1. Metapopulation Dynamics Metapopulation structure: Demes linked via dispersal Local scale: colonization, extinction Regional scale: Occupation frequency global extinction

2. University of Kentucky

3. Extinction, Re-colonization Dynamics

4. University of Idaho

5. Spotted Owl: Lahaye et al., 1994, Oikos 63:775

6. Metapopulation

8. Colonization balances Extinction

9. Metapopulation Dynamics p(t): proportion patches occupied, time t Spatially implicit (ignore spatial structure): All patches equally linked

10. Metapopulation Dynamics Predict: p*, equilibrium occupation frequency Equilibrium: colonization = extinction Closed metapopulation (internal colonization) Open metapopulation (island-mainland)

11. Closed Metapopulation

12. Open Metapoulation Colonization: propagule rain from mainland x frequency of open sites Extinction: linear in occupied-site frequency

13. Open Metapoulation

14. Metapopulation Dynamics Assume: Patches identical: colonization, extinction Each patch direct link to all others c, m, e constants Total number of patches large

16. Patch Size, Inter-Patch Distance

17. Migration: Mass, Temperature

18. Metapopulation Extinction Local extinction versus global extinction Consider spatial synchrony across demes Local densities correlate positively Moran effect Dispersal and “simpler” dynamics

19. Metapopulation Extinction High synchrony  Global extinction Asynchrony  Regional persistence Chaos: “nearby trajectories diverge” Can increase local extinction; reduce global extinction

20. Global Synchrony