1. Estimates of Immigrant Civic Potential Prepared for Carnegie Corporation of New York June 2008

2. Executive Summary 2 This report estimates the size and scope of three key groups of immigrants and their children: Adult legal immigrants eligible to naturalize, Adult naturalized immigrants, including those who are not registered to vote, and U.S. citizen children of immigrants who will be of voting age by 2012. At the end of this report we sum these three populations to an “immigrant inclusive” number that illustrates the magnitude of these communities. Some of the key findings include: Adult Legal Immigrants Eligible to Naturalize There are 8.3 million legal immigrants eligible to naturalize. These immigrants represent a wide variety of countries of origin. More than 80 percent are located in ten states. Adult Naturalized Immigrants in Need of Voter Registration There are 14.9 million naturalized adults in the U.S. Many of these persons – 5.8 million or 39 percent – are not registered to vote. U.S. Citizen Children of Immigrants Who Will Be of Voting Age by 2012 Almost one in six or 16 percent of children aged 12-17 years are U.S. citizens who have an immigrant parent. In California the corresponding number is 41 percent. 71 percent of Asian and 48 percent of Latino children nationally are U.S. citizens who have an immigrant parent. Sum Total of These Populations The sum of these populations could represent one of ten adult citizens in the year 2012. These groups could represent 30 percent of adult citizens in California, 23 percent in New York, and 20 percent in New Jersey.

3. 3 Legal Immigrants Eligible to Naturalize

4. There are 8.3 Million Legal Immigrants Eligible to Naturalize in the United States By Selected States: 2006 Legal Permanent Residents Eligible to Naturalize Percent of Total United States 8,250,000100.0% Arizona 150,0001.8% California 2,490,00030.2% Florida 680,0008.2% Georgia 110,0001.3% Illinois 370,0004.5% Massachusetts 190,0002.3% New Jersey 350,0004.2% New York 1,030,00012.5% Texas 840,00010.2% Washington 170,0002.1% Rest of U.S. 1,870,00022.7% Source: US Dept. of Homeland Security By Countries of Origin: 2006 Legal Permanent Residents Eligible to Naturalize Percent of Total United States 8,250,000 100.0% Mexico 2,650,000 32.1% Philippines 310,000 3.8% Dominican Republic 310,000 3.8% Canada 260,000 3.2% Cuba 230,000 2.8% Vietnam 220,000 2.7% El Salvador 220,000 2.7% China 210,000 2.5% India 200,000 2.4% Korea 180,000 2.2% Other 3,460,000 41.9% Source: US Dept. of Homeland Security 4 The largest single group of immigrants eligible to naturalize is from Mexico. However, nine other countries of origin have at least 180,000 persons who could naturalize. More than 80 percent of immigrants eligible to naturalize are found in ten states California is home to 30 percent of immigrants eligible to naturalize, followed by New York (13 percent) and Texas (10 percent)

5. The Leading Groups Eligible to Naturalize Vary by State Red ink highlights groups that are at least 10% of a state’s legal immigrant population Country-of-Origin Percentage of State Legal Immigrant Populations All Countries MexicoChinaPhilippinesVietnam El SalvadorCuba Dominican Republic United States 8,250,000100% 32%3%4%3% 4% Arizona 150,000100% 67%1%2% 1% 0% California 2,490,000100% 49%3%7%4% 0% Florida 680,000100% 9%0%1% 22%3% Georgia 110,000100% 35%2%1%4%2%1% Illinois 370,000100% 45%2%4%1%0% Massachusetts 190,000100% 1%5%1%4%3%0%12% New Jersey 350,000100% 8%2%5%1%2% 12% New York 1,030,000100% 6%5%2%1%2%1%18% Texas 840,000100% 63%1%2%3%4%0% Washington 170,000100% 29%3%6% 1%0% Includes groups with >200,000 persons nationally, excepting Canada Source: U.S. Department of Homeland Security; authors' estimates 5 Mexico is the leading country of origin of immigrants eligible to naturalize in many but not all states. Cuba is the leading country of origin in Florida, while the Dominican Republic is the leading country in Massachusetts, New Jersey, and New York.

