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2 Leslaw Michnowski Co-founder of Sustainable Development Information Society Forum – Poland. Member of: - Committee for Futures Studies "Poland 2000 Plus" Polish Academy of Sciences; - the Polish Association for the Club of Rome; - the Polish delegation for the World Summit on the Information Society – Tunis, 2005. Chairman of Sustainable Development Creators Club - Poland,

3 It is extended paper presentation during plenary session of IFISI WORLD FORUM ON ICT STRATEGIES AND INVESTMENTS, in Marrakech, Morocco, 1- 3 March 2006 - http://www.virtualis- http://www.virtualis-

4 From STATEMENT BY H. E. MR. KOFI ANNAN THE SECRETARY-GENERAL OF THE UNITED NATIONS, WSIS, Tunis, 16 November 2005: This Summit (WSIS) (…) must push forward the outcome of the (2005) World Summit (…) It must lead to information and communications technologies being used in new ways, which will bring new BENEFITS TO ALL social classes. (…) THE HURDLE HERE IS MORE POLITICAL THAN FINANCIAL.

5 the sustainable development of our people (…) comprehensive vision for the future of humanity (…) poverty eradication, changing consumption and production patterns (…) pillars of sustainable development – economic development, social development and environmental protection (…). – WSSD - Johannesburg Declaration. Sustainable development (SD) of the world society is the most important goal of UN

6 I present systemic analysis results essence of: - GLOBAL CRISIS, - SUSTAINABLE DEVELOPMENT, and - INFORMATION FOUNDATIONS of sustainable development.

7 This analysis was done with help of – created by me - conceptual model of system: man – technology - environment: System of Life.

8 In System of Life approach (that is holistic) the global eco-system - system: man - technology – environment – as well as environment are LIFE-SYSTEMS and open systems. Therefore, the life of system: man-technology, depends on life, high quality and proper form of environment.

9 The development of system: man-technology (for example, world society or high developed societies) depends on development of environment.


11 For sustainable development we need: - ability to recognize (with help of warning forecasting system) approaching limits to growth (p-t T), and - skill to cross them in developmental way.

12 Nowadays, the global eco-system – world society and natural environment – is in the State of Change (Flux) and Risk. It is qualitatively new state of life-conditions (inter alia access to natural resources) – caused by big science-technology (and organization) progress.

13 In the State of Change and Risk: - very high rate of changes in life-conditions (and environment); - big inertia of societies, economy and management; - lack of full knowledge about complex (including future) effects of human activity (in chaotic world).

14 In the State of Change and Risk a necessity of: - anticipation of changes in life-conditions, and - feedforward adaptation forms of life (technology, economy, value system, …) to approaching new life-conditions.

15 For life in the State of Change and Risk we have to create commonly accessible WORLDWIDE SD-INFORMATION SYSTEM for: - comprehensive monitoring, - far-sighted forecasting, and - measurable evaluation (assessment), of policy, economy, work, and other changes effects in life-conditions of human-beings and nature in general.

16 Comprehensive monitoring – such monitoring that delivers information also about: - quality of monitored life-process (is it development or crisis regression?), and - rate of development or regression (is it accelerate or delay?).


18 If E = mc2 (Einstein) and – probably – the amount of Universe energy is infinite - the access to deficit resources (energy in large sense) would depend on: human intellectual potential, knowledge, technology and time, that conditions it.

19 Nowadays, quite new life-conditions: environment has lost ability to recovery by itself. Therefore we have to give environment more than we take from it. But - in the State of Change and Risk - preparation for this giving ought to be based on the knowledge about FUTURE LIFE-NEEDS of environment.

20 In the State of Change and Risk - the main cause of the global eco-system degradation is rapidly pacing MORAL DEGRADATION (out-datedness, obsolescence) of existing forms of life – not fitted to new rapidly emergence life- conditions and life-needs.

21 Main cause of global crisis: World society and its economy is not fitted to life in the State of Change and Risk. World society has not ability for efficient elimination negative effects of MORAL DEGRADATION.

22 The main UN problems: How nowadays - in the State of Change and Risk – shape life of the world society ? How to develop ICT for life in above state?

23 To overcome global crisis we have (with help of ICT) to shape: - farsightedness; - flexibility, and - reserves creation ability, of world society.

24 We need also possibility of basing policy and economy on COMMON INTEREST (G. H. Brundtland, Our Common Future) VALUE SYSTEM

25 In the State of Change and Risk, instead of social-Darwinism (and structural unemployment) we need Ecohumanistic Intellectual Evolution – i.e. pre-selection in virtual reality (by means of computer simulation) aided by popular wisdom.

26 ECOHUMANISM is a partnership-based co-operation for the COMMON GOOD OF ALL PEOPLE (rich and poor, from countries highly developed and lag behind in development), their descendants, and natural environment - COMMONLY SUPPORTED by science and HIGH TECHNOLOGY.

27 Wisdom - ability to: - observe events in global eco-system; - get knowledge about processes combined with these events; - predict future of these processes; - assess these processes; - amplify (support) life-support processes, or - eliminate processes dangerous for life (of observer and environment).

28 Structural unemployment is not a result of science-technology progress. It is a result of pathological (social- Darwinistic) economy and education system. It is – as a first - a result of the world elite short-sightedness.

29 In order to achieve sustainable development of the world society we have to go through NEW SCIENCE–TECHNOLOGY REVOLUTION that allow to convert wastes into environment life-support agents.

30 THE MORE scientific-technology progress – THE MORE moral degradation, as well as THE MORE human labor - wisdom intellectual creativity – is essential for life and development

31 In the State of Change and Risk, i nstead of growth at the cost of (socio-natural) environment continuation, we need: - development together with environment, and - WISDOM BASED SOCIETY.

