1. EUROPEAN TOPIC CENTRE ON AIR AND CLIMATE CHANGE Background to emissions projections from agriculture in the Monitoring Mechanism Ann Gardiner

2. EUROPEAN TOPIC CENTRE ON AIR AND CLIMATE CHANGE What do we want to do? wTo understand - –the likely level of greenhouse gas emissions in first commitment period if no new policies and measures implemented, and the uncertainty –the effect of policies and measures already implemented –the effect of new policies and measures wTo understand - –the likely level of greenhouse gas emissions in first commitment period if no new policies and measures implemented, and the uncertainty –the effect of policies and measures already implemented –the effect of new policies and measures

3. EUROPEAN TOPIC CENTRE ON AIR AND CLIMATE CHANGE How?How? wBy analysing projections and comparing MS and EU-wide projections wBy identifying key uncertainties wHelping spread Best Practice in projections wBy analysing projections and comparing MS and EU-wide projections wBy identifying key uncertainties wHelping spread Best Practice in projections

4. Main issues wReporting wIntegration of EU-wide policies and measures into projections of emissions wReporting wIntegration of EU-wide policies and measures into projections of emissions

5. EUROPEAN TOPIC CENTRE ON AIR AND CLIMATE CHANGE Reporting requirements wAnnual report to Monitoring Mechanism - can be the National Climate Change Programmes or National Communications to UNFCCC wReporting requirements given in Guidelines agreed by Working Groups I and II and the Committee wLargely based on UNFCCC guidelines wAnnual report to Monitoring Mechanism - can be the National Climate Change Programmes or National Communications to UNFCCC wReporting requirements given in Guidelines agreed by Working Groups I and II and the Committee wLargely based on UNFCCC guidelines

6. EUROPEAN TOPIC CENTRE ON AIR AND CLIMATE CHANGE Projections reporting 2002 wEleven countries reported with measures projections wSeven countries also reported with additional measures projections wMost countries did not report the methodology wOnly two countries reported parameters underlying the projections wEleven countries reported with measures projections wSeven countries also reported with additional measures projections wMost countries did not report the methodology wOnly two countries reported parameters underlying the projections

7. EUROPEAN TOPIC CENTRE ON AIR AND CLIMATE CHANGE Member State Projections

8. Recommendations from workshop on energy projections wUse standard format table for reporting policies and measures - some improvements to the format suggested wClearly state which policies and measures are included in each projection wImprove detail in EU-wide evaluation of CCPMs wShare Good Practice in evaluation of policies and measures - manual being developed now through Working Group II wUse standard format table for reporting policies and measures - some improvements to the format suggested wClearly state which policies and measures are included in each projection wImprove detail in EU-wide evaluation of CCPMs wShare Good Practice in evaluation of policies and measures - manual being developed now through Working Group II

9. Recommendations from workshop on energy projections (ctd) w Each country should present a sensitivity analysis that takes into account the variables that are most sensitive in the respective country - WGII developing paper to help guide this analysis wReporting of parameters and assumptions should be improved - a paper listing mandatory and recommended parameters has been written and agreed by the WGII w Each country should present a sensitivity analysis that takes into account the variables that are most sensitive in the respective country - WGII developing paper to help guide this analysis wReporting of parameters and assumptions should be improved - a paper listing mandatory and recommended parameters has been written and agreed by the WGII

10. EUROPEAN TOPIC CENTRE ON AIR AND CLIMATE CHANGE Suggested improvements for reporting wReport methodology, projected activity and emissions factors wReport policies and measures - any that have a material effect, including for eg air pollution wReport assumptions on agricultural trade or give source of projections of activity wReport methodology, projected activity and emissions factors wReport policies and measures - any that have a material effect, including for eg air pollution wReport assumptions on agricultural trade or give source of projections of activity

11. Integration of EU-wide policies and measures in emissions projections wHow is the effect of CAP incorporated into emissions projections? wIs there sufficient information available to MS on EU-wide agricultural scenarios? wHow can communication be improved? wAre there regional issues that need to be addressed at the regional level? wAre there existing networks for sharing Good Practice? wHow is the effect of CAP incorporated into emissions projections? wIs there sufficient information available to MS on EU-wide agricultural scenarios? wHow can communication be improved? wAre there regional issues that need to be addressed at the regional level? wAre there existing networks for sharing Good Practice?