1. A Political Perception Map of the Palestinians HAMANAKA Shingo, Ph.D. Yamagata University, JAPAN World Congress for Middle Eastern Studies, Multiple Identity of the Arab People based on the Results of Recent Poll Survey-Panel Part 2: Political Perception Map of Arab People (1) Outline (2) Illustration of a Map Data and Methods Political Perception Map (3) Analysis Hypotheses and Procedure Regressions and Findings (4) Conclusion Contents

2. Research Subject Middle Eastern specialists depend on the framework of International Politics, especially “balance of power” or “the modern state system.” However, nobody has ever tried to depict the Middle Eastern Regional System explicitly. My research subject is to present a visualization of the ME Regional System. (1) Outline 2

3. Syrian Political Perception Map - Comparison Bipolar System Similarity to the US Hegemony in the Eastern Arab region Source: Aoyama and Hamanaka (2009) (1) Outline 3

4. Egyptian Political Perception Map - Comparison Similarity to the US Source: Aoyama (2010) Uruba Arab System? Great Powers Middle Powers? (1) Outline 4

5. Political Perception Map of the Palestinians Great Powers Middle Eastern Regional System (1) Outline Identity and consciousness 5

6. Constructivism This approach proposes that the concept of identity determines interactive process between states. My project follows this idea to depict a political perception map by the identities of the Palestinians. (1) Outline 6

7. Research Strategy I will use Factor Analysis to illustrate the political perception map of Palestinians. The map is composed of invisible factors behind the attitudes or opinions on the Middle Eastern Politics. In regression models, I will find the effect of ideologies, policy alternatives, and personal information path on Uruba and policy similarity to the US. (1) Outline 7

8. Remaining Contents (2) Illustration of a Map –Data and Methods –Political Perception Map (3) Analysis –Hypotheses and Procedure –Regressions and Findings (4) Conclusion 8

9. Palestinian Survey Data Sample: 18-65 year old residents of the West Bank, the Gaza Strip, and East Jerusalem Sampling Method: Stratified three stage random sample of 800 participants JMCC conducted face-to-face interviews in May 2009. (2) Illustration of a Map - Data and Methods- 9

10. Questions for Factor Analysis “To what extent are the following 23 countries tackling political issues in the ME, thereby helping to establish political stability in the ME?” (2) Illustration of a Map - Data and Methods- 10

11. “To what extent are the following 23 countries tackling political issues in the ME, thereby helping to establish political stability in the Middle East?” ( 1)Very much كثيراً جداً (2)Quite much كثيراً (3)Moderately متوسط (4)Not very much ليس كثيرا (5)Not at all أبداً (6)Undecided لا أعرف 1 Turkey (1)(2)(3)(4)(5)(6) 2 Iran (1)(2)(3)(4)(5)(6) 3 United Kingdom(1)(2)(3)(4)(5)(6) 4 Syria (1)(2)(3)(4)(5)(6) 5 Russia (1)(2)(3)(4)(5)(6) (2) Illustration of a Map - Data and Methods- 11

12. Factor Analysis - Image Factor loading 1 st Factor 2 nd Factor (2) Illustration of a Map - Data and Methods- 12

13. Factor Matrix countries1 st Factor2 nd Factor Turkey0.330.13 Iran0.47-0.06 UK-0.020.78 Syria0.64-0.11 Russia0.130.41 Saudi0.630.13 Lebanon0.54-0.09 China-0.030.33 Iraq0.39-0.06 France0.050.56 Palestine0.510.04 S Korea0.02-0.04 N Korea-0.03-0.15 Israel-0.090.76 Egypt0.440.39 America-0.141.04 Japan-0.010.58 Germany0.040.6 UAE0.82-0.05 Qatar0.82-0.13 Kuwait0.77-0.05 Jordan0.60.32 Canada0.10.36 13

