1. sawarmos finansuri analizis erT-erTi farTod gavrcelebuli meTodia koeficientebis meTodi. misi safuZvelia koeficientebis gamoangariSeba da faqtiuri mniSvnelobis Sedareba normatiulTan. es saSualebas gvaZlevs vimsjeloT sawarmos finansuri mdgomareobis calkeul aspeqtebze.

2. amJamad, sawarmos finansuri analizis mdgomareobis SefasebisTvis koeficientTa safuZvelze sxvadasxva meTodebi gamoiyeneba, romelTa Soris SeiZleba avRniSnoT: diuponis meTodi[15], „skoring“-is saxeliT cnobili statistikuri meTodebi[16], altmanis modeli[15], olsonis modeli[19], mravalfaqtoruli modelirebis, logistikis meTodebi

7. diuponis meTodiT faqtoruli analizis Catareba gviCvenebs mocemul maCveneblze sxva maCveneblebis moqmedebis xarisxs, mag., gayidvebis rentabelobis da kapitalis brunvadobis gavlenas kapitalis rentabelo- baze, anu imas Tu ris xarjze Seicvala kapitalis rentabeloba

8. Finansuri berketis efeqti: Rak(1-Kd)-G>0 sadac Rak- avansirebuli kapitalis saerTo sidide= mogeba gadasaxadebisa da sesxze % gadaxdamde/ sakuTari kapitali+nasesxebi kapitali Rak- avansirebuli kapitalis saerTo sidide= mogeba gadasaxadebisa da sesxze % gadaxdis Semdeg+finansuri danaxarjebi kred. dav. momsaxureobaze/ sakuTari kapitali+nasesxebi kapitali

9. nasesxebi kapitalis rentabeloba : Rnk= investorebisaTvis kreditze gadaxdili %/ valdebulebaTa saSualo wliuri sidide sakuTari kapitalis rentabeloba=mogeba % gadaxdis Semdeg/sakuTari kapitali avansirebuli kapitali=sakuTari kapitali+nasesxebi kapitali

10. finansuri berketis efeqti=((avansirebuli kapitalis rentabeloba(1-dabegvris koeficienti)-sesxebze % ganakveTi))*nasesxebi kapitali/sakuTar kapitalTan

11. maCveneblebiSawarmo 123 avan kapitalis sul2000 nasesxebi kapitali sakuTari kapitali200010005000 mogeba gadasaxebamde400 av. kap.rentabeloba mogebis gadasaxadi15 % mogeba gadasaxadebis Semdeg bankis % 10% wminda mogeba sakuTari kapitalis rentabeloba finansuri berketis efeqti

12. finansuri berketis efeqti Tu Semcirda % ganakveTi kreditebze finansuri berketis efeqti=(avansirebuli kapitalis rentabeloba- sesxebze % ganakveTi) (1-dabegvris koeficienti)*nasesxebi kapitali/sakuTar kapitalTan

13. finansuri leveriji= wminda mogebis zrdis tempi /mTliani mogebis zrdis temTan sawarmos leverijis done=mTliani mogebis tempi/gayidvebis moculobis matebis tempi sawarmoo-finansuri leveriji=finansuri leveriji*sawarmoo leverijze

14. mag. gayidvebis moculobis 30% gadidebis Sedegad mTliani mogeba izrdeba 40%, xolo wminda mogeba 50%. gaiangariSeT sawarmoo –finansuri leveriji. rogor Seicvleba sawarmos wminda mogeba Tu gayidvebis moculobis 10% Semcirdeba

15. AbC kapit. 1000 nasesxebi k.% 5075 mTliani mogeba 180200220180200220180200220 gadaxdili procenti 50 75 gadasaxadi 15% wminda mogeba sak. kapitalis ren.% mTliani mogebis zrdis tempi% wminda mogebis zrdis tempi% finansuri leveriji

19. gadaxdisunarianobis diskriminantuli maCveneblebis meTodi sawarmoTa gakotrebis prognozisTvis 1960 wlidan gamoiyeneba aSS-Si. meTodis avtorad e. altmani iTvleba. sawarmos finansuri mdgomareobis Sefasebis kuTxiT mravali gamokvleva iqna ganxorcielebuli. credit-men meTodisgan gansxvavebiT, koeficientebis mniSvnelobebis gamoangariSeba xorcieldeba diskriminantuli analizis gamoyenebiT. meTodis arsi Semdegia:

20. winaswar SerCeuli garkveuli maCveneblebiT erTmaneTs udareben sawarmoTa or jgufs. pirvel jgufSi gaerTianebulni arian sawarmoebi, romelebsac gadaxdis problemebi ara aqvT, xolo meore jgufis sawarmoebisTvis gadaxdebi problematuria; sxvadasxva statistikuri testebiT SeirCeva koeficientebi, romelTa saSualebiT airCeva gadaxdisunarianobis TvalsazrisiT mdgradi sawarmoebi; diskriminantuli analizis meTodebiT muSavdeba sawarmos gadaxdisunarianobis Sefasebis SerCeuli koeficintebis wrfivi kombinacia ;

23. finansuri koeficientebis meTodi, rogorc sawarmos gakotrebis prognozis saSualeba, pirvelad gamoyenebul iqna aSS - Si v. biveris [ Beaver, 1966] mier. is momuSave sawarmoebis gadaxdaunarianobis maCveneblebs adarebda gakotrebuli sawarmoebis analogiur maCveneblebs. man aRmoaCina, rom sawarmos gakotrebamde sakmaod adre stabilurad momuSave sawarmos maCvenebels Soris gansxvaveba sakmaod didi iyo.

