1. www.FuturoVenezuela.org Sociedad Mundial del Futuro VENEZUELA Presentation about National SOFI’s Millennium Project, Venezuela Node José Luis Cordeiro Washington, July 30, 2004

2. The future is no longer what it used to be. Mafalda www.FuturoVenezuela.org Sociedad Mundial del Futuro VENEZUELA

3. What variables should be included in a national SOFI? How can very different variables be combined? How can the variables be forecast? How can the variables be weighted? How can double accounting be avoided? Design of National SOFI’s www.FuturoVenezuela.org Sociedad Mundial del Futuro VENEZUELA

4. SOFI selection of variables SOFI data collection Forecasting the data (TIA) Analysis National SOFI report Procedure for National SOFI’s www.FuturoVenezuela.org Sociedad Mundial del Futuro VENEZUELA

5. 1. Infant mortality rate (deaths per 1,000 live births) 2. Food availability (calories per capita in low–income countries) 3. GDP per capita, PPP (constant 1995 dollars) 4. Share of households with access to safe water (15 most populated countries) 5. Mean monthly carbon dioxide in atmosphere (ppm) 6. Annual population addition (million) 7. Percent unemployed (world) 8. Literacy rate, adult total (in low- and middle-income countries) 9. Annual AIDS deaths (million) 1 0. Life expectancy (world) 1 1. Number of armed conflicts (those with at least 1,000 deaths per year) 1 2. Developing-country debt 1 3. Forestlands (million hectares) 1 4. People living on less than $2 per day (billion, without China) 1 5. Terrorist attacks (number of people killed or wounded) 1 6. Violent crime (per 100,000 population, in 17 countries) 1 7. Share of population living in countries that are not free 1 8. Secondary school enrollment (% of school age) 1 9. Share of population with access to health care (15 most populated countries) 2 0. Number of countries having or thought to have nuclear capacity Variables in the 2003 SOFI www.FuturoVenezuela.org Sociedad Mundial del Futuro VENEZUELA

6. Missing data for National SOFI’s www.FuturoVenezuela.org Sociedad Mundial del Futuro VENEZUELA

7. USA Chile Venezuela Canada Brazil Argentina Mexico Colombia Ecuador Peru National SOFI’s (in the Americas) www.FuturoVenezuela.org Sociedad Mundial del Futuro VENEZUELA

8. ArgentiinaBrazilCanadaChileColombiaEcuadorMexicoPeruVenezuelaUSA 19830,7850,8151,0191,0001,0401,4890,9931,0581,1950,805 19841,1080,8271,0311,017 1,5050,9951,0451,1720,826 19850,9360,8301,0400,5730,8761,2790,8400,7820,9910,832 19860,9660,8771,0440,6710,8881,1880,8360,8140,9980,830 19870,9750,9021,0500,7470,9160,9970,8330,8741,0160,840 19880,9750,9281,0590,8400,9230,9140,8280,9111,0320,847 19890,8420,9471,0120,9360,9290,8410,8630,8620,8980,852 19900,9740,8900,9050,7760,9040,8840,8640,8190,8040,909 19911,0350,8920,8780,8320,9370,9260,8750,8460,8490,891 19921,0450,8830,8650,8690,9770,9440,8930,7890,8600,891 19931,0260,8660,8560,8801,0060,9720,8970,7380,8410,891 19941,0100,9010,8670,8841,0311,0500,9010,8240,8130,901 19950,9180,9400,8760,9391,0301,1090,8160,8710,9030,905 19960,9350,9610,8760,9630,9971,1170,8860,9220,9120,928 19970,9680,9620,8990,9701,0011,1210,9470,9630,9640,960 19980,970 0,9230,9170,9721,0780,9590,9690,9710,979 19990,9680,9060,9440,8860,8770,8800,9860,9750,8770,997 20000,9750,9320,9840,8870,8770,9780,9980,9931,0021,021 20010,9430,9210,9970,8560,9511,0981,0071,0281,0091,026 20021111111111 20031,0021,0160,9761,0201,0030,9990,9921,0081,0011,007 20041,0041,0170,9831,0361,007 1,0010,9951,0071,015 20051,0061,0290,9901,0521,0111,0061,0101,0021,0131,022 20061,0091,0410,9971,0671,0151,0041,0191,0091,0181,030 20071,0111,0531,0041,0821,0201,0021,0281,0161,0231,037 20081,0131,0671,0111,0961,0241,0001,0371,0221,0281,044 20091,0161,0801,0181,1101,0290,9991,0461,0291,0331,052 20101,0181,0941,0241,1231,0330,9971,0551,0351,0381,059 20111,0201,1081,0311,1361,0380,9951,0641,0411,0421,066 20121,0231,1231,0381,1491,0420,9931,0741,047 1,073

9. National SOFI’s (base 2002 = 1) www.FuturoVenezuela.org Sociedad Mundial del Futuro VENEZUELA

11. Review methodology Define variables and weights Improve data collection Expande country set Cross regional comparisons Historical comparisons of forecasts Base case analysis and other scenarios Comparison with other indexes Next Steps for National SOFI’s www.FuturoVenezuela.org Sociedad Mundial del Futuro VENEZUELA

12. www.FuturoVenezuela.org ¡Muchas gracias! www.FuturoVenezuela.org Sociedad Mundial del Futuro VENEZUELA