32 WISDOM BASED SOCIETY – such knowledge society that is based on: - commonly accessible knowledge about complex (including FUTURE) effects of human activity; - popular ability to create information (in N. Wiener sense, i.e. cognition and innovation activity), and - common interest value system – ECOHUMANISTIC one.

33 Long-term prediction and assessment of human activity complex effects and decreasing of moral degradation intensity as well as elimination of negative moral degradation aftermath - needs to base socio-economic activity on ecohumanistic (common-interest) value system

34 The shift from currently egoistic- to ecohumanistic- value system is a precondition to get popular access to large amount of knowledge, (existing and that new one, which ought to be permanently delivered) which is necessary for efficient: - warning forecasting and - designing means for elimination of moral degradation negative effects.

35 In cybernetics approach: no limits to WISDOM based growth and sustainable development It is consistent with P. Teilhard de Chardin OMEGA POINT conception.

36 The basic premise : i = B(n,q)1/s where: i - is the level of information (Wiener, 1971) – conceptual measure of level of development (and organization, as well as quality) of life-system; s - is the level of entropy as well as the level of development - reserves of life-system; n - is the number of its elements; q - is quality of elements of life system, and B(n,q) - some function connected with quantity and quality of system elements.

37 For sustainable development we need to combine: - economic development; - social development, and - environmental protection, in short- and long-term perspective

38 To achieve sustainable development we need to implement: - sustained economic growth; - fair globalization (including elimination of digital divide and unemployment), as well as - other fundamental UN Goals.

39 Sustainable development of the world society is essential to avoid global catastrophe (environmental, world war for access to deficit resources, clash of civilizations)

40 To avoid g lobal catastrophe we must create (as rapidly as possible – China, India!!!) information foundations of: - SD(sustainable development)-policy, and - SD-economy, as well as - large-scale flexible automation.

41 Worldwide SD-Information System (of systems) would be: - net and GRID (T. Utsumi) type; - continuously under development, and - created with help of System Dynamics in multi stage way (based on G. Nadler ideal method).

42 We ought to treat Meadowss – Forrester (Limits to Growth, Beyond the Limits, Limits to Growth 30 Years Update, …) System Dynamics warning forecasting as element of: worldwide early warning system (2005 World Summit Outcome, p-t. 56 f), as well as Worldwide SD-Information System.

43 As a next task we ought to build WORLDWIDE FLEXIBLE AUTOMATION SYSTEM

44 These tasks ought to be preceded by INTERNATIONAL RESEARCH, which will describe: - conditions for creation the information foundations of: SD-policy and SD-economy - i.e. the ways of ICT development for life in the State of Change and Risk.

45 Effects of above research would be presented during at least three international conferences of International forum on a wisdom-based global information society – towards sustainable development of the world society

46 Conference I: Information efficiency and warning forecasting as preconditions of SD-policy and SD-economy (2007) Main tasks: 1. How to get policy-makers - and societies - access to knowledge about complex (and future) effects of current policy (their own and other policy-makers)? 2. How to combine existing forecasting systems and projects (i.a. Meadowss-Forrester, T. Utsumi, GEOSS) in Worldwide SD- Information System. 3. How to get access to dates and knowledge that are necessary for warning forecasting and elimination of negative moral degradation effects? 4. How to transform national and regional statistical offices (e.g. EUROSTAT) into offices for statistic and warning forecasting.

47 Conference II: Computer simulation methods for SD-economy (2009) Main tasks: 1. How to build information bases of SD-economy. 2. How to make possible complex accounting of benefits and cost of socio-economic activity (including natural and social - human components). 3. How to make possible dividing effects of social process of work proportionally to ecosocial usefulness of individual and/or collective work.

48 Conference III: Flexible automation as important agent of sustainable development (2011) Main tasks: 1. How to aid, by flexible automation, the elimination of rapidly emergence dangers. 2. How to aid the fight with negative effects of moral degradation of forms of life? 3. How to accelerate other science-technology progress that is essential for sustainable development? 4. How to decrease ecological costs of distant transportation?

49 We - Sustainable Development Information Society Forum – Poland - will appreciate subsidy for the first stage of above research and Conference I of this complex, international project

50 Realization of above ICT development proposal is essential especially for: - INTERNALIZING EXTERNALITIES; - DECOUPLING (the range of economic growth from the range of deficit natural resources depletion growth and degradation of environment), and - COUPLING (the economic growth with social development, including popular quality of life growth).

51 Without realization of such as above WSIS follow-up it is impossible to: - conduct proper e-Governance; - achieve sustainable development of the world society, as well as - avoid global catastrophe.

52 Justification of above conclusions, inter alia, see: Michnowski, L.: - Jak żyć? Ekorozwój albo... (How to Live? Eco-development or..., - ; - How to Create Sustainable Development Global Information Society?, Poster for "Global Dialogue 2004" - ; - How to avoid the global catastrophe? The information basis for sustainable development policy and economy, in proceedings of the XX International Conference System Dynamics Society: Collegiality - a harmony that achieves consensus on the issues, July 25 - 29, 2004, Oxford, UK - ; - World Warning Forecasting for Sustainable Development - POSTER presentation on the XX International Conference System Dynamics Society, July 28 - August 1, 2002, Palermo, ITALY -­ ; - World Integrated Warning Forecasting System Based on System Dynamics Principles as a Basic Factor in Sustainable Development, in proceedings of the XX International Conference System Dynamics Society: Organizational Change Dynamics - Understanding Systems, Managing Transformation, July 28 - August 1, 2002, Palermo, ITALY - See also: ITU, Golden Book, p-t 7.6 - final.pdf,, and,."Global Dialogue 2004"


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