14. Political Perception Map (2) Illustration of a Map - Political Perception Map- Great Powers Middle Eastern Regional System 14 “Identities are not only personal or psychological, but are also social, influenced by the actor’s interaction with others.” S.Telhami and M.Barnett

15. What do two factors mean? (2) Illustration of a Map - Political Perception Map- The horizontal factor is composed of countries in the Arabian Peninsula, and in the Fertile Crescent. It means Uruba. The United States gets the highest score of the vertical factor and Western countries follow the US. It means foreign policy similar to the US. 15

16. What is the cognitive construct in the Map? Uruba Policy similar to the US Identity and PerceptionIdeologies and opinions (3) Analysis - Hypotheses and Procedure- 16

17. Implications The main component of the Map is Uruba. Egypt, Turkey, Saudi Arabia, and Jordan occupy the center position of the Map. These powers have the gravity in the international system. Data analyses support the literature that political ideologies affect the attitudes or opinions on politics. (4) Conclusion 17

18. Political Ideologies – ordered scale 1 st choice 2 nd choice3 rd choice Arab Nationalism Palestinian Nationalism Marxism Islam Christianity Liberalism Tribalism Which ideological/ political trends are you sympathized with? Please select up to three trends and put numbers (1,2 or 3) in order of priority. 3 points 2 points1 point (3) Analysis - Hypotheses and Procedure- 18

19. Policy Options – nominal scale (1) independent Palestinian state in the territories occupied since 1967 YesNo (2) independent Palestinian state in the historic PalestineYesNo (3) bi-national state in the Israelis and the Palestinians coexist YesNo (4) Returning the Palestinian refugeesYesNo (5) Naturalizing the Palestinian refugees in the countries where they now live YesNo (6) Improving the living conditionsYesNo (7) Reconciling the Palestinian political factionsYesNo (8) Disarming the resistanceYesNo (9) Impossible to realize a sustainable peaceYesNo (3) Analysis - Hypotheses and Procedure- 19

20. Personal Influence – nominal scale (1) Family/relatives YesNo (2) Neighbors YesNo (3) Friends and Colleagues YesNo (4) Superiors at work YesNo (5) Powerful local figures (tribal sheikhs, notables, zaims) YesNo (6) Religious leaders YesNo (7) Members of political parties and militias YesNo (8) Political leaders (Member of Parliament, local politicians) YesNo (9) Government YesNo (10) Media YesNo (3) Analysis - Hypotheses and Procedure- 20

21. Media Information – ordered scale 1 Local Newspapers, magazines (1) Regularly (2) Not Regularly (3) Moderately (4) Rarely (5) Never 2 Newspapers, magazines (other Arab countries) 3 Newspapers, magazines (other non-Arab) 4 Regular TV (local) 5 Satellite TV (of other Arab countries) 6 Satellite TV (of other non-Arab countries) 7 Radio (local) 8 Radio (of other Arab countries) 9 Radio (of other non- Arab countries) 10 Internet 11 SMS, E-mail 12 Telephone 13 Through words of mouth (direct communication) (3) Analysis - Hypotheses and Procedure- 21

22. Regression Models on Uruba (3) Analysis - Regressions and Findings- 22

23. Results of the regression models Both Arab nationalism and Islam have a statistically significant impact on Uruba. Positive Impact on Uruba –Support a state in the historical Palestine –Under the influence of neighbors –Getting information from Arab Satellite TV Negative Impact on Uruba –Support disarmament of resistance –Under the influence of the Government (3) Analysis - Regressions and Findings- 23

24. Regressions on policy similar to the US (3) Analysis - Regressions and Findings- 24

25. Results of the regression models Both Arab nationalism and Islam have a negative impact on policies similar to the US. The direction of policy alternatives is almost same as them of the US. –Bi-National State, and Disarmament are positive –Return of Refugee, and Improvement of Living are negative Non-Arab media watchers and listeners are positive to Middle East policies of the US. (3) Analysis - Regressions and Findings- 25