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Global warming and severe weather: hurricanes. Hurricanes and global warming More hurricanes – Warming SST’s (sea surface temperatures) suggest greater.

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Presentation on theme: "Global warming and severe weather: hurricanes. Hurricanes and global warming More hurricanes – Warming SST’s (sea surface temperatures) suggest greater."— Presentation transcript:

1 Global warming and severe weather: hurricanes

2 Hurricanes and global warming More hurricanes – Warming SST’s (sea surface temperatures) suggest greater source of energy for hurricanes, hence they should be more frequent

3 N. Atlantic hurricane record best after 1944 with aircraft surveillance. SST (1944-2005)

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6 Hurricanes and global warming Fewer hurricanes – Increased wind shear – Increasing atmospheric stability

7 La Nina Drawing

8 El Nino Drawing/animation

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11 Southern Oscillation and global warming ENSO not caused by global warming ENSO is natural cycle More El Nino conditions under global warming

12 Source of uncertainties Small sample size (only a few hurricanes each year)

13 Early view of hurricane structure, 1946

14 Radar-based hurricane tracking, 1960

15 http://weather.unisys.com/hurricane/atlantic/index.html

16 Source of uncertainties Difficult to separate natural and anthropogenic influences on the conditions leading to hurricane development

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18 Source of uncertainties Different ways to quantify hurricane activity? – Strength? – Frequency? – Duration of season? – Tracks?

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