6. 6 Adult Naturalized Immigrants, Including Those Not Registered to Vote

7. Large Numbers of Naturalized Adults Are Not Registered to Vote Percent of Naturalized Adults Who Are Not Registered to Vote by Selected States Naturalized Adults Number Not Registered Percent Not Registered United States 14,850,5325,805,29939.1% Arizona 253,24175,54429.8% California 4,112,1441,724,87041.9% Florida 1,467,132459,16031.3% Georgia 244,230136,38055.8% Illinois 732,241320,27443.7% Massachusetts 400,223134,74833.7% New Jersey 812,007249,09730.7% New York 2,032,641799,32739.3% Texas 1,081,800459,19142.4% Washington 318,008118,92737.4% Rest of U.S. 3,396,8671,327,78239.1% Note: Population data are 2006; Registration rates are 2004 Source: 2005/2006 American Community Survey; 2004 Current Population Survey Almost 40 percent of adult naturalized immigrants were not registered in 2004. By contrast only 28 percent of the overall U.S. population was not registered. Naturalized immigrants in need of voter registration ranges from 30 percent in Arizona to 56 percent in Georgia. 7

8. Percent of Naturalized Adults Who Are Not Registered to Vote by Race/Ethnicity Naturalized Adults Not Registered to Vote Percent Not Registered US Total14,850,5325,805,29939.1% Asian non-Latino4,555,8522,056,04145.1% Black non-Latino1,194,615447,95937.5% Latino4,658,0751,883,58240.4% White non-Latino4,173,0461,321,83431.7% Other non-Latino268,94595,88435.7% Note: Population data are 2005/2006; Registration rates are 2004 Source: 2005/2006 American Community Survey; 2004 Current Population Survey Asian Immigrants Are Least Likely to Be Registered Voters Among naturalized immigrants, rates of voter registration vary considerably among the major racial/ethnic groups. 46 percent of naturalized Asian are not registered to vote. 41 percent of naturalized Latinos are not registered. 8

9. 9 U.S. Citizen Children of Immigrants

10. In Many States, Large Percentages of Young Persons Have an Immigrant Parent 10 Percent of U.S. Citizen Children Who Have an Immigrant Parent Source: 2005/2006 American Community Survey Nationally, 3.7 million or 16 percent of young persons aged 12-17 years are U.S. citizens who have an immigrant parent. U.S. citizen children of immigrants are 41 percent of all young persons in California and 26 percent of young persons in New York.

11. Percent of Citizen Children 12-17 Years of Age with an Immigrant Parent by Race/Ethnicity 11 71% of Asian children are U.S. citizens with a foreign-born parent 48% of Latino children are U.S. citizens with a foreign-born parent Source: 2005/2006 American Community Survey Large Numbers of Asian and Latino Children Are U.S. Citizens Who Have an Immigrant Parent Total Number of Children Number of U.S. Citizen Children with an ImmigrantParent Percent of Children Who Are Citizens with an Immigrant Parent All Children23,304,5303,734,18016.0% Asian non-Latino875,351624,50871.3% Latino 4,018,4241,911,05647.6% White non-Latino 14,317,565759,2535.3% Other non-Latino 4,093,190439,36410.7%

12. Numbers of Asian/Latino Children with Immigrant Parents Are Particularly High in Some States More than three quarters of California and New Jersey Asian children are citizens who have an immigrant parent. More than 61 percent of California Latino children are citizens who have an immigrant parent. 12

13. 13 The Potential “Immigrant Inclusive” Adult Population

14. 14 An “Immigrant Inclusive” Adult Citizenry in 2012 Could Include Large Numbers of Persons Who Have a Close Connection to the Immigrant Experience The “Immigrant Inclusive” population -- immigrants eligible to naturalize, naturalized adults and citizen children of immigrants turning 18 by 2012– potentially represents 12 percent of adults in that year. This “immigrant inclusive” population potentially represents 29 percent of California adults and 23 percent of New York adults.

15. Methodology 15

16. About Rob Paral and Associates Rob Paral and Associates is a consulting firm that helps institutions understand the populations they serve and the impact of their programs. We collect and analyze information and present our findings in an accessible format. Our recent projects have included: Helping a health policy organization determine the need for health insurance in legislative districts in Illinois. Estimating the numbers of legal immigrants in U.S. metro areas for a national philanthropic organization. Providing a legal aid corporation with information to understand the shifting needs of its clients. Evaluating the impact of charitable giving and support for community foundations in the Midwest. Developing policies and procedures needed by a state agency to communicate with limited-English clients. Direct outcomes of our work have recently been cited in The New York Times, the Washington Post, the Economist, the Wall Street Journal, and a large number of other major news media outlets. Please contact Rob Paral and Associates at info@robparal.com, www.robparal.com, and 773-506-7308.info@robparal.comwww.robparal.com 16