1. The California Energy Crisis Continuing Update Lon W. House, Ph.D. 530.676.8956 ACWA Energy Advisor

2. Gas Pipelines

3. Natural Gas Storage Facilities

4. New CA Gas Projects PGT-GTN and PG&E Company at Malin (1) Kern River Pipeline (2) SoCalGas - Wheeler Ridge and other in-state expansion (3) Kern River Lateral to High Desert (3) Transwestern pipeline expansion (4) Questar Southern Trails Pipeline (4) SoCalGas Line 6900 to SDG&E (5) North Baja to Mexico (6) 1 2 4 5 6 3

5. LNG Projects

6. Natural Gas Futures (April 30, 2003) –June ‘03 - $5.24 –June ‘03-Oct ‘03 - $5.33 –Balance ‘03 - $5.33 –12 month - $5.29 –2004 - $4.89 –2005 - $4.60

7. May 2003 Futures

8. Generation Additions in California

9. Energy Companies California Power Plants Withdrawn: 2000634 MW withdrawn 20011,591 MW withdrawn 20032,821 MW withdrawn

10. Delayed/Cancelled Projects

11. Will We Make It Through The Next Two Years?

12. Electricity Price Forecasts

14. Important Decisions Self-Generation - CPUC D.03-04-030 Departing Load Obligation - exemptions Generating before February 1, 2001 Biogas digestors <1 MW and subject to net metering (solar) Eligible for CPUC/CEC self-generation programs: photovoltaics; wind turbines; fuel cells; microturbines, small gas turbines and internal combustion engines with waste heat recovery. No diesel or back-up >1 MW “ultra-clean and low emissions” do not pay DWR ongoing charges or HPC 3,000 MW cumulative total - do not have to pay DWR ongoing charges: 1500 MW renewable, nonrenewable generation amounts caps: –2004600 MW –7/1/2008500 MW –2008+ 400 MW

15. Technical Assistance Available $50/kW. Can be either equipment or behavior. $25/kW when expected load drop certified by registered engineer, $25/kW when 50% of estimated load is dropped Has to have advanced meter ( interval meter, communication pathway, and internet-based access to usage information) Reduction = load drop from average of same hour in 3 highest use days during the past two weeks CPP - Critical Peak Pricing - All Utilities –5 to 15 summer weekdays/year, notification the day before –CPP days: 3-6pm energy 5x regular on peak price noon-3 and 6-7pm energy 3x partial peak price –Non CPP days - energy costs discounted –Rate protection available - never pay more than under old tariff HPO - Hourly Pricing Option - SDG&E –Day ahead price signal DBP - Demand Biding Program - All Utilities –You offer amount and price –Between noon and 8 pm weekdays –Triggered when energy price >15¢/kWh –Emergency test trigger twice a year for less than 4 hours, will pay you 50¢/kWh Important Proposed Decision in R.02-06-001

16. Conclusions/ Recommendations High electricity (through 2011) and probably natural gas prices around for awhile Traditional tariffs (I-6) disappearing Regulatory agencies eventually want to go to real-time pricing for everyone Take advantage of technical assistance $$ now, figure out what you can do before you have to do it Look into demand reduction pilot programs (e.g. CPP) to test your operational changes while you are still protected on the down side Stay tuned, the California Energy Crisis just keeps on happening