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Published byFrancis Lawrence Modified over 9 years ago
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Global warming and severe weather: hurricanes
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Hurricanes and global warming More hurricanes – Warming SST’s (sea surface temperatures) suggest greater source of energy for hurricanes, hence they should be more frequent
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N. Atlantic hurricane record best after 1944 with aircraft surveillance. SST (1944-2005)
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Hurricanes and global warming Fewer hurricanes – Increased wind shear – Increasing atmospheric stability
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La Nina Drawing
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El Nino Drawing/animation
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Southern Oscillation and global warming ENSO not caused by global warming ENSO is natural cycle More El Nino conditions under global warming
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Source of uncertainties Small sample size (only a few hurricanes each year)
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Early view of hurricane structure, 1946
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Radar-based hurricane tracking, 1960
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http://weather.unisys.com/hurricane/atlantic/index.html
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Source of uncertainties Difficult to separate natural and anthropogenic influences on the conditions leading to hurricane development
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Source of uncertainties Different ways to quantify hurricane activity? – Strength? – Frequency? – Duration of season? – Tracks?
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