0. Prompt Global Strike Update
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Prompt Global Strike Update
August 2005
Col Rick Patenaude
HQ AFSPC/DRM
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1. Overview National Guidance Prompt Global Strike Common Aero Vehicle
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Overview
National Guidance
Prompt Global Strike
Common Aero Vehicle
Conventional Ballistic Missile
Issues and mitigation
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2. Guidance Quadrennial Defense Review Range Global Precision
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Guidance
Defenses
Responsive
Infrastructure
ICBMs
Bombers
SLBMs
C2, Intelligence &
Planning -
Nuclear and non
nuclear
strike capabilities
Contend effectively with future challenges:
Traditional
Irregular
Catastrophic
Disruptive
Projecting forces in distant anti-access environments
Denying enemies sanctuary
Nuclear Posture Review
New Strategic Triad includes nuclear and non-nuclear capabilities
Quadrennial Defense Review
“The defense strategy rests on the assumption that U.S. forces have the ability to project power worldwide.”
“…require the development and acquisition of robust capabilities to conduct persistent surveillance, precision strike, and maneuver at varying depths within denied areas.”
“…emphasis must be placed on manned and unmanned long-range precision strike assets.”
Range
Global
Precision
Conventional
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3. Prompt Global Strike Analysis of Alternatives
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Prompt Global Strike
Prompt Global Strike (PGS) Mission Need Statement
Strike globally and rapidly with joint conventional forces against high-payoff targets
In a timeframe reduced from weeks/days to hours/minutes
Even when no permanent military presence or only limited infrastructure is in a region
Regardless of anti-access threats
In a single or multi-theater environment
Analysis of Alternatives
Determine the best method (means) to
create desired effects:
Responsively: hrs/mins
Globally: anywhere
Lethally: precision
Engage
Common Aero
Vehicle
Other
Likely to produce…
A force mix
Not a single
optimized
solution
Other
Next Generation
Bomber
Sub Launched
Missile
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4. Time Sensitive Strike Targets
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Time Sensitive Strike Targets
Tae Po Dong Launch Pad
“pre-boost phase missile defense”
Study by ADVATECH PACIFIC
found satellites vulnerable to ground based laser
High pay off command and control
“pre-boost phase missile defense”
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5. Campaign-Level Military Utility
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Campaign-Level Military Utility
Two independent CAV Military Utility Analyses conducted using DoD validated scenarios…results indicate:
“CAV provided significant military utility in a variety of scenarios and was the weapon of choice for a wide variety of target types.”
“Results showed that CAV has value, not just as a “Silver Bullet”, but as part of a total munitions portfolio that cooperatively leverages each element”
“Force application effect significant and increases as Blue reacts to access restrictions: 7% - 16% improvement”
“Large CAV strikes early on [integrated air defense systems and high value targets]: “kick down door””
“Red [offensive counterspace] is a VERY lucrative target, more so if no replenishment: ‘An ounce of prevention…’”
Primary utility derived from system timeliness and survivability
Prompt conventional strike (60 minutes or less) on a global basis
Virtually immune to enemy defensive capabilities
Shortens military campaign
Delays enemy advance, buying time until required assets in theater
Allows more efficient use of other strike assets
Savings not only in $, but loss of life
Utility across a broad target set
Time critical and fleeting targets
Integrated air defenses
Hard and deeply buried targets
Command and control/leadership
Offensive counterspace systems
CAV has value as part of a total warfighting portfolio that leverages each element…CAV is more than just a “silver bullet”
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6. DRAFT
Common Aero Vehicle
Rapid conventional theater support and global strike on time critical targets
Application across the spectrum of conflict
Mission
One hour from decision to done, worldwide
Variety of payloads
3-meter accuracy
Potential for in-flight re-planning
CAPABILITIES
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7. DRAFT
FALCON
Joint Air Force/Defense Advanced Research Projects Agency demonstration program
Hypersonic Test Vehicle
Hypersonic technology development
Long Range payload delivery vehicle technology
Air Force /DARPA
Hypersonic Cruise Vehicle
Space vehicle to carry 12,000 lb payloads at hypersonic speeds
Aircraft-like operations: reusable, recallable, launch-on-demand
DARPA
Small Launch Vehicle
Spacelift booster capable of placing 1,000 lb spacecraft into low earth orbit
2-hour launch from alert
<$5M recurring launch cost
Air Force
HTV
HCV
FY04
FY05
FY06
FY07
FY08
FY09
Hypersonic Cruise Vehicle B
Hypersonic Technology Vehicle (HTV-1)
Hypersonic Technology Vehicle (HTV-2)
Military Utility Analysis
PDR
CDR
Concept
Flt Demo
FY10
FY11
Flight Demos
PGS AoA
Design & Development
SLV
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8. Conventional Ballistic Missile
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Conventional Ballistic Missile
Booster
Guam
Alaska
Vandenberg AFB
Basing
Minotaur III
Minuteman
Weapons
Peacekeeper
Inert
Mk 21
Triax
PGSEV
Mk 4e2
CAV
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9. Land Basing Attributes
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Land Basing Attributes
Key attributes of a CONUS-based system
Prompt response
Low cost to operate and maintain
High availability…capable of 24/7 operations
High reliability
Unambiguous launch location
No co-location of nuclear and conventional capabilities*
Minimizes risk of misinterpretation
Clear intentions
Best possible two-way communications… immediate, real-time, with immediate feedback
Horizontal Coffin
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10. Overcoming the Nuclear Stigma
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Overcoming the Nuclear Stigma
Precedence has been established
START declarations help mitigate concerns
Build trust through transparency
Avoiding miscalculations
Need to ensure no surprises-share Concept of Operations
Engage in activities that demonstrate capabilities
Participate in ongoing, continuous dialogue to share intentions
Mitigating measures
Develop Doctrine to reassure allies and adversaries concerning intentions
Build confidence through gaming and exercises
Dual role nuclear/conventional weapon systems
B-52
SSGN
F-16
B-1
B-2
TLAM
ALCM
Field
Artillery
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11. DRAFT
Mitigating Measures
To ensure there is no misinterpretation of the intent or use of the FALCON/CAV programs (conventional vice nuclear), a credible “package” of tailored mitigating measures is required…elements of the package could include:
Conventional-nuclear firewall
Separate basing
Unique trajectories and flight paths
Cooperative signature enhancement
Distinct CONOPs and mission planning
Shared early warning and on site inspections
Strategic Dialogue and advance notifications
Doctrine, Exercises, Gaming
Intended to represent advantage of trajectory planning (not an actual trajectory)
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