1. National Climatic Data Center Status of Continental Indicators for NADM Richard R. Heim Jr. NOAA/NESDIS/National Climatic Data Center Asheville, North Carolina North American Drought Monitor Forum Asheville, NC, USA – 20 April 2010

2. National Climatic Data Center NADM History November 2001 – “Troika” Meeting (US, CN, MX)  Agree in principle to establish climate extremes monitoring partnership (*)  First, develop monthly continental drought monitoring capabilities  Eventually assess long-term variability and trends in extremes (**) April 2002 Workshop – Plans for NADM  One day devoted to discussion on the new drought monitoring program for North America April 2003 – First experimental NADM map released to public November 2003 – Addition of French and Spanish translations of map (* NACEM) (** National Climate Preparedness & Potential IPCC Applications)

3. National Climatic Data Center NADM Participant Responsibilities Responsibilities & Procedure  Each country determines drought depiction & narrative within their national boundaries  NADM lead authorship rotates amongst the participants  US: NOAA (NCDC, CPC), USDA (JAWF), NDMC  Canada : AAFC, MSC  Mexico: SMN http://www.ncdc.noaa.gov/oa/climate/monitoring/drought/nadm/index.html  NADM lead author integrates national drought assessments from each country, prepares continental monthly map & narrative  Continental indicators used for international boundaries  All participants peer review product

4. National Climatic Data Center NADM Continental Drought Indicators The NADM drought conditions in US, MX, CN are determined independently based on different data, indices, & analyses within each country Drought indices covering entire continent are needed  Same indices, same analysis period, same methodologies  This consistency needed for depiction across international boundaries http://www.ncdc.noaa.gov/oa/climate/monitoring/drought/nadm/index.html

5. National Climatic Data Center NADM Continental Drought Indicators NADM Drought Indicators data base:  Mexico:  Monthly precipitation from 132 highest quality stations  Temperature from 65 high quality Observatory stations, plus 67 add’l stations  Canada: Monthly precipitation and temperature from approx. 200-300 daily near-real time stations (DLY02) http://www.ncdc.noaa.gov/oa/climate/monitoring/drought/nadm/index.html  U.S.  First set: –20-24 Alaska ASOS stations & 8 COOP stations along US-MX border –Climate division data for contiguous U.S.  Second set: –20-24 Alaska ASOS stations & 900-1000 contiguous U.S. COOP stations  Future: Climate Divisions for all 3 countries

6. National Climatic Data Center Two Contiguous U.S. Data Sets Climate DivisionsStations

7. National Climatic Data Center NADM Continental Drought Indicators For Percent of Average Precipitation (PCTPCP), Standardized Precipitation Index (SPI), & Palmer Drought Indices (PDI):  Period of record varies between countries and between stations within each country  Except p.o.r. is 1895-present for U.S. climate divisions  For the stations, p.o.r. generally begins in 1950 or earlier  Standardizing period is 1951-2001

8. National Climatic Data Center NADM Continental Drought Indicators Other indicators from other sources are also used  NOAA/NESDIS Satellite Vegetation Health Index  NOAA/CPC Leaky Bucket Soil Moisture Percentiles

9. National Climatic Data Center NADM Continental Drought Indicators Other indicators that could be used  University College London’s Global Drought Monitor

10. National Climatic Data Center Living Blended Paleo Drought Project Station data network across U.S., Canada, & Mexico 0.5 x 0.5 degree latitude/longitude grid, 11,398 gridpoints Fine spatial resolution for continental monitoring Will be updated operationally on a monthly basis This project is intended to expand our historical perspective Serially and spatially complete But it will have an operational component that can be used to support the NADM 11,398

11. National Climatic Data Center LBPD  NADM Operational Support The LBPD gridded data base can support:  NADM continental indicators (SPI, Palmer Indices, PCTPCP)  NADM Objective Blends  FMDI for North America

12. National Climatic Data Center Precipitation Climatologies for N. America Percent of annual precipitation maps Monthly, 3-Month Seasons, 6-Month Seasons

13. National Climatic Data Center USDM & NADM Objective Blends Objective blends integrate multiple indicators into a product update using a percentile ranking method All parameters are first rendered as percentiles with respect to a standard period using a percent rank method The parameters (drought indicators) are then combined using a weighting scheme Short- and Long-Term Blends produced Need serially complete data  Operationally produced weekly for USDM using NOAA/CPC’s real-time daily and weekly climate division data and NOAA/NCDC’s monthly archive of indices for 1932-2000  Experimental for NADM; monthly; use gridded temperature, precipitation, & Palmer index fields for North America; 1895-2005

14. National Climatic Data Center NADM Objective Blends Similar to USDM Objective Blends, but with different components and possibly different weights Would need serially complete data, so could not be computed on station data But could be computed on LBPD Project’s gridded data base USDM Objective Blends:

15. National Climatic Data Center USDM Objective Blends

16. National Climatic Data Center NADM Objective Blends Long-term blend components:  Palmer Hydrological Drought Index (30%)  60-month Palmer Z Index (20%)  60-month precipitation (20%)  24-month precipitation (10%)  12-month precipitation (10%)  6-month precipitation (10%) NADM percentiles based on 1895-2005 0.5x0.5-degree gridded data base Short-term blend components:  Palmer Z Index (35%)  3-month precipitation (30%)  1-month precipitation (25%)  Palmer Drought Index (10%)

17. National Climatic Data Center NADM – Web Services NADM web site – transitioning to interactive web site with GIS web services (within NIDIS Drought Portal environment) NADM indicators – overlay and analysis with NADM map boundaries using various visualization tools NADM indicator station, divisional, and gridded (from LBPD) data in relational data base for efficient access & analysis & interoperability between various projects & applications

18. National Climatic Data Center Thank You! Richard.Heim@noaa.gov NCDC Climate Monitoring Branch Reports & Products: http://www.ncdc.noaa.gov/oa/climate/research/monitoring.html NCDC State of the Climate Reports: http://www.ncdc.noaa.gov/sotc/ North America Drought Monitor: http://www.ncdc.noaa.gov/oa/climate/monitoring/drought/nadm/index.html U.S. Drought Monitor: http://drought.unl.edu/dm/monitor.html NIDIS: http://drought.gov/