24. fulmeris modeli SemuSavebuli iqna 60 mcire da saSualo sawarmoebis monacemebis damuSavebiT, romelTagan 30 gakotrebuli sawarmo iyo, xolo 30 ki _ normalurad momuSave wliuri balansiT 455 aTasi aSS dolariT. dasawyisSi modeli 40 koeficients Seicavda, bolos ki _ 9-s

26. Tu, maSin sawarmos gakotreba 100%- iania. erTi wlis prognozis SemTxvevaSi gakotrebis albaToba 0.98%-is, ori wlis ki _ 81%-is sizustiT miiRweva [Fulmer, 1984].

27. springeitis modeli SemuSavebul iqna 1978 wels, 1968 wels i. altmanis mier SemuSavebuli bijuri diskriminantuli analizis meTodis gamoyenebiT s. freizeris universitetSi l. springeitis mier. modelis SemuSavebis dasawyisSi finansuri analizis Casatareblad SerCeuli 19 maCveneblidan saboloo variantSi mxolod 4 maCvenebeli darCa. modelis zogadi saxe Semdegia:

29. Tu, maSin sawarmos gakotrebis Tavidan acileba SeuZlebelia. modelis SemuSavebisas springeitma daamuSava 40 sawarmos monacemebi da miiRo sawarmos gakotrebis saprognozo mniSvneloba 92,5% sizustiT. monacemebis damuSaveba potenciuri kreditoris gadaxdaunarianobis riskis gamoangariSebisas; kreditis aRebis pirobebis gansazRvrisas; sawarmos gayidvis an yidvis dros;

30. edvard-bell-olsonis modeli (EBO)

32. EBO modelis upiratesobani Semdegia: Tu sawarmos efeqtianobis kriteriumad aviRebT biznesis Rirebulebis maqsimizacias, maSin EBO modeli warmoadgens realuri sabalanso monacemebis gamoyenebiT sawarmos efeqtianobis gaangariSebis saSualebas. narCeni Semosavlis principi, romelsac EBO modeli ekuTvnis, dasavleTSi farTod gamoiyeneba sawarmos biznesis Sesafaseblad.

33. nebismieri iseTi modelis gamosayeneblad, romlis amosavali punqti momavalSi Semosavlebis diskontirebaa, maT Soris EBO modelis gamosayeneblad, saWiroa Semosavlebis prognozis ganxorcieleba. diskontirebis modelebSi Semosavlebis prognozis gakeTebisas prognozirebis periods or nawilad yofen. pirveli _ xanmokle periodi, romlis drosac yoveli sabazo periodisTvis xorcieldeba Semosavlebis pirdapiri prognozi da meore _ roca prognozirebis periodi SemosazRvruli ar aris da prognozi xorcieldeba saSualo sidideebis gamoyenebiT. am SemTxvevaSi EBO modeli Semdegi saxisaa :

34. aqtivebis gadidebuli an Semcirebuli Rirebulebis Cvenebis gaTvaliswinebis mizniT 1995-1996 wlebSi olsonisa da feltxamomis mier SemoTavazebulia pirveli modelis Semdegi modificirebuli varianti. Rirebulebis, rogorc dividendebis nakadis, gaangariSebis formula

41. altmanis azriT, erTi wlis prognozi SeiZleba gakeTdes 95%-iani albaTobiT. am dros pirveli tipis Secdoma SeiZleba 6% iyos, meore ki _ 3%. 1977 wels altmanma Tavis kolegebTan erTad SeimuSava SedarebiT zusti 7 faqtoriani modeli, romelic saSualebas iZleva 70%-iani albaTobiT gakeTebul iqnas sawarmos gakotrebis 5 wliani prognozi.

42. sawarmos ekonomikuri usafrTxoeba damokidebulia gare da Sinagan faqtorebze. gare faqtorebs miekuTvneba: samarTlebrivi baza, romelic aregulirebis qveynis ekonomikur da socialur ganviTarebas. gansakuTrebiT rTulia sawarmos ekonomikuri usafrTxoebis uzrunve l yofa strategiul doneze. aq ZiriTadad ori piroba unda iqnes Sesrulebuli: pirveli strategiuli ganviTarebis drois intervalis gansazRvra da meore _ warmo ebis process Tan unda erTvodes sawarmoo simZlavreebis, SromiTi, materialuri da energetikuli resursebis ganaxleb a, inovaciis procesi.