1. Damage Normalization and the Influence of Landfall Variation on Losses Kevin Sharp Master’s Geography – University of Colorado, 2009 Bachelor’s Geography – University of Tennessee, 2007 nasa.gov

2. “Direct impact” hurricane damage in the U.S. (1900-2005) (adjusted for inflation to 2005 $) (Pielke Jr. et al., 2008)

3. Normalization by Pielke Jr. et al. (2008) (Pielke Jr. et al., 2008) D 2005 = Normalized damage in 2005 $ D y = damage in impact year I y = inflation adjustment RWPC y = real wealth per capita adjustment P 2005/y = population adjustment Normalized damage per year (1900-2005) with 11-yr centered avg.

4. ICAT Damage Estimator

5. Master’s Research The Influence of Landfall Variation on Tropical Cyclone Losses in the US as Simulated by HAZUS NHC

6. HAZUS-MH (Vickery et al., 2006) Hazard Model Load Model Resistance Model Damage Model Loss Model Rita-L

7. Research Methods Top 10 storms by normalized damage – (1988-2009) Storm parameters unchanged 30-mile track shift Hurricane eye diameter ≈ 20-40 miles 36-mile NHC 12-hr forecast cone Damage estimate differences Wilma Wilma-L

8. Storm HAZUS direct damage estimate (billions $) Adjusted to 2009 normalized direct damage (billions $) Damage compared to original storm Rank in original normalized record Ivan3.0018.14100%19 Ivan-L6.5039.33217%10 Ivan-R1.197.2040%41 IvanIvan-L Results 2004

9. Storm HAZUS direct damage estimate (billions $) Adjusted to 2009 normalized direct damage (billions $) Damage compared to original storm Rank in original normalized record Katrina52.491.48100%3 Katrina-L92.6162.05177%2 Katrina-R19.233.637%16 Results Katrina 2005

10. Storm HAZUS direct damage estimate (billions $) Adjusted to 2009 normalized direct damage (billions $) Damage compared to original storm Rank in original normalized record Andrew18.0566.19100%5 Andrew-L9.4434.6452%10 Andrew-R32.94120.89183%2 Results Andrew 1992

11. Storm HAZUS direct damage estimate (billions $) Adjusted to 2009 normalized direct damage (billions $) Damage compared to original storm Rank in original normalized record Ike18.1920.10100%15 Ike-L43.6348.43241%6 Ike-R16.7618.6093%18 Results Ike 2008

12. Storm HAZUS direct damage estimate (billions $) Adjusted to 2009 normalized direct damage (billions $) Damage compared to original storm Rank in original normalized record Rita10.0911.27100%31 Rita-L12.1413.60121%28 Rita-R9.7110.8897%32 Results Rita 2005

13. Conclusions Intensity Maximum Rate of dissipation Size Overall Wind field Speed Hurricane modification nasa.gov Hurricane Frances Further Steps Landfall location matters Landfall location very influential in long-term record Little skill in impact prediction

14. References FEMA. (2007). Multi-hazard Loss Estimation Methodology - Hurricane Model - User Manual. Federal Emergency Management Agency. ICAT. (2009). ICAT -Damage Estimator. Retrieved June 26, 2009, from http://www.icatdamageestimator.com/faq#6q Pielke Jr., R. A., Gratz, J., Landsea, C. W., Collins, D., Saunders, M. A., & Musulin, R. (2008). Normalized Hurricane Damage in the United States: 1900--2005. Natural Hazards Rev., 9(1), 29-42. Vickery, P. J., Lin, J., Skerlj, P. F., Twisdale, J.,Lawrence A., & Huang, K. (2006). HAZUS-MH Hurricane Model Methodology. I: Hurricane Hazard, Terrain, and Wind Load Modeling. Natural Hazards Review, 7(2), 82-93. Vickery, P. J., Skerlj, P. F., Lin, J., Twisdale, J.,Lawrence A., Young, M. A., & Lavelle, F. M. (2006). HAZUS-MH Hurricane Model Methodology. II: Damage and Loss Estimation. Natural Hazards Review, 7(2), 94-103.