decrease of about 20% since 1968
Natural Resources Considerable resources ready for development Decreased ice would make these resources considerably more attractive economically
Marine Resources Currently, the only commercial fishery is the shrimp fishery along the Davis Strait / Baffin Bay ice edge Reduced ice extent could attract international fishing fleets to vast new stocks How will these new resources be managed?
The Northwest Passage Mariners have been seeking this route for at least 500 years. Will it become viable in this century?
CGCM2: Winter and Summer Projected Ice Cover Change 1971-90 vs 2041-2060 March September Canadian Centre for Climate Modelling and Analysis, Meteorological Service of Canada
Inter-Annual Variability ˚Icebreaker escort will often be required ˚Route planning will be essential to avoid ice ˚Ice information services will be in high demand ˚Significant changes to ice information infrastructure Even with much reduced sea ice in the Arctic in the future, there will still be bad ice years interspersed with good ice years
Conclusion Cooperation and coordination among national ice services of the north polar region will become more important than ever